Fantasy baseball Offseason Reactions: Rays ship out Brandon Lowe, Shane Baz in separate deals

The past couple of seasons have been frustrating for the Tampa Bay Rays, and while they certainly aren't rebuilding in the 2026 offseason, they are reshuffling things. And that includes, naturally, trading away players who are finally starting to make some real money. On Friday, that included separate deals to send Shane Baz to the Orioles and Brandon Lowe to the Pirates. Let's take a look at the fallout for each of the principal players involved, starting with Lowe's move to Pittsburgh: 

Brandon Lowe traded to the Pirates

*The Pirates also acquired outfielder Jake Mangum and pitcher Mason Montgomery from the Rays while sending pitcher Mike Burrows to the Astros

With Lowe set to make $11.5 million in 2026, a trade seemed inevitable, and the Pirates did well in taking advantage of another team's cheapness for once. The Pirates have a surplus of talented young pitchers and an obvious need for offense, so they plucked a pitcher without an obvious role and landed one of the best hitters at second base in the whole league. 

Lowe is coming off his healthiest season since 2021, and it resulted in 31 homers in 134 games – for some context, the Pirates haven't had a hitter with 31 homers in a season since Josh Bell in 2019. And it was no outlier for Lowe, who has averaged 34.8 homers per-162 games since establishing himself as an everyday player in 2019. He is, like many left-handed hitters, significantly better with the platoon advantage, though his career .695 OPS against lefties isn't an insurmountable disadvantage. 

It is a park downgrade for Lowe, though that may not matter as much as you think –  he hit just .240/.279/.456 at George M. Steinbrenner Field last season, while Tropicana Field (where Lowe played every season prior to last) is actually a worse park for left-handed hitters than PNC Park. PNC is a tougher park for righties and should play pretty fair for Lowe, so your expectations for him shouldn't change too much based on this deal.

Which means Lowe should remain one of the best values at the second base position for Fantasy yet again. Despite coming off a bounce-back season, Lowe's ADP in early NFBC drafts is just 174.1. He's being held back by concerns about his health, which is fair, but he just proved last season he can give us something close to a full season, and there just aren't many players who can give you as big an edge on the competition as Lowe does with homers relative to other second basemen. 

The Pirates won't play any games with Lowe's playing time, and he should hit in the heart of the order, giving him sizable run production upside, too. Lowe's value at least holds steady after this trade, and he should already be going earlier in drafts than he has been, making him a solid target in all leagues. 

Shane Baz traded to the Orioles

The Orioles have been looking for upside in their rotation, and it's hard to argue Baz doesn't have considerable upside. The question is whether he'll ever be able to live up to it and whether we believe the Orioles are more likely to unlock that than the Rays.

To that latter question, I lean, "No." There just aren't many teams that are better able to coax the most out of pitchers than the Rays, so if they couldn't maximize Baz, do we have much reason to believe the Orioles will? Of course, it's not quite that straightforward. Not every approach works for every pitcher, and sometimes a change of scenery can have value even if the surrounding environment seems like a downgrade. To that point, we can look to Trevor Rogers, who turned into an ace for the Orioles last season after flaming out with the Marlins. 

The Orioles are betting they can do something similar here with Baz entering his age-27 season. And there are obviously tools to work with here once you look past the ugly 4.78 ERA Baz put up in 2025. His xERA was 3.85, which suggests there was plenty of poor luck in Baz's results. He has some strikeout upside and limits damage on contact well enough (.359 xwOBA on contact in 2025, .355 for his career; .368 is league average), but has mostly struggled with consistency.

And I think the Rays approach may have something to do with that. Many pitchers have talked about how the Rays philosophy can often be boiled down to, "Throw your best pitches as often as possible, aim for the middle of the zone," and let your stuff do the rest." That is advice that has worked out well for many pitchers (most notably Tyler Glasnow), but I think it's been holding Baz back. He has good stuff, but doesn't necessarily miss as many bats in the strike zone as you would expect, posting a roughly average in-zone contact rate allowed. That's a problem when Baz throws 53% of his pitches in the zone, compared to the league average of roughly 48%. Those pitches in the zone will help you avoid walks, of course, but it's hard to consistently miss bats that way, and consistently missing bats has been a big issue for Baz.

Can he successfully work in the shadows of the strike zone more often? That remains to be seen, but I think Baz would certainly benefit from aiming for the top of the zone with his four-seamer more and the bottom of the zone with the curveball and changeup more often. It might lead to more walks, but it also might lead to more chase, swing-and-miss, and just generally uncomfortable at-bats. 

Will the Orioles be able to unlock that? I'm skeptical, but then I was skeptical they would be able to maximize Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish the way they have, too. Baz doesn't suddenly become a high-priority target for me as a result of this trade, but I do think his current 209.8 ADP allows for quite a lot of room for profit, making him a viable late-round flier in all leagues. 

Mike Burrows traded to the Astros

We don't need to spend as much time on this part of the deal. Burrows is a 26-year-old who fits in well with the Astros bevy of rotation fillers. He's a depth piece with some upside, and he's landing on a team with a well-earned reputation for wringing the most out of pitchers like this. There probably isn't huge upside here with Burrows, but he could emerge as a useful enough streamer in Houston, at least. 

What about the Rays' prospect haul?

Here are all of the players the Rays got back for their two deals Friday, with some quick thoughts on each:

• Jacob Melton, OF: Melton has a very fantasy-friendly skill set, with 11 homers and 23 steals in just 82 games at Triple-A. But there might just be a bit too much swing-and-miss and platoon risk in his bat to ever really become a Fantasy stalwart. But he's a good defender and should at least get a chance to play against right-handed pitching to start in 2026, making him a viable late-round flier in Roto leagues. He's a very Rays player. 
• Anderson Brito, RHP: Brito is a young fireballer who hasn't thrown more than 53.2 innings in a season to date. There is significant reliever risk here, but the Rays will surely give Brito every chance to be a starter over the next few years, and we're probably looking at a long developmental period for a 21-year-old who hasn't pitched above High-A to date. 
• Slater de Brun, OF: The Orioles liked de Brun enough five months ago to give him an over-slot deal of $4 million after taking him in the Competitive Balance Round A. He's an 18-year-old with plus speed and defensive potential who probably profiles as a top-of-order hitter. He definitely fits in with the profile of other outfielders the Rays have acquired and developed in recent years, though we likely won't see de Brun for three or four years even in a best-case scenario. 
• Caden Bodine, C: Bodine came off the board not long after de Brun and signed for over $3 million and then held his own in an 11-game cameo in A ball last season. He's a contact-first, switch-hitting catcher with a flat swing who scouts hope will develop into at least something of a power threat. If you're looking for a comp, something ranging from Keibert Ruiz to Gabriel Moreno probably works here, though he's probably at least a few years away. 
• Michael Forret, RHP: Forret has been a fast-riser since the Orioles picked him in the 14th round in 2023, and he reached Double-A in 2025 while putting up a 1.58 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate across two levels and 74 innings of work. He has a deep arsenal with multiple breaking balls and offspeed pitches, though one imagines the Rays will try to get him to focus and refine that attack in the long run. He's never thrown 100 innings in a season, but should start the 2026 season at Double-A and could be in the discussion for a rotation spot in 2027 if all goes well.
• Austin Overn, OF: 64 steals in 114 games in 2025 is the first thing you notice, though you'll also notice, with 13 homers, that he isn't a prototypical slap hitter, or anything. In fact, his biggest issue is probably that he just doesn't make enough contact at present to project as an MLB-caliber hitter. But the Rays love this prototype, and his defense and speed should give him a chance to break in sometime in 2027. 

Plus a 2026 draft pick in Competitive Balance Round A.