Oklahoma v Alabama
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The 2025 College Football Playoff field has been set with four first-round games set to kick off this weekend. Two of them are rematches of regular-season games, but all four have serious intrigue. 

Last year, none of the first-round games ended in seeded upsets. In fact, the higher seeds won by an average of 19.3 points per game. Don't think that precedent means much, though. There are some serious opportunities in the first round this year. 

One key adjustment to the field is getting rid of the automatic first-round byes for conference champions. Without it, seeds 5-8 are actually the fifth- through eighth-rated teams in the country instead of teams pushed down by the lack of conference championship status. With that said, here's how we rank the most likely upsets in the first round of the College Football Playoff from least to most likely. 

Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook.

4. (12) James Madison vs. (5) Oregon

Line: James Madison +21.5

The Dukes earned their way to the College Football Playoff by winning the Sun Belt and posted a 12-1 record. At the same time, it's fair to say, it's not a great matchup going on the road to play Oregon. The Ducks rank No. 3 in FEI, joining Indiana as the only team in the College Football Playoff to rate top-six in both offense and defense. They beat opponents by more than 21 points per game, including a 41-7 win against Oregon State in their only game against a Group of Five opponent. 

James Madison is close behind, beating opponents by 20.3 points per game, best in the Group of Five. But in their only game against a Power Four opponent, they mustered just 14 points in a loss to Louisville. The offense has progressed since then, especially with the emergence of star running back Wayne Knight.

3. (11) Tulane vs. (6) Ole Miss

Line: Tulane +17.5

When these two teams played in September, the Rebels pummeled Tulane 45-10 in what proved to be one of their best wins of the season. But over the last three months, nearly everything has changed in Oxford with the departure of Lane Kiffin. Pete Golding heads into his first game with an offensive staff stuck in limbo with a few set to leave for Baton Rouge after the season. 

That said, the Green Wave have their work cut out trying to protect inconsistent quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The senior completed a paltry 5-of-17 passes for 56 yards in the loss. There aren't necessarily better answers available to offensive coordinator Joe Craddock the second time around. 

2. (10) Miami vs. (7) Texas A&M

Line: Miami +3.5

This game has a chance to be one of the best matchups of the College Football Playoff. Both the Hurricanes and Aggies established themselves as serious national contenders early in the season, but limped to the finish line to enter the field lower than expected. 

However, the matchup arguably features the only teams outside of the top five that can seriously contend for a championship if things break right. For Miami, defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. and quarterback Carson Beck boast among the highest ceilings at their respective positions, especially with the emergence of superstar freshman Malachi Toney. Their offensive line could be the best in the CFP. 

Texas A&M comes into the matchup stacked with playmakers, including wide receiver KC Concepcion and defensive end Cashius Howell. Quarterback Marcel Reed will be hungry to put his disappointing performance against Texas behind him in front of the Kyle Field faithful. It will be a heavyweight battle. 

1. (9) Alabama vs. (8) Oklahoma

Line: Alabama -1.5

Oddsmakers are so high on this game being an upset that the Crimson Tide are actually betting favorites heading on the road against a higher seed. Amazingly, the line remains this close despite Oklahoma actually going into Tuscaloosa and beating Alabama for the second straight season. 

But while the optics are wonky, the matchup makes sense. Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma in yardage during its 23-21 loss, and turned the ball over three times. Seventeen of its 23 points came directly off turnovers, and the Crimson Tide missed a 36-yard field goal heading into the half after a high long snap. 

All that to say, Alabama should feel very good heading into Norman with a full game of film. If they can simply hold onto the ball, Alabama can pull the mild seeded upset.