There are only three games left in the college football season. That sucks. There's no way around it. If there's a silver lining to that depressing fact, it's that they're College Football Playoff games.
We have reached our Final Four, with Notre Dame and Penn State battling in the Orange Bowl and Ohio State and Texas squaring off in the Cotton Bowl. It's four blue bloods going at it for the right to be called the national champion, and I can't wait to watch these final three games.
Of course, if you're reading this, there's something else you can't wait to do: bet on this week's games. So, fine, I'll just push aside my sad thoughts about the season being so close to its end and give you what you came here for.
Orange Bowl
(6) Penn State vs. (7) Notre Dame
This game should look a lot like the Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia because I don't trust either of these offenses as much as I do the defenses right now. Yes, Notre Dame's defense is banged up, and it's a legitimate concern. I've been saying for months that injuries would play a huge role in who ends up winning it all. Teams are playing more games than ever, and at its core, football is a battle of attrition.
Still, Notre Dame has shown an ability to make up for injuries on defense all season, and even if there are question marks around how healthy Penn State's Abdul Carter is, I expect him to be full-go in this game (or as close to it as any player can reasonably be).
My confidence in these defenses is only enhanced by the offensive performances. Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love was banged up in the Georgia win, too, and there are questions about whether he'll be available here. The Irish offense scored only 1.45 points per possession against the Bulldogs, their lowest in any game outside of the Northern Illinois loss. The team's -1.1 EPA per possession and 33.3% success rate on offense were season worsts. And now, it's facing a Penn State defense that statistically is its toughest opponent yet.
On the other hand, Penn State's offense hasn't played well, either! It looked great against Oregon, but in two playoff games, it averaged only 2.2 points per possession (2.9 on the season) with a success rate of 46.7% (51% on the season). The explosive plays have not been there, particularly in the passing game, though Drew Allar certainly took plenty of shots against Boise State.
Maybe one of these teams comes out and pulls a stunner, going off on offense, but it's hard to see it happening. The Pick: Under 45.5 (-115)
Cotton Bowl
(5) Texas vs. (8) Ohio State
That Michigan game does nothing but baffle the mind more with every snap we've seen from Ohio State in the first two rounds, doesn't it? In short, there isn't a better team in the country than Ohio State at the moment, and I'm not going to beat around the bush. I think Ohio State wins this game and does so comfortably.
I had serious concerns about the offensive line late in the season; it was riddled with injuries. But it's a unit that took advantage of the three weeks it had off following the Michigan game. It's looked fantastic against Tennessee and Oregon, and while Texas's defensive line is the best in the country, the Vols and Ducks units are pretty damned good, too. I expect it'll hold up again here as well as can be reasonably expected.
I do not think Texas' offense will. Listen, there have been two games in the playoff that had late drama. Three, if we want to include Penn State only being up 10 on Boise State to start the fourth quarter. Texas was involved in the other two, allowing Clemson to get back within a score in the first round and needing double overtime to get past Arizona State.
There was a lot of talk about how easy Texas' path was and not as much about how it's struggled to navigate it! Yes, the Texas offense finally solved its red zone problems against Clemson and ran the ball effectively, but guess what? Clemson's run defense has stunk all year, and its red-zone defense has been average. So, did Texas solve anything, or did it just get a good matchup? Well, the 1.94 points per drive and 2.73 points per red zone possession in the latest three games against Texas A&M, Georgia and Arizona State certainly leave an impression, don't they?
So we've got a Texas defense that seemed to wear down late against Arizona State going against an explosive Ohio State offense that's one of the best at finishing drives in the country. Then, we've got a Texas offense that struggles to finish drives (73rd nationally in points per red zone trip) against against the best red zone defense (3.09 points allowed per red zone possession) in the country. Even if Texas' defense slows the Buckeyes down, I don't trust Texas' offense to keep up. The Pick: Ohio State -6 (-110)
