The Six Pack: Ohio State vs. Iowa, Tennessee vs. Arkansas among top Week 6 college football picks

Welcome to October. This is the month when we start separating the contenders from the pretenders. No more easy nonconference games. Now, you have to play opponents that are far more in line with your ability.

It's also the month The Six Pack will charge forward. It was a mediocre 3-3 week last week, but I feel good about the plays we made. We lost an over in the Michigan-Minnesota game that had touchdown drives of 11, 16, and 17 yards. We also saw Central Michigan muff a punt that led to a 17-yard touchdown drive for San Diego State. Central Michigan wound up winning by one and failing to cover the 2.5.

The ball, quite literally, did not bounce our way.

But we have no control over that. All we can do is make the best decisions based on what we know and hope the variance works in our favor more often than not. Here's to October proving The Six Pack is a contender.

Odds via SportsLine consensus

Games of the Week

No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M: This is certainly one of those games where we're going to learn a lot more about both one of these teams. Yes, we saw Texas A&M play Notre Dame to start the season, but first games can sometimes be misleading. Plus, the Aggies have changed quarterbacks since then, and -- while Mike Elko is playing depth chart mind games -- I anticipate Marcel Reed will continue as Texas A&M's starter. The offense has simply looked better with him than Conner Weigman.

Mizzou's offense hasn't been what most anticipated, either, though it's picked things up a bit recently. Still, there's a serious lack of explosive plays through the air, which plays into what Texas A&M does defensively. The Aggies force you to throw short and beat them after the catch. The Tigers certainly have players capable of doing that, but for whatever reason, they haven't shown enough of it this year. Perhaps that changes Saturday, but my feeling is it'll be a close, lower-scoring affair; both defenses look a step further along than the offenses. The Pick: Under 48.5 (-105)

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State: I know the game is at Iowa, and I know the Hawkeyes have a great defense with an improved offense, but how much can we truly trust what we've seen from the Hawkeyes? You have to give them the benefit of the doubt on defense because they've been so good at it for so long, but what's the best offense Iowa has faced? Is it Iowa State or Minnesota? Is there a difference?

They haven't seen anything like what Ohio State's bringing to town. The Buckeyes can beat you in multiple ways. Take away an option, and there are four or five more. On the other hand, if Ohio State neutralizes Kaleb Johnson, does Iowa's offense have a counter? I can't help but remember the second half of Iowa's 20-19 loss when the Cyclones were able to contain him, and Iowa was helpless offensively. If Iowa State can do it, you have to believe Ohio State can, too. The Pick: Ohio State -19.5 (-110)

Lock of the Week

Navy at Air Force: I'm terrified of this pick. Longtime readers of the column are aware of the power of Service Academy Unders. For the uninitiated: since 2005, the under is a remarkable 46-10-1 in games between the service academies. It's common sense. They all run extremely run-heavy option offenses. The clock doesn't stop following a run. That means it rarely stops in these games. That limits the number of possessions. The fewer possessions, the fewer chances to score points.

But things are changing, and it's not just because Navy QB Blake Horvath is throwing for 159 yards per game (Navy still runs the ball 76% of the time). It's that the totals are dropping precipitously. For years, sportsbooks would post the totals for these games in the high 40s or even the 50s despite results suggesting otherwise. That's changed lately. The average total for last season's three games was 31.7. This total is 36. At some point, this trend will cease bearing fruit, and I sense that time is drawing near. However, there is no way I will stop betting it until it does. The Pick: Under 36 (-110)

Wagon of the Week

No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas: The majority of my picks in this column, as well as in real life, are based on a combination of statistics and circumstance, but some are based purely on vibes. This is the latter. My theory on Arkansas is pretty simple: It's the kind of team that can make things interesting against slightly better teams. Like, if the spread is anywhere between minus-7 or plus-7, anything is possible with the Razorbacks. Essentially: if they're favored, I'd fade them; if they're the underdogs, I don't want the points, just the money line.

But then there are the games against teams on a higher level. I don't believe Arkansas can hang in these spots. I don't care if it's at home. Tennessee went on the road and beat (and covered against) an Oklahoma team that's far better than this Arkansas squad defensively. Tennessee's pass rush will force QB Taylen Green into mistakes, and the Vols offense should eat against a Razorbacks defense that isn't as strong against the pass. Plus, the Vols are coming off a bye, while this is Arkansas' sixth game in six weeks. That matters, too. The Pick: Tennessee -13.5 (-110)

Big 12 Snoozer of the Week

Houston at TCU -- Friday: There are two things you need to know about the Houston Cougars. The first is that they stink. The second is they know it. Describing Willie Fritz's offenses at Tulane as "up-tempo" would be an exaggeration, but they certainly didn't move at a snail-like pace, like this Houston offense. The Coogs have been solid defensively, and they lean into that. Houston games have averaged 117.6 snaps, which is fewer than all but Kentucky, which ended a game against Southern Miss in the third quarter due to bad weather.

Oh, and have I mentioned Houston hasn't scored a point in conference play? It's not likely to last all season, but it's a reflection of how difficult life has been for this offense. TCU bounced back from the SMU loss with a road win over Kansas last week, and with a bye and Utah looming, I can see a scenario in which the Frogs get up early and are willing to play along with Houston's tempo. The Pick: Under 52.5 (-114)

Sneaky Sun Belt Team of the Week

South Alabama at Arkansas State: I apologize to the entire state of Arkansas; I didn't come into the week looking to pick on your teams. I am simply a fan of this South Alabama team. I took out a future on the Jaguars winning the Sun Belt a few weeks ago and still feel pretty good about it. Between quarterback Gio Lopez and running back Fluff Bothwell (yep, that's his name), the Jaguars have two of the better offensive weapons in the conference. They are efficient and explosive.

Arkansas State's offensive numbers are skewed a bit by games against Michigan and Iowa State, but I don't think the Red Wolves are at the same level as the Jags. Defensively, neither team has been incredible, but again, the Jaguars are better than the Red Wolves across the board in all the stats I care about. As long as the line is at three points or fewer, I feel comfortable with this South Alabama team as a road favorite here. The Pick: South Alabama -3 (-104)

SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets in Week 6 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.