Gauging what to make of programs with new coaches is particularly challenging in the modern age of college football, when rosters can be flipped in a span of weeks with a quick wave of the portal wand. We've seen previously unfathomable one-year turnarounds at schools like Indiana, followed by monumental first-year flops at schools like North Carolina.
If you're willing to look under the hood and dissect the nuances of each situation, there is value to be found from a betting perspective with new regimes. A year ago, Wake Forest's over on a 4.5 win total was priced at +116, and it hit before the end of October as the Demon Deacons rode a favorable schedule to an 8-4 mark under first-year coach Jake Dickert.
That was among the five bets included in this column, which is now in its fifth year. Four of them hit, as my four-year record on win totals improved to 15-3 with five pushes. This year, we are returning to the first-year coach vein for three of our five selections.
The first season is not always an indicator of a coach's future viability for a variety of reasons. Wildly imbalanced conference schedules are a major swing factor, and that's a large part of the rationale for my faith in Penn State. New coach Matt Campbell's learning curve will be made simpler by the absence of three Big Ten heavyweights from the Nittany Lions' 2026 schedule.
My degree of confidence in these is high, and a 3-2 record with these odds is guaranteed to break even. If you want to go bold and take Arkansas to go under 3.5 and/or go with Minnesota over 6.5, the payout could be even better. Here are the 2026 season's best bets, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Penn State: Over 9.5 wins (+140)
A schedule that misses Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon will ease Matt Campbell's transition from Iowa State to Penn State. The Nittany Lions' nonconference slate of Marshall, Temple and Buffalo is also light, and five of Penn State's nine league games are at home. Campbell's Iowa State-heavy transfer class is the No. 4-ranked haul in the country, and a nice sampling of talent from the James Franklin era is still around. Among them are a star left tackle in Anthony Donkoh, a veteran leader at linebacker in Tony Rojas and a proven starter at corner in Audavion Collins. All told, the conditions are optimized for the Nittany Lions to win 10 or 11 regular-season games and crack the CFP in Year 1 of the new regime.
Minnesota: Over 5.5 wins (-160)
Minnesota's rushing offense is mired in an uncharacteristic lull that should end in 2026 behind an offensive line that features an NFL Draft prospect at guard in Greg Johnson and a 2025 freshman All-American at tackle in Nathan Roy. Furthermore, Drake Lindsey is back at quarterback after a promising redshirt freshman campaign. He should only improve when defenses have to respect the Gophers' rushing attack again. Minnesota also misses Ohio State and Oregon, leaving an Oct. 31 game at Indiana as the only contest that looks outright unwinnable. Even when you write in losses against Michigan, at Indiana and at Penn State, the Gophers still have plenty of wiggle room to reach six wins. If you're a big believer, taking the over 6.5 will bring a significantly better payout.
Arkansas under 4.5 (-200)
First-year coach Ryan Silverfield is due for a rude welcome to the SEC. Not only is he arriving just as the league goes to a nine-game conference schedule, but the Razorbacks also face a Week 2 road trip to play Utah. As the school's administration has pointed out with great ire, that late-night contest (at altitude) will be followed by a noon Eastern kick against Georgia the following week. The hits keep coming with trips to Texas A&M and Texas, along with tricky home games against established programs like Tennessee and Missouri. A second straight 2-10 campaign is possible. But even if the Razorbacks pull a couple of league upsets, it's hard to fathom a universe in which they reach 5-7 with a totally overhauled roster featuring inexperienced quarterback options. The under 3.5 comes with a significantly better payout and should also be considered by those with bullish tastes.
Iowa State: under 5.5 (-220)
After Matt Campbell's 3-9 debut in 2016, the Cyclones only failed to reach six regular-season victories once in his next nine years, creating an impression that perhaps Iowa State had leveled up its floor. But as the program reboots under Jimmy Rogers, a bottoming out could be in store. This is a total scrape-and-rebuild. While Rogers is bringing 15 players with him from Washington State, he was only there for a single 7-6 season. It's not as if the bedrock of an established program is arriving, as we often see with other first-year coaches. While the Big 12 schedule isn't brutal -- the Cyclones miss Texas Tech and Houston -- Iowa State will likely need to win four conference games to cash the over. It's hard to see this ISU roster grinding out four league wins in Year 1 with the nation's 67th-ranked transfer class.
BYU over 8.5 (-150)
Of the other three Big 12 teams that reached double-digit victories last season, BYU only has to play one as part of a schedule featuring five Big 12 home games. There is no Texas Tech on the slate and no Houston. The toughest road game is a quick bus ride down I-15 to play rival Utah, which is in the midst of a coaching transition. With key playmakers back throughout the defense, the only real question is who will emerge to catch passes from star sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier. He's got 1,300-yard rusher LJ Martin back, and the Cougars are poised to field another group of maulers on the offensive line. This program is absolutely humming under Kalani Sitake and should reach double-digit victories for a third straight season. If you're a big believer, find over 9.5 for a better return.
