November is a dark and foreboding month for more than the obvious.
It gets darker earlier. It gets colder (in most places). It's also the month when college football is exposed for what it is: a forced march testing the limits of human endurance.
This is the month when bodies break down. So do game plans.
Part of it is familiarity. By November, everyone knows each other. There are few surprises, especially in conference games.
That starts to explain why Clemson's Deshaun Watson is less accurate (63.5 percent, down from 67.8 percent) and less efficient (7.6 yards per pass compared to 8.36) than last season. Based on his current pace, Watson will get nowhere near his 1,100 rushing yards of 2015.
Folks lost their minds with the release of the first College Football Playoff Rankings. That's just the tip of the football. Ohio State lost a November home game in the drizzle facing two Michigan State backup quarterbacks last season.
It's going to get wackier. This is the month of upsets. This is the month when the game's most intense rivalries will be played.
Even Alabama is vulnerable -- if you can call it that. Since 2009, the Tide are 23-5 in November, 58-3 combined in September and October in that span. Last November loss? The Kick Six in 2013.
This is the month of the Iron Bowl, The Game and Bedlam. This is the month when the Heisman Trophy is won -- or lost. Mostly, this is a month of attrition.
There are five undefeated teams left heading into the first AP Top 25 poll in November. That ties for the second-fewest unbeaten teams heading into the last full month in the last 25 years.
It's November. Things are about to get cramped, closer and kookier.
Sit back. Settle in. You have been warned.
1. Breaking down Alabama-LSU: It's not the Game of the Century, it's the game of the week. Let's start there. Consider this: Alabama could lose this game and still make it to the playoff. Rather easily, actually, if you consider the SEC champion is almost guaranteed a spot. Heck, the Tide lost November games in 2011 (LSU) and 2012 (Texas A&M) and won the national championship.
Yes, LSU owns the SEC West tiebreaker over Alabama with a win. But the Tigers still have to go to Arkansas and Texas A&M. So let's dial it back a bit. What this is about is Leonard Fournette trying to leave his stamp on this rivalry. In two meetings he has rushed for a total of 110 yards.
What this is about is Alabama playing without All-American punt returner Eddie Jackson, an All-SEC safety. Minkah Fitzpatrick, with four career touchdowns on defense, has moved from corner to safety to compensate. "Challenge accepted," Fitzpatrick said on Twitter.
What this is about is Tigers quarterback Danny Etling having to make plays against the best defense in the country. Bama no doubt will clog the box against the Purdue transfer. Etling has completed only three of 18 passes thrown at least 20 yards down the field. That means a big day for Tim Williams and Jonathan Allen.
LSU has to "win" on first and second down -- in other words, stay out of long-yardage situations. As much as Fournette is fired up about leaving his mark against Alabama, that defense is fired up about stopping him -- again.
The last 100-yard rusher against the Tide was Nick Chubb (146 yards) in Game 5 of 2015. Since then, 18 games have passed. In fact, Alabama has allowed only seven 100-yard rushers total since 2008.
The next-best SEC defense in that span is LSU with 25. Fun stat: Alabama hasn't beaten LSU in six straight since 1976. (That was part of an overall 11-game winning streak, 1971-81.)
Finally, this is about Ed Orgeron. Will LSU pull the trigger on its interim coach if he pulls off the upset?
Hmm, not bad for a game of the week.
2. Believing in Nebraska: There's an elimination game at Ohio State this week that next to no one expected. The Buckeyes suddenly look like they're stuck in the mud. Yards per play were down more than a yard (19 percent) from September to October. Meanwhile, this is the first time all season I've believed Nebraska can really reach the Big Ten title game.
If not for an ill-advised 23-yard throw into the end zone against Wisconsin on fourth down -- when all that was needed was eight yards for a first down -- the country might have a higher opinion of the Huskers. Everything from here is gravy for the 'Skers. A loss doesn't mean they can't win the Big Ten West. They just need Wisconsin to lose again.
A Husker win all but drops Ohio State out of the playoff race unless you believe a two-loss team will win the Big Ten. Personally, I don't. Right now, I'd take Michigan straight up at Ohio State on what still looks like the Big Ten's penultimate game on Nov. 26.
3. Beware of the Gators: Florida begins a November that could end with a second straight SEC East title. We're not going to open a marketing campaign for the offense that would fall off its stilettos if this were a fashion show runway. No, it's the defense that's underrated headed to Arkansas.
Cornerback Quincy Wilson has allowed a minuscule 18.3 passer rating on balls thrown in his area (via Pro Football Focus). The defensive line is No. 1 nationally in sack rate. More than a quarter of the opponent's carries are stopped at, or behind, the line of scrimmage. The Gators only allow quarterbacks to complete the ball at a 39.9 percent rate and boast a top-two defense in almost every category, including total defense (239.9 yards per game) and scoring defense (11.7 points per game).
This is simply the second-best defense in the SEC (behind Alabama, which has faced better competition), if not the country. That last time Arkansas faced a defense this good at home, this happened.
4. A lesson for the knee jerks: Les Miles got canned after four games. Charlie Strong's job security is a week-to-week proposition. Gus Malzahn was in the same position early on. Into this conversation we inject USC's Clay Helton. When the Trojans started 1-3, folks were openly questioning whether the career assistant would last the season.
Heading into the Oregon game, Helton has led USC to four straight wins and right into the Pac-12 South race. Sam Darnold has come off the bench to look like what becomes the next good -- if not great -- USC quarterback.
Most of all, the Trojans have an identity. This is the physical team that Helton promised. They'd better be. Oregon has dropped 110 points and a combined 1,308 yards in the last two meetings.
5. CFP angst: The committee has forced us to watch Penn State down the stretch. Not particularly for anything the Nittany Lions have done. Heck, they've already lost twice by a total of 42 points. Yes, there is that win over Ohio State, but there are still those two losses to Michigan and an unranked Pittsburgh.
The committee has forced us to watch Penn State because they've taken all that into account and ranked it 12th. The Nittany Lions are ahead of an undefeated team (Western Michigan) and three one-loss teams.
Penn State is going to be favored in every game it plays beginning Saturday at home against Iowa. There's an outside shot the Nittany Lions can win the Big Ten East. Given the committee's love affair with schedule strength, we think the Nits will slide, but we're not sure. Therefore, Penn State has the best marketing firm in the country at its disposal, the playoff committee.
Therefore, we must watch.
Meanwhile, these three teams should be on the lookout for whatever set of universal principles the selection committee choose to judge teams next week.
- No. 4 Texas A&M (at Mississippi State): The Aggies started in the top four after beating New Mexico State. Just think if they would have played someone like Vanderbilt. They would be No. 1.
- No. 5 Washington (at Cal): The Huskies are the best team on the West Coast by a wide margin. Their debut at No. 5 proves the committee must go to bed early.
- No. 8 Wisconsin (at Northwestern): Being the highest-ranked two-loss team is a little like being the world's fastest turtle.
6. Short gains: Just wondering: Where is Brandon Harris' head at right now? The one-time four-star LSU prodigy hasn't played in three weeks and hasn't thrown a pass since the second game of the season against Jacksonville State ... I guess Notre Dame (vs. Navy in Jacksonville) can start asking itself if it is the best 3-5 team in the country. There are nine such teams by the way. The Irish have been beaten by one of them, Duke ... If Air Force (at Army) is going to win an ongoing record 20th Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, it's only fitting it be led by a guy named Weston Steelhammer ... Considering the lack of buy-in by certain schools (cough, cough, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State) is it time to call the Big Ten's new scheduling plan in 2017 "Friday Night Lite?" ... Jalen Hurd, we hardly knew ya.