One game matters more than all others at Ohio State, but losing again to Michigan doesn't necessarily place coach Ryan Day on the hot seat during the 2024 season.
Day has done everything but win a national title for the Buckeyes, compiling a 56-8 record to go along with two Big Ten championships, but "The Game" against Michigan hovers over him like a dark cloud heading into his sixth season. Three straight losses to the Wolverines, the defending national champions, have sparked conversation in the cynical corners of the sport. Perhaps, they say, Day should be on the hot seat this fall.
"We know the expectations, we know it's there, but we got 11 games, and then we've got to play that one, and then there's going to be a bigger prize after that we're going to shoot for," Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork told CBS Sports. "So I think you just you have to recognize it, you're not going to shy away from it."
No one argues Ohio State is shying away from "The Game," its importance or what it means to the Buckeyes faithful. Bragging rights are fine for the locals around the water cooler, yes, but more important is what's at stake: the regular-season finale has more often determined whether the Buckeyes play for a Big Ten title. Michigan has won the last three (with as many Big Ten titles), and dotted Ohio State's eye with salt by winning the national title in January.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has shared more in common with Penn State than the Buckeyes of old, falling short of sky-high expectations while watching their rival hang banners. It seems silly to argue a coach with only four regular-season losses to two opponents (Michigan and Big Ten newcomer Oregon) is on the cusp of losing his job, but rivalries steer expectations into strange lands.
"A bunch of junk came out after we lost to those guys a couple of times about [Day] not caring, which couldn't be more wrong," Ohio State defensive end Jack Sawyer said. "He does get unfairly criticized at times, but like he said, he knows what he signed up to do. And we all signed up to do the same thing as well."
Escalation is real. Look no further than the land war between Alabama and Auburn in the 2010s. Just when Nick Saban lifted Alabama off the mat in the late 2000s, Auburn went all-in on Gene Chizik, revamping the offense with a generational quarterback (Cam Newton) and wunderkind offensive coordinator (Gus Malzahn). The Tigers won a national title in 2010 and played for another in 2013, providing a temporary blip in Saban's early reign. The same could be said at Michigan, where Harbaugh lost five straight to Ohio State before the recent three-game streak and the program's first national title since 1997.
Time will tell if Michigan's three-year run is just a blip, but Ohio State has seemingly pushed every button to right the ship. On Jan. 15, Bjork's first day on the job, he met with Day and outgoing AD Gene Smith.
"All I know is they laid out a plan," Bjork said. "They got aggressive. Coach Day got really involved in terms of the infrastructure."
No program invested more in NIL (reportedly $20 million), signed more top-tier skill players in the portal (quarterback Will Howard and running back Quinshon Judkins and safety Caleb Downs, to name a few) or hired a bigger name to call plays (UCLA coach Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator). Just as importantly, Ohio State convinced 12 NFL-caliber players to return to campus rather than bolt for the pros.
Nine days after Day's meeting with Ohio State brass, Jim Harbaugh left Michigan for the NFL, and in his wake is an unsettled NCAA investigation. New coach Sherrone Moore leads an all-new staff with a top-tier roster, but one with several new faces tasked with picking up and piecing together the pieces of a proud program. Michigan might not be in disarray, but it is teetering on a pillar of uncertainty as the rivalry approaches an inflection point.
Day seems poised to pounce. The new 12-team format in the College Football Playoff not only resets the game, it also tweaks expectations.
"You expect to win every game," Day said. "That's just what it is. If you don't think that's the case, try losing a game at Ohio State. You're expected to win them all."
Surviving a fourth straight loss to Michigan seems unfathomable to some, particularly after an offseason of championship-aspiring moves, but even a loss to Michigan, perhaps as unlikely as it seems today, will need to be contextualized. Losing to Michigan might eliminate the possibility of a Big Ten title, but it doesn't necessarily mean the Buckeyes will be eliminated from the playoffs. In fact, Ohio State would have reached the 12-team CFP in its previous five seasons under Day -- win or lose to Michigan.
"So, look at the big picture," Bjork said. "Look at what he's working with, look at the stage of the program. You can't just pin it on that one [game], knowing that it's big, but I think you have to look at the totality. In the 12 team playoff, the margin is a lot wider. And so does that game define what the postseason looks like? What if you make a run?"
Hypotheticals can poison perspective, though there is direct evidence of an alternate past.
Consider 2022, when Ohio State advanced to the CFP and led Georgia by double digits in the Peach Bowl. The Bulldogs rallied but the Buckeyes missed a field goal as time expired that would have sent them to the national championship, where they likely would have defeated TCU for the national title. Earlier that same afternoon, Michigan lost to TCU in the other CFP semifinal. Georgia went on to bludgeon TCU 65-7, the most lopsided postseason win in the FBS at the time, to win a second straight title.
That possibility -- that poisonous hypothetical -- came to mind last month when Day shared a new approach for his team in 2024.
"It's easy to say, 'Well, it comes down to a play or two,' but that's not really the case. What we need to do is ... leave no doubt. No doubt," Day said at Big Ten Media Days. "Don't leave it to one play, don't leave it to one call, don't leave it to one stop. Leave no doubt when you're on the field. We're not going to get into all the reasons or all the things that we've done to try to address that to get that fixed, but we have. We worked hard on that, and we feel good about where we're at going into the season."
Yes, it seems something has changed in Columbus.