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Nine days until Opening Day ... 

Spencer Strider isn't one of the fastest risers in Average Draft Position right now. But that's all about to change in a big way.

From the first week of March through the past nine days of drafts, Strider's price has increased from an average of 120.6 to 110.3, an increase of 10.3 spots, behind other pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Hunter Green, Gavin Williams, Cristopher Sanchez, and Shane McClanahan – in fact, 37 different players have seen their price rise by more picks than Strider's has in that time.

But that was before we saw Strider on a mound. 

He made his return from elbow surgery Monday and looked about as good as you could possibly have hoped. Just 11 months removed from an internal brace procedure meant to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Strider absolutely mowed the Red Sox down, striking out six of eight batters he faced over 2.2 innings without allowing a single baserunner. I'm not even sure if Strider was supposed to pitch into the third inning, but he was just so efficient that they might have left him out there – he needed just 27 pitches to get eight outs, despite six of them coming on strikeouts.

This was absurdly dominant stuff, albeit with a couple of caveats. The first is that Strider didn't pitch in a stadium with Statcast data, so we don't know exactly how hard he was throwing – the broadcast radar gun wasn't on for his first three pitches, but he hit 98 on a strikeout of Roman Anthony and averaged just over 95 mph on the four-seamers that were tracked. If accurate, that would obviously be several ticks down from Strider's peak, when he averaged 98.2 in 2022 and 97.3 in 2023. 

The other caveat here is that this was basically a Triple-A lineup for the Red Sox. It would be a heck of a Triple-A team, of course, with Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer in there along with David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom, but there were also zero hitters in there with a track record of even average MLB production. You can only face the hitters the other team puts into the lineup, but this wasn't exactly a fully armed and operational battle station he took down, either.

Which is all to say, while it was great to see Strider back out there Monday, I'm not ready to declare that he's fully back, either. And I'm certainly not about to push him way up my draft board – though I would guess I'll be in the minority on that one. We can't say how high Strider is going to go until it happens, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see his ADP climb into the top 75 in the final 10 days or so before the season – he was at 79.0 in four NFBC drafts Monday, though it's too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions from (yet). 

And I just can't get on board at that kind of price. Not when we know he won't be in the rotation until mid-April and will likely be limited at least early in the season – and probably won't throw more than 130-140 innings all season even in a best-case scenario. Not when names like Tanner Bibee, Freddy Peralta, Zac Gallen, Sonny Gray, Justin Steele, Bryan Woo, and Robbie Ray (among many others!) are all going to be available outside of the top 100 in nearly all drafts. Strider has plenty of upside, but it's not like those are all uniformly boring, low-ceiling options. And they won't have the workload limitations Strider might have. 

I realize I am burying the lede here a bit because this morning was the official beginning of the MLB season, but there's something you should know: I hit "submit" on this newsletter at 1 am this morning, five hours before the Cubs and Dodgers kicked off the MLB season, so I have no idea what happened in that game! And, if you're reading this, it means nothing so dramatic happened that I had to change my plans at the last minute to account for it. So, you'll get my thoughts on that first game tomorrow morning. 

For now, we're keeping our eyes firmly planted on draft season. In the rest of today's newsletter, we're taking one last look at Average Draft Position data, comparing drafts from the first week of March to the past 10 days to find the biggest risers and fallers, plus we're checking in to see where some of the biggest injury names have fallen. Let's get to it. 

Final Spring ADP Review

Where have the injured guys fallen? 

George Kirby -- First week of March ADP: 63.63; Since: 137.5

In leagues with an IL spot, I'm willing to take Kirby around 100th overall, and I've spent around $10 in Salary Cap/Auction drafts on him. His lower ADP here is likely a reflection of the lack of IL spots in NBFC leagues. 

Francisco Alvarez -- First week of March ADP: 160.24; Since: 326.9

Yeah, he's just a late-round flier at this point, though again, one I'm willing to take a little higher in leagues with an IL spot. I will say, I probably prefer Sean Murphy if I'm going to take one of the injury stash catchers since his timetable to return should be shorter than Alvaez's. Obviously, make sure you snag a cheap option like Danny Jansen or Travis d'Arnaud – or Drake Baldwin if you can – to serve as a short-term replacement for either. 

Grayson Rodriguez -- First week of March ADP: 154.86; Since: 268.15

I dropped Rodriguez into the late-round range of my rankings, but I do worry that might have been an overreaction – he's set to resume throwing this week and there's a chance he's back by May if that's the case. 

Cody Bradford -- First week of March ADP: 312.65; Since: 499.4

Bradford is probably only worth drafting in mixed leagues if you have an IL spot to play with, and even then, there are more interesting late-round priorities at pitcher if you're chasing upside. I would probably only really be looking for him if I had more than two or three IL spots to play with, given how many injuries will be coming in April. 

Luis Gil -- First week of March ADP: 450.69; Since: 637.27

Again, with no IL spots, you basically can't afford to draft and stash Gil when he won't be back until June at the earliest. However, in my Tout Wars draft Sunday, I did have him in my queue for the reserve rounds, since we do have unlimited IL spots. I don't expect much from Gil coming off his lat injury, but there's a chance he's a must-start pitcher in the second half, and this injury shouldn't morph into something that threatens the whole season. 

Tyler Stephenson -- First week of March ADP: 142.41; Since: 179.61

Stephenson joins Alvarez and Murphy on the IL to open the season, and while his absence due to an oblique strain is likely to be the briefest of the trio, he still should be pushed back into the later rounds, because there just isn't as much upside there with his bat. He's a fine starter, but not so good that spending two late-round picks on the catcher position is the best usage of your available resources in one-catcher leagues. 

Biggest fallers

Alec Burleson -- First week of March ADP: 227.33; Since: 252.31

There has been some talk that Burleson could lose some playing time if the Cardinals opt not to play Lars Nootbaar primarily in center field. Burleson is a pretty fringe-y Fantasy option, and he might be best suited as a platoon bat for the Cardinals, so I certainly don't mind him dropping here – I'm usually looking for more upside at this point in the draft than he brings to the table, anyway. 

Michael Harris II -- First week of March ADP: 39.63; Since: 43.16

I don't really see any reason to drop Harris' price here. If anything, Jurickson Profar's wrist injury and reports of Ronald Acuña being held out until possibly mid-May could give Harris a path to an even higher spot in the batting order. Harris just turned 24 last week and might have even more upside than he gets credit for if he manages to stay healthy. Whatever kind of discount is on offer, I'll take it. 

Zach Neto -- First week of March ADP: 192.75; Since: 208.45

Neto won't be ready for Opening Day as he recovers from shoulder surgery, but I'm not sure there should ever really have been an expectation that he would be ready. He hasn't been cleared to throw at full strength yet, nor has he faced live pitching, though both could happen in the next week or two. We're still hoping he'll be back sometime in April, but I'm increasingly less interested in drafting him coming off the shoulder surgery – I just don't see him repeating last year's 23 homers and 30 steals, even on a pro-rated basis. 

Yainer Diaz -- First week of March ADP: 53.65; Since: 57.68

Diaz was just getting way too expensive, and he's back below Adley Rutschman – where he belongs. With Yordan Alvarez slated to play DH full time in 2025 and Christian Walker looking like he'll be ready for Opening Day after dealing with a minor oblique issue, I think Rutschman has a clear playing time edge on Diaz – and might just be the better hitter, too. Diaz is a bust for me and I wouldn't take him inside the first 70 picks, personally. 

Rafael Devers -- First week of March ADP: 36.88; Since: 38.57

I suspect we'll see Devers' price start to rise now that he's back to playing in games. I'm still not thrilled about the fact that Devers' shoulder injuries from last season have seemingly still been an issue all these months later, but it looks like the expectation is still that he'll be ready to play on Opening Day. It sounds like there's some bad feelings between Devers and the Red Sox front office stemming from the signing of Alex Bregman, and it's impossible to know how that might impact Devers' production – off-field stuff matters! – but if Devers is just himself come Opening Day, he's going to be a steal anytime he falls out of the third round. And, if playing DH full-time helps keep him healthier, that could be a nice bonus. 

Reynaldo Lopez -- First week of March ADP: 171.84; Since: 179.35

In the grand scheme of things, this isn't much of a fall, but I wanted to highlight it because I did play a role in it. During our Mock Draft Megastream last week, Frank Stampfl, Scott White and I took part in a 12-team Roto draft on the NFBC platform, where we watched Lopez fall … and fall … and fall all the way to 232 overall before he was finally taken. I had him ranked quite a bit higher than that, to the point where he was the top player on my board for several rounds, and I just kept finding players I'd rather roll the dice on. Lopez is coming off a season with a 1.99 ERA, but with a 3.94 expected ERA that suggests there's worse days ahead. He dealt with forearm and shoulder injuries in the second half and has had reduced velocity so far this spring, which makes me think a repeat performance is extremely unlikely. Even at a discount, I don't really have much interest in Lopez ending up on my teams this season. 

Biggest risers

Clay Holmes -- First week of March ADP: 235.51; Since: 198.66

We couldn't really have asked for Holmes' spring to go much better as he transitions to a starting role. He's flashed a full six-pitch arsenal while striking out 15 and walking five over 14 two-run innings. There's still no guarantee he'll succeed as a full-time starting pitcher, but he sure looked the part this spring, and the price remains reasonable enough to be worth betting on. I probably wouldn't be comfortable pushing him too much higher than this, but I'm excited to see him try to pull this off. 

Cristopher Sanchez -- First week of March ADP: 172.7; Since: 147.72

I think Sanchez was just undervalued all along coming off a season where he had a 3.32 ERA in 181.2 innings of work. I don't think the jump in fastball velocity this spring is likely to make him much more than just an average strikeout pitcher, but his command remains intact amid the jump, and his elite groundball rates will make him an effective pitcher even with pedestrian strikeout skills. His price is perfectly reasonable right now. 

Jacob deGrom -- First week of March ADP: 57.96; Since: 50.22

I already wasn't drafting deGrom in the top 60 – he's No. 65 for me in Roto – so I won't be drafting him as he gets pushed closer to 50. I can see the appeal, obviously, because he might be the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis. I just can't spend this valuable of a pick on a guy who hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season since 2019. If I miss out on 140 elite innings, I won't be happy about it, but it's a risk I'm willing to take when pitching is as easy to find in drafts as it is this season. 

Ryan Weathers -- First week of March ADP: 328.17; Since: 284.92

Yep, I'm totally fine with this one. Weathers is throwing 1-2 mph harder in every start this spring, with the kind of movement profile that suggests his four-seamer could be a very good swing and miss pitch, to go along with a changeup and sweeper combo that already generated plenty of whiffs last season. He has been terrific this spring, allowing just one run in 11.1 innings, albeit with eight walks to 11 strikeouts, which is less than ideal. Weathers has firmly moved himself into late-round target territory, but don't draft him expecting someone you can rely on every week starting on Opening Day. 

Tyler Glasnow -- First week of March ADP: 99.54; Since: 86.46

Yeah, I dunno. He isn't hurt yet, so I guess this is what happens to his price? I supposed there was some question as to how Glasnow would recover after last season's elbow injury, but I don't really think a jump in his price makes much sense – the question wasn't really whether he would be healthy in March, but whether he could stay healthy in May, June, July, and beyond. And that question still hasn't been answered, so I can't exactly endorse a price increase here. 

Gavin Williams -- First week of March ADP: 216.33; Since: 190.25

Williams is healthy after an elbow injury last spring largely derailed his 2024, and he's been pretty dominant this spring, striking out 16 in eight innings of work. He's doing it mostly on the strength of his big, high-extension fastball, though he's also brought his slider back after shelving it last season. He was once a pretty hyped pitching prospect, and if the rest of the arsenal plays up at all, the fastball could be a pretty special pitch. I like this price. 

Wyatt Langford -- First week of March ADP: 40.63; Since: 36.12

There was a brief dip when he was dealing with an oblique injury earlier in spring, but Langford's ascension can only be slowed, not stopped. I don't see much point in pushing Langford up ahead of the likes of Michael Harris or even Lawrence Butler, but it's been clear for a long time that I'm the outlier in my relative Langford skepticism. I like him, but someone else always loves him in every draft. 

Hunter Greene -- First week of March ADP: 109.7; Since: 97.53

Greene is, somehow, throwing even harder this spring, which probably explains most of the rise here – his 5.63 ERA and three homers in 16 innings certainly don't! Greene has never lacked for velocity or the resulting strikeout upside that comes along with it, but I have big questions about how real the growth in quality of contact suppression he showed last season was. I think the price is fine in a vacuum, but I'm not making drafting Greene a priority.

Robbie Ray -- First week of March ADP: 159.22; Since: 141.77

For the most part, I think Ray's rise this spring has mostly been the result of everyone remembering at the same time how good Ray is. That's largely the case for me, as Ray's excellent spring showing has been in line with how he has spent the past half-decade when healthy. That's a big caveat here for a guy who made just seven starts in his return from Tommy John surgery last season before suffering a hamstring injury, but even then, his 33.3% strikeout rate speaks to how much upside is still here. There just isn't that big of a difference between someone like Ray and names like Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell in terms of talent. 

Roki Sasaki -- First week of March ADP: 101.2; Since: 91.0

Sasaki's price was sliding until he made his spring debut, and then it shot back up. I won't be touching him inside of the top 100, unfortunately. Sasaki's fastball velocity was up to around 98 mph in his debut, but then was down to 96.5 in his second, and that 1.5 mph difference could really matter for Sasaki, given his generally mediocre fastball movement and shape profile. His splitter looks like an all-world pitch, but the fastball probably won't miss a ton of bats, so there could be growing pains here. Add in concerns about his ability to hold up – he hasn't thrown more than 111 innings in his previous two seasons and has never thrown more than 129.1 – and I just don't think he's likely to be worth this price. Even if the highs will likely be thrilling as a rookie.