College football's most pivotal games for top 2026 Heisman Trophy contenders
Plenty of compelling head-to-head opportunities could define the 2026 Heisman Trophy race
The 2026 Heisman Trophy race is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in recent memory, and it starts with the quarterbacks. That position class for the 2026 NFL Draft seems to be on the weaker side, which means much of the top talent remains in college -- and it shows. Suddenly, what might have been a straightforward race for the college football's best player looks wide open.
There are 10 players currently listed on FanDuel Sportsbook with odds of +1600 or better to win the Heisman Trophy next season. Only one of these isn't a quarterback: Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith.
What makes the upcoming season particularly compelling are the head-to-head opportunities sprinkled throughout the schedule. From early-season showdowns like Arch Manning and Texas taking on Ohio State, to late-November clashes that could make or break a candidacy, the contenders will have multiple chances to separate themselves in the eyes of voters.
With so much talent and so many opportunities for one defining performance, the race will be as much about timing and narrative as it is about numbers. So, here's a look at the most pivotal game on the schedule for the top Heisman Trophy contenders in 2026.
CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (+800)
Pivotal game: at BYU (Oct. 17)
Notre Dame is tied with Oklahoma for the most Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks (4), but hasn't produced one since John Huarte in 1964. CJ Carr sits atop the 2026 preseason odds and will need to maximize a schedule short on marquee spots. The rivalry showdown with Miami on Nov. 7 will draw plenty of attention, but the road trip to BYU two weeks prior feels more pivotal. In a tough environment, against quality competition, a decisive performance could provide the perfect boost to Carr's campaign that puts him firmly in the national conversation and sets the tone for back the half of the season.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+800)
Pivotal game: at Texas (Oct. 24)
The early-season showdown with LSU -- now led by former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin -- will generate plenty of buzz in September, but Chambliss' Heisman Trophy case is more likely to hinge on what happens deeper into SEC play. An October trip to Texas to face Arch Manning could be the swing moment. If Ole Miss reaches Austin with momentum, that matchup would open a demanding three-week stretch that could feature two top-five caliber opponents, with Georgia also looming back in Oxford on Nov. 7.
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+950)
Pivotal game: Ohio State (Sept. 12)
Arch Manning's debut as Texas starter last season was underwhelming, a 14‑7 loss to Ohio State that left him trying to climb out of a hole he couldn't fully escape despite a strong late-season push. Now, another potential top-five matchup against the Buckeyes gives him a chance to rewrite the narrative. All eyes will be on Manning in Austin, and a standout performance that ends with a win this time could define Manning's early-season Heisman Trophy case and establish momentum that carries through the rest of a schedule heavy on nationally relevant matchups.
Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana (+1100)
Pivotal game: Ohio State (Oct. 17)
Week 8 of the 2026 college football season projects to be a loaded slate, with a rematch of the Big Ten Championship Game and the past two national title winners coming to Bloomington. It's the biggest game ever played at "The Rock," with new transfer quarterback Josh Hoover set to lead Indiana against Ohio State. Last season, Fernando Mendoza essentially locked in his 2025 Heisman Trophy with his performance in a win over the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers will likely be 6‑0 heading into this clash, and Hoover could already be among the FBS leaders in passing stats. It's the first of back-to-back opportunities to make a statement, with a road trip to Michigan following the next week.
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+1300)
Pivotal game: Oregon (Nov. 7)
Jeremiah Smith absolutely torched the Oregon defense the two times Ohio State faced them in 2024. He totaled 16 catches for 287 yards and three touchdowns, all in about seven quarters of action before not being targeted in the fourth quarter of a blowout CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl. That kind of production makes him impossible to ignore, but winning the Heisman as a wide receiver is still a steep hill -- especially with quarterback Julian Sayin sharing the spotlight and stats. In fact, only twice in the past 28 years has a non-quarterback or non-running back claimed the prestigious award.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+1300)
Pivotal game: at Indiana (Oct. 17)
Julian Sayin enters 2026 as one of the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy, and he won't have many quiet moments on the schedule. Of the 15 other quarterbacks with the best odds, he'll face five head-to-head this season, including potential top-five matchups that could define the race. A poor performance or even a loss won't derail his campaign, but strong showings in marquee games are essential. If Ohio State can beat Texas on the road in Week 2, it could set up a battle of unbeatens with the past two national champions when they visit Indiana -- a true statement game for Sayin's Heisman case.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1300)
Pivotal game: at Ohio State (Nov. 7)
Dante Moore passed up a chance to be a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to return to Oregon, aiming to refine his game and lead the Ducks on a deeper postseason run. A Big Ten opener road trip to USC against quarterback Jayden Maiava will draw early attention, but November is what voters tend to remember. Recency bias is real in the Heisman Trophy race, and a late-season trip to Ohio State could carry far more weight. If Moore delivers in Columbus -- against a contender, in a hostile environment -- it could define his candidacy at the moment ballots begin to take shape.
Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (+1500)
Pivotal game: at Notre Dame (Nov. 7)
A November road trip to Notre Dame carries more national juice than any other game on Miami's schedule in 2026. Sure, an earlier test at Clemson shouldn't be overlooked, but the next chapter of the rivalry comes against the current national title favorites and Heisman frontrunner CJ Carr. When Cam Ward won the award two seasons ago, he consistently put up eye-popping numbers despite the Hurricanes taking a couple losses in the final few weeks.
Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia (+1600)
Pivotal game: at Alabama (Oct. 10)
Only two Georgia quarterbacks have ever won in Tuscaloosa: Matthew Stafford (2007) and David Greene (2002). Neither was especially sharp -- both completed under 60% of their passes with two interceptions and two touchdowns -- but they escaped with narrow victories. If Gunner Stockton leads the Bulldogs to a win against Alabama this season, it would mark a defining road statement for Georgia and immediately elevate his Heisman Trophy stock entering the back half of the schedule.
Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU (+1600)
Pivotal game: Alabama (Nov. 7)
Similar to Ohio State, Alabama is the kind of program that draws national attention, and the matchup with the Crimson Tide could fall at a perfect point for LSU and new quarterback Sam Leavitt. Lane Kiffin put everything on the table to bring the Arizona State transfer to Baton Rouge, and a strong performance against Alabama would give Leavitt the signature moment voters remember in a Heisman Trophy campaign.
