2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 20 of the most underrated and overrated by ADP (average draft position)
Whether it's too high or too low, these players aren't being valued like they should be
By
Scott White
•
1 min read
We've gone over sleepers, breakouts, and busts ad nauseam, but what about players who just aren't being valued properly? I'm not making any bold proclamations about their upside or warning of any glaring red flags. I just think people are getting them wrong.
It's a subtle distinction, but enough of one to justify its own article. Because the basis for it is where players are being drafted, I'm mostly comparing their ADP (average draft position) to where I myself rank them, specifically for 5x5 Rotisserie leagues. I'm relying on NFBC for ADP because it allows me to isolate just the last week of drafts, giving us the most current information.
Rather than just rehash my sleepers, breakouts, and busts here, I wanted to focus on players that you haven't read as much about yet, so I'm not going to claim these are the most underrated or overrated. But the amount that they're being underrated or overrated is certainly enough to comment on.
Underrated by ADP
Freeman is a stand-in for an entire tier of first basemen that, in my estimation, goes about 20 spots too late. Others in the tier include Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, and Rafael Devers, and if you wanted to rope Josh Naylor in there as well, I wouldn't argue. The four (Naylor excluded) have been second-round fixtures throughout their careers, and while none is coming off his best season, I wouldn't say any show telltale signs of decline. The most concerning would be Devers with his escalating strikeout rate, but he's also the youngest at age 29 and was navigating the most tumultuous season of his career in a number of respects. I'm singling out Freeman here because I think the perception with him is most out of step with reality. Yes, he's 36 and saw his strikeout rate climb last year, but remember, he was hobbled by his recovery from ankle surgery early on. His strikeout rate dropped to a more typical 16 percent in August and September, during which he hit 13 of his 24 homers overall. He offers a reliably high batting average at a point when you may be desperate for it, and should remain a run and RBI monster as the projected cleanup hitter in a stacked Dodgers lineup.
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You see how many home runs Eugenio Suarez hit, right? Sure, 50-homer men Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber go in Rounds 1 and 2, but when Suarez falls just one short, he's relegated to Round 8? He's a third baseman, for crying out loud! There aren't enough of those to go around. OK, so consistency has been an issue, and yeah, the batting average raises some concerns. But remember, he finished last year in Seattle, where we already knew he can't hit from the two years he spent there previously. He was batting .248 when the Diamondbacks traded him back to Seattle in July, and he hit .280 with a .921 OPS in his 24 road games after re-joining the Mariners. It was just their home ballpark that gave him fits. Well, now he's at Great American Ball Park, which is on the opposite end of hitter friendliness. That's where he hit 49 home runs the first time, remember, back in 2019.
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I truly don't get this one. Christian Yelich finally gave in to back surgery last offseason, addressing a problem that had plagued him for years, and he came back to deliver by far his highest home run total since his incredible 2018-19 run, when he hit 36 and 44, respectively. His shift to DH helps to keep him in the lineup every day, and he delivers massive run and RBI totals -- the kind normally only available to early-rounders -- for a competitive Brewers team. So why are we drafting him two rounds later than a year ago, when we still had no idea how his back would respond and had no assurances that he'd ever be even a 20-homer guy again? Sure, he had outfield eligibility then, but Yelich's DH-only status is no reason to relegate him to a lower tier of hitters, as his ADP would suggest.
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Brandon Lowe has forever paced out as a 30-homer guy, so the numbers he delivered last year were the kind we knew he always could if only A) he could stay healthy and B) the Rays would stop sitting him so often. Well, he's not any less injury-prone with the Pirates, but it's fair to say his platoon days are done. With the possible exceptions of Jazz Chisholm and Ketel Marte, who are both off the board before the end of Round 3, Lowe is the preeminent power bat at second base, and considering it's a position with so little impact to be found, it's a wonder he lasts as long as he does.
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Didn't we just do this with Kris Bubic? He already made the successful transition from the bullpen back to the starting rotation. The stuff held, and he looked like an ace for two-thirds of a season, with a swinging strike rivaling Garrett Crochet's. I guess the reason for hesitance is that it was only two-thirds of a season. He missed the final third with a strained rotator cuff, which may sound scary to some, but he's come back this spring looking no worse for wear. So enjoy doubling down on this sleeper, I guess.
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You've heard third base is weak, no doubt, which makes it all the more surprising that a mainstay like Max Muncy could become an afterthought there. Sure, he's getting older, but his production hasn't diminished at all. I would note it improved, in fact, after he was fitted for glasses in late April, leading to a .268 batting average, 19 homers, and .969 OPS the rest of the way. But the rest of the way was fragmented by injury, which I imagine factors into the skepticism, as does the fear of him sitting all the more against left-handed pitchers. Still, when we're at the point where such concerns are causing him to be drafted behind Otto Lopez and Jordan Beck, it's fair to say the concerns are overblown. His sporadic playing time last September was more about easing him back from an oblique injury than any loss of faith on the Dodgers' part, and to whatever degree they can justify sitting him against left-handed starters, you have to imagine Muncy will be pinch-hitting just as soon as a righty comes out of the 'pen. Santiago Espinal is no great shakes, after all.
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Overrated by ADP
Go on and tell me what it is that Ceddanne Rafaela does well. Play defense? Sure, and that's ultimately what's keeping his bat in the lineup. Run fast? Yeah, but it's not the most functional speed, as evidenced by his so-so stolen base total this year. As a hitter, there isn't much to see; his average exit velocity ranking is in the bottom quarter of the league, and his chase rate is in the top 2 percent. He limped to the finish line with a .224 batting average in August and September, hitting just two home runs over that two-month span, so there may come a point when the Red Sox have to ask themselves if his defense is entirely worth it. And maybe they'll decide it is, but he'll remain buried at the bottom of their lineup, where his run and RB production will be so lacking that even if he approaches 20 homers and 20 steals, you won't have much reason to care.
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If you ask the Ryan Pepiot truthers the reason for their enthusiasm, they'll say, "Well, he's back at Tropicana Field after a year spent at that miniature Yankee Stadium in Tampa." But so what? He was actually much better at that miniature Yankee Stadium than on the road this past year, putting together a 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 there compared to a 4.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9 elsewhere. Furthermore, we've already seen him have a full season at Tropicana Field, and it wasn't a big deal. His strikeout rate was a little better, but he still had a 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He's a solid member of a Fantasy pitching staff, but there's more upside to be found in pitchers like Trevor Rogers, Gavin Williams, and Bubba Chandler, who all go off the board later.
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The people celebrating Pepiot's return to Tropicana Field should be lamenting the same for Diaz, and in a way that's better supported by the data. Only twice has the 34-year-old hit even 15 home runs in a season, much less the 25 he hit last year, and the reason why his power numbers typically fall short is that so much of his hardest contact is to the opposite field. That wasn't such a bad thing, though, at the Rays' temporary home last year, which was modeled after Yankee Stadium with its short porch in right field. Diaz hit 18 of his 25 home runs there. His home run output was more typical on the road, which tells me that a 15-homer outcome might be the most reasonable projection. You may point out that I don't rank Diaz much lower than the consensus, but we've already established that I rank first basemen higher in general (see Freeman, Freddie). Trust me, I wouldn't Diaz outside of maybe a points league.
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With all the upside cases to be found in the middle range of the starting pitcher rankings, why would anyone prioritize Sonny Gray, who's now 36 and showing clear signs of decline? The most obvious of these is the loss of a half a mile per hour from his fastball each of the past two years. An inflated ERA has accompanied that loss, first 3.84 in 2024 and then 4.28 in 2025. Sure, his FIP showed he deserved better, but that's a harder case to make when it happens two years in a row. Gray should still deliver a nice strikeout total, provided he doesn't steep further into decline, but he presents too much ratio risk in the range he's being drafted (a risk that's only increased, by the way, with his move to Fenway Park this year).
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Considering the wealth of talent available at catcher this year, why would anyone pay a premium for Alejandro Kirk, whose breakout season last year, to the degree we could call it that, still made him a liability in home runs and especially runs? He has impressive bat-to-ball skills, yeah, but they haven't yielded high batting averages consistently. You're really going to settle for him when emerging mashers like Samuel Basallo and Carter Jensen are available just a round or two later? Even if your league is so deep that you can't justify gambling on any rookie (weird, but OK), a better version of Kirk, Gabriel Moreno, is available 30 picks later.
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I have to accept some of the blame for this one because I was hyping Barger pretty hard in the first half last year. At the time, he was hitting the ball 93.4 mph on average, which gave him the look of an underachiever even though he was batting .256 with an .801 OPS at the time. What I didn't count on was his average exit velocity plummeting to 89.8 mph in the second half, which dragged down his top-line numbers as well. Pitchers began locating away, keeping the ball out of his sweet spot, and he may not be a disciplined enough hitter to compensate for that. Between that and the likelihood of him sitting against left-handers, I don't see the justification for drafting him ahead of Spencer Torkelson and Daulton Varsho, to name just a couple of the sluggers going after him.
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