Welcome to Week 8, where in the SEC it's time for the second Game of the Century … of the 2024 season.
No. 5 Georgia travels to top-ranked Texas for Austin's first top-five showdown since 2006. You'll recall Georgia was previously No. 2 when it rallied but lost 41-34 to No. 4 Alabama just a few weeks ago.
Is it redemption time for the Bulldogs, or is Texas primed to maintain its spot as the only undefeated team in the SEC?
It will test Texas like no other matchup this season. The Longhorns have been unstoppable, particularly with the nation's No. 1 defense, but its two big wins have come against some of the worst offenses in the country (Michigan ranks 110th and Oklahoma is 128th in yards per play). Georgia is no slouch at No. 17.
More importantly for the Bulldogs, the offense seems to be clicking after an early season scare at Kentucky. They've scored at least 31 points in the three games since the Bluegrass blunder, and quarterback Carson Beck is averaging 379.3 yards per game during the stretch.
As much attention as Beck and Texas' Quinn Ewers will receive this week, the biggest storyline is what happens in the trenches and which defense is able to corral a quarterback.
I had an OK week in Week 7, going 6-1 straight up with a 4-3 record against the spread. Check out the latest DraftKings promo to get in the game.
A few more thoughts and notes before we jump into this week's picks.
Missouri's Freeze Warning
Sometimes even the most well-intentioned compliments brewing in your head should never be said out loud.
Earlier this week, Auburn's Hugh Freeze offered a hand of grace to Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz -- well, at least Freeze believed it to be a kind hand. It was actually a backhand.
It seems Freeze believes great coaches should be judged by how well they do with "lesser rosters" like … Missouri, the Tigers' Week 8 opponent.
"I know everybody has their rankings of coaches, and it's based on -- to me -- the better talent you have, the better coach you are for sure," Freeze told reporters Monday. "To me, some of the better coaching jobs are done with those lesser rosters in recruiting. I think you look at people like Eli and [Mark] Stoops and heck, Clark Lea now, too that I think are doing incredible jobs at their respective programs with the kids that they've had. They've had some time to develop their culture and get their players in."
I guess that makes sense? But it doesn't pertain to Missouri. Drinkwitz's group ranks No. 19 nationally in 247Sports' Team Talent Composite -- Auburn, for the record, is No. 18 -- and with a ranking of No. 19 in the AP poll, one could say Mizzou (5-1, 1-1 SEC) is living up to expectations.
Meanwhile, Auburn (2-4, 0-3) is off to its worst start since 2012 and is on a four-game losing streak in SEC play dating back to last season. Since 2022, Auburn has the second-worst record in the SEC (5-14), ahead of only Vanderbilt (4-15).
We'll see if Auburn, with the better roster, can beat little 'ol Mizzou on Saturday. The Tigers are a one-possession favorite at home, according to DraftKings sportsbook.
Just a SECond
A few quick notables from the CBS Sports Research team:
- A Georgia win at Texas would assure the SEC exits the month of October without an undefeated team for the first time since 2007.
- Georgia has won 50 straight games against teams other than Alabama.
- Of the 11 undefeated teams in the FBS, six were not ranked in the preseason polls.
- Georgia's trip to Texas is its first road game against a No. 1 team in school history.
- Arkansas will seek its first back-to-back wins against top-10 teams in school history when No. 8 LSU visits this week.
- Alabama has won 16 of the last 17 overall against Tennessee, but the Vols have won nine of the last 10 when ranked in the top 15.
- Alabama has allowed 25-plus points in three consecutive regular season games for the first time since 2003.
- No. 19 Missouri has won 11 straight games against unranked opponents.
Picks
Straight up: 55-12 | Against the spread: 33-27-2
For more college football odds, visit DraftKings
Auburn at No. 19 Missouri
Missouri may have stumbled and face planted at Texas A&M two weeks ago, but does anyone trust Auburn to be competitive on the road? Auburn is dead last in the FBS in turnover margin (-11), and though they only lost by 18 points at Georgia, I'm still not seeing an uptick in production offensively or defensively. Auburn would be smart to run Jarquez Hunter until the wheels fall off Saturday. He's averaging 6.8 yards per carry, and unlike the rotating door at quarterback, you know you can expect more good things than bad when you put the ball in his hands.
Missouri had a nice "get right" performance in a 45-3 win at UMass last week. Luther Burden continues to be the centerpiece of the offense, but getting running back Marcus Carroll, who rushed for a season-best 91 yards last week, revved up is crucial down the stretch this season. Pick: Missouri -5.5
South Carolina at Oklahoma
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables believes South Carolina has its best defense yet under coach Shane Beamer, which might be right even if the numbers are not necessarily stellar. The Gamecocks have done well enough in opportunities against Alabama and LSU, and they rank 14th nationally in pass efficiency defense while holding opponents to fewer than 300 yards a game. It might be a minor miracle if Oklahoma's riches-to-rags offense can crack 300. Still, this will be a fantastic game to watch, if for nothing else to watch two mobile quarterbacks (Oklahoma's Michael Hawkins Jr. and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers) try to outmaneuver two solid defenses. Pick: South Carolina +2.5
No. 7 Alabama at No. 11 Tennessee
Never would I ever have expected Tennessee's offense to be as anemic as it has been in the SEC. The Vols have failed to eclipse 25 points in three straight games, the worst stretch in the Josh Heupel era. The defense, however, has been elite, ranking in the top five nationally in most categories. They're why the Vols knocked off Florida in overtime last week.
Alabama doesn't necessarily have issues moving the ball with QB Jalen Milroe (gotta cut out the picks), but the defense continues to struggle to get off the field. Every team but Western Kentucky — USF, Wisconsin, Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina — has managed long drives of 13 plays or more against the Tide, including two 17-play drives. Might Alabama's defense be the elixir that gets Tennessee feeling good about itself again? No. Milroe has been much more productive than Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who has failed to eclipse 200 yards while throwing zero touchdowns in the last two games. Pick: Alabama -2.5
No. 14 Texas A&M at Mississippi State
Texas A&M is rolling and Mississippi State seems to have found its pulse after struggling to score earlier in the season. A 10-point loss at Georgia gave the Bulldogs some hope, but it's still not all good in Starkville. The defense is an absolute mess, ranking 124th in total defense and 125th in pass efficiency. This is a terrible matchup for the Bulldogs against the SEC's second-best rushing offense. A loss would drop Mississippi State to 1-6 for the first time since 1988. The Bulldogs cover, as they have in their last two road trips, but fail to pick up a much-needed win. Pick: Mississippi State +14.5
No. 8 LSU at Arkansas
How healthy is Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green? He injured his knee two weeks ago in the upset win against Tennessee and was pulled from the game with a noticeable limp. He's practicing this week, but how mobile can he be Saturday? Green is at his best when rolling out and escaping pressure, a must for the Hogs behind an offensive line that has struggled at times to protect. He'll face one of the best pass rushers in the nation, Bradyn Swinson, who co-leads the SEC with 25 quarterback pressures.
Might Arkansas lean on Ja'Quinden Jackson? He's rushed for at least one touchdown in six straight games, the second-longest streak in the country. LSU has lost its last two games when ranked in the AP top 10, but this LSU team is built differently after being so porous on defense in previous seasons. Garrett Nussmeier has been sacked only twice this season, and if Arkansas is unable to get efficient pressure, the Tigers should win by a healthy margin. Pick: LSU -3
Ball State at Vanderbilt
Ball State saved itself from the label as the worst team in the FBS with a 37-35 win at Kent State last week. Vanderbilt continues to buck expectations, including in Las Vegas, with back-to-back wins as double-digit underdogs against Alabama and Kentucky. The goal: win and keep Diego Pavia healthy before hosting No. 1 Texas next week. Pick: Ball State +26.5
No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas
No one has challenged Texas, but Georgia should do just that Saturday in Austin. The Longhorns have outscored opponents by 221 points, the best mark through six games since 1915. They hang their 10-gallon hat on the win at Michigan, but the Wolverines don't look much like a top-25 team these days. Georgia is a different beast, and though the Bulldogs lost at Alabama, they're still among the nation's elite and deserving of their top-five ranking after opening the season with a blowout of Clemson.
This game boils down to one question: which quarterback outshines the other? Quinn Ewers was fine in his return from an abdominal strain last week against Oklahoma, but he did look a tad rusty. Carson Beck quietly had his breakthrough moment, breaking Georgia's record for pass completions (36) in his most efficient game yet against Mississippi State. Beck's second-half performance against Alabama was excellent, but the Tide's secondary is nothing like Texas' incredible unit that ranks No. 1 in scoring and total defense and second nationally in pass efficiency defense. Pick: Texas -3.5
Kentucky at Florida
Florida is coming off a disappointing loss at Tennessee, but the Gators seem to be playing with more confidence and, more importantly, discipline as coach BIlly Napier continues to cook on the hot seat. DJ Lagway took over full time as quarterback after Graham Mertz was lost for the season against the Vols. Lagway performed well in his absence, throwing a beautiful touchdown pass in the final 30 seconds to force overtime. Kentucky will do everything it can with its top-15 defense to confuse and frustrate Lagway, who is still raw and prone to mistakes.
Kentucky can certainly play ball control but it can't score (114th nationally), so how does that work out on the road? It worked to perfection earlier this season at Ole Miss. The big difference here is The Swamp, which will swallow the Cats. Pick: Florida -2.5
