Tom Fornelli's College Football Playoff betting guide: CFP National Championship picks for Miami vs. Indiana

That's 933 games down, and one to go. 

The 2025 college football season will come to an end in Miami Gardens, Florida, Monday night when No. 1 Indiana faces No. 10 Miami in the College Football Playoff National Championship, as will my picks for the season.

I'm sad about the first part, and incredibly relieved about the second. Last week's semifinals felt like an encapsulation of my entire season picking games. I gave out Oregon's team total under 20.5 for the Peach Bowl only to watch the Ducks score with 22 seconds left to lose 56-22. The good news is the total had crept up to 22.5 at some places by kickoff, and I hope some of you were able to get it there.

That's all behind us now, though. We've got one game left, and I have a pick for the spread, total and a prop. Let's finish the season 3-0 and see if we can't carry that momentum into next season.

Spread

There has been a lot of talk during the College Football Playoff about Miami's pass rush, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. It's been for good reason, as both could be chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft, and they're a big reason why the Hurricanes have gotten this far. However, while Miami's pass rush gets all the attention, what most people don't realize is that, statistically, it's not the best pass rush in this game.

The Indiana Hoosiers' defense ranks third nationally with a pressure rate of 41.3% and ninth with a sack rate of 9.0%. Miami is seventh nationally with a pressure rate of 40.8% and 11th with a sack rate of 8.7%. The difference is how Indiana gets there.

Miami doesn't need to blitz and doesn't do it all that often. Their blitz rate of 27.8% is 68th nationally. Indiana is at 35.2%, which ranks ninth. The Hoosiers' defense makes its living by confusing quarterbacks with blitzes from unexpected places and by disguising what it does before the snap.

So, on paper, you see a defense that's great at getting pressure going against a Miami offensive line that allows less pressure than any other team in the country. Miami's offensive line has allowed pressure on only 17.7% of dropbacks, which is an incredible number. Not only is it the best rate in the country, but the second is Ole Miss at 22.8%. The national average is 31.8%! They're pretty good!

The number is somewhat misleading, though. Carson Beck and Miami quarterbacks have gotten rid of the ball at an average clip of 2.49 seconds. That's the sixth-shortest amount of time in the country. Beck is getting rid of the ball quickly, often on screens, RPOs and quick outs. It's hard to get pressure on him when he doesn't have the ball long. But what if Beck suffers the same problem nearly every quarterback has dealt with when facing Indiana?

After taking the snap, he drops back, and the defense he sees isn't what he saw pre-snap. How quickly does he process it? What if that fraction of a second is enough for Indiana's blitz to get home, or it forces him to get rid of the ball under duress? These are the problems Oregon's Dante Moore dealt with, as did Alabama's Ty Simpson and Ohio State's Julian Sayin.

The good news for Miami is Beck is far more experienced than those guys, so you hope he is able to solve the puzzle better. The bad news is, if he doesn't, Beck is much worse when pressured. His completion rate this year under pressure is only 49.1%, and he's thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. I've seen too many QBs succumb to it this year to bet against it, and that is why I believe the Indiana Hoosiers will finish the job Monday night. The Pick: Indiana -8.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Total

One of the key factors in this game is Miami's health on defense. Akheem Mesidor was banged up in the win over Ole Miss, but is expected to play, and Miami coach Mario Cristobal described him as "full-throttle." Cristobal said the same thing about fellow defensive lineman Ahmad Moten, who re-aggravated an ankle injury early in the Ole Miss win. I don't want to call Cristobal a liar, but considering Moten played only 18 snaps in the game a week after playing only 19 against Ohio State, I don't think he's full-throttle. Maybe he's like 60% throttle.

Corners OJ Frederique Jr. and Damari Brown are in question, too. Frederique played only five snaps in the Fiesta Bowl, and Brown hasn't played since Week 14.

Finally, there's the absence of corner Xavier Lucas, who was ejected from the Fiesta Bowl for targeting and must sit out the first half of this game. So, in summation, the Miami defense is banged up along the defensive line and is at less than full strength in the secondary, particularly in the first half. Doesn't sound like a great position to be in. That's why I'm targeting Indiana's first-half team total here.

Indiana has rarely had its top three receivers playing at the same time this year, but they have in the playoffs. Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker have combined for 21 receptions for 276 yards and seven touchdowns in the last two games, while tight end Riley Nowakowski has caught five passes for 54 yards too. This will be a tough assignment for the Miami defense all night, but particularly in the first half. The Pick: Indiana 1st Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-135) at DraftKings

Prop

Mark Fletcher Jr. has been a key player for the Miami offense all season, but we've seen something different from him during this playoff stretch. On the season, Fletcher's explosive rush rate of 13.07% ranks 42nd nationally among 272 running backs with at least five carries per game. So, not bad, but not great.

Fletcher's 16 rushes of 16 yards or more are tied for 18th. However, of those 16 rushes of 16 yards or more, eight have come in three playoff games. Why do we suddenly care about rushes of 16 yards or more? Because the prop listed at FanDuel for Fletcher's longest run of the game is at 15.5 yards, silly!

Now, I feel the need to point out that only one of those rushes came against Ohio State, and that Buckeyes' defense is much closer to this Indiana unit than Texas A&M and Ole Miss were. But it's clear Miami has been doing something a little different in the run game to help Fletcher break off these long runs than what they were doing in the regular season. So I'm more than happy to bet on his talent, as well as his offensive line, to help him pop at least one rush of 16 yards. The Pick: Mark Fletcher Jr. Longest Rush Over 15.5 (-115)

Who will win and cover in Indiana vs. Miami? SportsLine's computer model just simulated the College Football Playoff National Championship Game 10,000 times and projects that one side will cover well over 50% of the time. Visit SportsLine to find out who it is.