Way-too-early College Football Playoff projection for 2026 season: Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana on top

The college football offseason is upon us, but it's never too early to look at potential College Football Playoff threats with spring practice set to commence a few weeks from now. The transfer portal has closed and rosters are finalized, offering an early look at the nation's most talented teams, including those with a shot at a breakthrough in the postseason.

No changes are coming to the CFP format in 2026 with the bracket remaining at 12 teams, fresh off Indiana's unprecedented run to an unbeaten season and national championship. Could Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers repeat that level of heightened success next season? 

Recent history in the CFP expansion era suggests just getting into the dance is top priority. As the last team in last fall over Notre Dame, 10th-seeded Miami went through a multi-week gauntlet to reach the title game. Before that, eighth-seeded Ohio State won four matchups against elite competition to win the national championship.

Don't assume grabbing one of the top four seeds with an opening-round bye is advantageous, either. Those teams are just 1-7 over the first two years of the expanded format.

The CFP announced its schedule for the 2026-28 installments on Tuesday, including next season's semifinal games that won't be played until Jan. 14-15, 2027.

Here's a glance at how we see the 12-team CFP bracket shaking out during the 2026 season, eight months before we kick off in Week 1:

College Football Playoff schedule

Quarterfinals 

First round

Projected College Football Playoff field breakdown

1. Miami

There's no recency bias here coming out of the Hurricanes' national championship appearance. Mario Cristobal has another Infinity Gauntlet-like roster, landing his own Thanos of sorts after Duke quarterback Darian Mensah's recent transfer. Pairing Mensah with superstar wideout Malachi Toney means the Hurricanes should have an explosive attack for the third consecutive year in the passing game under OC Shannon Dawson. Outgoing pass rusher Rueben Bain's recent admission that Miami's defensive line "might be better" without him is quite worrisome for the rest of the ACC.

2. Notre Dame

Graced with a playoff assurance next season and a schedule that's the most favorable in the country among contenders, it would take a cataclysmic fall for the Fighting Irish not to be included in the 12-team bracket. Notre Dame plucked a half-dozen new likely starters from the transfer market and anticipates a Heisman-like season out of rising sophomore quarterback C.J. Carr, who won 10 straight starts to end his freshman campaign.

3. Texas

The Longhorns learned the hard way in 2025 that an early season loss to an elite opponent before SEC play backs your team into a corner a bit. Schedule strength within the SEC is supposed to be a priority for the selection committee, per Steve Sarkisian, and in 2026, we think it's going to benefit his team. If Texas topples Ohio State in Austin on Sept. 12, that will give the Longhorns some breathing room in the playoff discussion later on. And with new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, chances are he has already glanced at Buckeyes film. With Arch Manning back and numerous impactful, highly coveted transfers joining the roster this spring, this could potentially be Sarkisian's best team at Texas, which includes two previous playoff semifinals appearances.

4. Indiana

The first of four Big Ten teams in our projected field, there will be no underestimating the Hoosiers this time around. Led by arguably the best coach in college football following Curt Cignetti's extraordinary rise, Indiana's roster will take the field with a level of high-end expectations in 2026 and their own book to write. Cignetti has appropriately called this "Chapter 3," and with a transfer class ranked inside the top 10 in terms of overall talent, may not have to turn water to wine this time around.

5. Texas Tech

Joey McGuire pulled the right strings to get the Red Raiders to the playoff this season, taking the field with a better roster than others in the Big 12 courtesy of portal resources and then executing on gameday. Texas Tech's not reinventing the wheel with its encore attempt after signing Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby as its new leader along with a substantial revamp defensively. Leadership losses in Lubbock are difficult to quantify, however. You don't just replace a multi-year starter like linebacker Jacob Rodriguez in the portal without some production drop off.

6. Georgia

Another year of Gunner Stockton, no significant changes to his coaching staff and several notable defenders coming back means Kirby Smart should feel good about this team's chances at returning to the bracket. The Bulldogs miss Texas and LSU during the regular season, two opponents with comparable rosters. Look for signifiant improvements defensively, which is what played a sizable role in both of the Bulldogs' losses that ended the 2025 campaign earlier than expected.

7. Oregon

The Ducks' outlook improved dramatically after the unexpected news of quarterback Dante Moore's return, a couple days after Oregon signed Nebraska's Dylan Raiola as an insurance policy of sorts at the position. He'll rectify any issues that arise following offensive coordinator Will Stein's exit to Kentucky. Dan Lanning had to replace his veteran defensive coordinator, too, handling each with internal promotions. Oregon has to be hurting after consecutive elite finishes culminated with playoff blowouts -- once in the quarters to Ohio State and January's drubbing at the hands of Indiana in the semis.

8. Ohio State

The last time the Buckeyes made the playoff as the No. 8 seed, they won four straight games en route to a national championship. While it's the ideal end result, there's going to be doubt associated with the 2026 entering the postseason given how difficult the schedule is for Ryan Day's team. Not only will Ohio State go to Texas in September, the Buckeyes have to deal with Indiana, Oregon, Michigan and USC in conference play. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith may be terrific, but that's a daunting slate.

9. LSU

Lane Kiffin wanted this. No coach in the SEC faces more immediate pressure at his new job in 2026. For the second straight offseason, the program's biggest donors went all-in to fund a massive transfer portal haul that includes the top quarterback, offensive tackle and edge rusher. Anything short of a playoff appearance will be a failure no matter how you slice it, especially after Kiffin did more with less at Ole Miss. Speaking of the Rebels, unless quarterback Trinidad Chambliss wins his appeal, they're going to suffer some regression.

10. Texas A&M

At +1500 to win the national championship next season, Texas A&M's worth a longshot flyer. The Aggies are 19-7 the last two seasons and nearly secured a top four seed last fall before a rivalry weekend loss to Texas nullified that opportunity. Marcel Reed returns at quarterback, along with offensive playmakers Rueben Owens and Mario Craver. The biggest question is what the offensive line will look like after replacing every starter. All but one member of the Aggies' 2026 signing class are early enrollees, so Mike Elko's going to get an extended look at his roster during the spring. With a head-to-head loss at LSU during the regular season, the two-loss Aggies finish a spot behind the Tigers according to this projection.

11. Memphis 

Maybe we're giving first-year coach Charles Huff too much love, but this was a great hire for the Tigers. He's a winner, and the NIL situation at Memphis is better than most Group of Six programs. This will be a team full of transfers (50), including 17 from Power programs and more than a dozen ex-Southern Miss starters who helped Huff win seven games in his only season after a previous 1-11 finish. To garner 11-seed billing, Memphis would be a one-loss, AAC champion with notable wins over Tulane, USF and a split of UNLV and Boise State (on the road) in the non-conference.

12. Michigan

An early season win over Oklahoma win come in clutch for first-year Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham, who has more assets with the Wolverines than he ever possessed at Utah. Whittingham often gets the most out of his roster, and with enhanced resources, he should quickly push Michigan back in the playoff conversation. In this scenario as the 10-seed, the Wolverines would become the playoff's second-ever three-loss team, but first to not reach their league title game to get in. The losses? Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State.