I'm reluctant to address the Hayden Birdsong of it all here.
It's true he's back in the minors and retains his prospect standing, having yet to accumulate the 50 innings that would take him out of the conversation. It's also true that our last memory of him was a 12-strikeout gem in which his 27 swinging strikes tied for the most in the majors this season.
What's perhaps most true is that when it comes to stashing prospects in redraft leagues, particularly in the Year of Our Lord 2024, I tend to gravitate toward the ones who have already done something. The difficulty curve for incoming minor-leaguers is just so high right now.
Say what you want about Birdsong -- and there's much I could say about his lack of command, both in the majors and minors -- it's clear he came to play. And again, just for the short term, I'm more inclined to bet on such a player than some higher-profile first-timer who, if recent history is any indication, will more likely than not be left shaking in his boots.
So why not include Birdsong in my Five on the Verge? In large part because it would seem redundant. Birdsong has already gotten so much publicity following his gem in Colorado last weekend that it's almost a cop-out to talk about him here too (which I'm absolutely not doing). Also, it's not yet clear whether his demotion was purely administrative seeing as he'll be back to start one game of a doubleheader Saturday.
If he's bumped immediately afterward, then I'll feel more comfortable saying he qualifies for my ...
FIVE ON THE VERGE
(Here are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees
2023 minors: .265 BA (456 AB), 15 HR, 40 SB, .802 OPS, 83 BB, 133 K
2023 majors: .258 BA (31 AB), 4 HR, 1 SB, .980 OPS, 2 BB, 8 K
2024 minors: .356 BA (87 AB), 6 HR, 3 SB, 1.013 OPS, 7 BB, 19 K
That's right: Dominguez is back atop the heap, in part because of what I already said about Birdsong. We've seen Dominguez have success in the majors -- he homered four times during an eight-game stint last year, remember -- and while it doesn't guarantee future success, it does serve as reassurance that he won't be overmatched. But how can Dominguez be called up if he's not even playing in minor-league games? Well, word came out Monday that he's recovered from his strained oblique and set to resume play at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre within a week.
He was putting up killer numbers there prior to this injury, showing no ill effects from last year's Tommy John surgery, but he was blocked at every possible spot at that point. Giancarlo Stanton's hamstring injury and subsequent IL stint likely would have signaled Dominguez's arrival, but by the time Dominguez is back to game-ready, Stanton figures to be as well. On the other hand, Alex Verdugo has seen his numbers crater during Dominguez's absence and likely wouldn't present the obstacle he once did.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
2023 minors: .290 BA (504 AB), 29 HR, 45 2B, .973 OPS, 93 BB, 148 K
2024 minors: .302 BA (288 AB), 22 HR, 21 2B, .999 OPS, 34 BB, 80 K
The Orioles lost Jorge Mateo to a dislocated elbow Tuesday and promptly called up Connor Norby instead of Mayo. Granted, Norby is capable of playing up the middle, like Mateo, while Mayo is confined to the corners, but Jordan Westburg's versatility made it theoretically possible for the Orioles to turn to Mayo instead. For now, at least, they've opted not to. The good news (is good the right word?) is that Mateo's injury figures to be of the long-term variety.
You could argue that Norby deserves first dibs given that he was already up this year and is already on the 40-man roster, and to be fair, he did hit .316 (36 for 114) with seven homers, six steals, and a .951 OPS during his 29 games back at Triple-A Norfolk -- amazing production, truly. But his 87.7 mph average exit velocity and 106.9 mph max exit velocity suggest that his power only translates to the first couple rows over the left-field fence. That's a problem given that he'll be playing half his games at Camden Yards, with its left-field chasm. Mayo, of course, has the sort of power that would play anywhere, being perhaps the best pure masher in all the minors. I would guess that either Norby falters or a deadline deal shakes things up, perhaps even with Mayo being the one on the move.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
2023 minors: .324 BA (460 AB), 31 HR, .975 OPS, 42 BB, 100 K
2023 majors: .235 BA (34 AB), 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
2024 minors: .257 BA (171 AB), 12 HR, .844 OPS, 19 BB, 41 K
Caminero's rehab assignment for a strained quadriceps seems to have concluded. His last four games have been back at Triple-A Durham, and he's gone 4 for 16 with a homer during that time. He'll likely need to get hotter than that to compel the Rays to make a move, but he's not exactly blocked at this point. With Yandy Diaz being away from the team indefinitely, sliding Isaac Paredes over to first base, and Jose Caballero having fallen out of favor weeks ago, the Rays' biggest need would seem to be ... third base. How fitting.
The Rays don't appear to be serious contenders this year, so they may be looking to preserve Caminero's rookie status for next year, which would mean waiting until September to bring him up. But I suspect that a serious hot streak would force the Rays' hand, and I maintain, even with his merely decent production this year, that Caminero is the best-hitting talent in all the minors.
Jackson Jobe, SP, Tigers
2023 minors: 2.81 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 64 IP, 6 BB, 84 K
2024 minors: 1.51 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 41 2/3 IP, 18 BB, 53 K
The Tigers have two openings in their rotation with Reese Olson going down with a strained shoulder and Kenta Maeda being banished to the bullpen, and so far, they've been content to fill them with a smattering of relievers. Or maybe "content" isn't the right word.
"Bullpen games are hard," manager A.J. Hinch said after Tuesday's 5-4 loss. "I don't think this will be the configuration for too long."
Matt Manning would have been the obvious choice to fill one of those two spots, but he's on the minor-league IL with a lat strain. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty is a near certainty to be traded, with Tarik Skubal at least being a remote possibility. What could Hinch have meant when he said it won't be the configuration for too long?
This is entirely speculative, but I'll note that colleague Chris Towers had the same thought: Why not Jobe? I consider the 21-year-old right-hander to be the No. 1 prospect, at least among those who haven't debuted yet, and seeing as he's thrown only 41 2/3 innings because of a hamstring injury, he should have plenty left in the tank. He'd be making the leap from Double-A, which wouldn't be so unexpected at a time when pitchers seem to be acclimating to the majors better than hitters. If nothing else, he has the look of a finished prospect, demonstrating exceptional command of his rising triple-digit fastball and 3,000-rpm slider.
Unlikely though the scenario may be, the upside seems worth pursuing.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles
2023 minors: .323 BA (477 AB), 12 HR, 24 SB, .941 OPS, 101 BB, 118 K
2024 minors: .274 BA (252 AB), 10 HR, 8 SB, .927 OPS, 74 BB, 72 K
2024 majors: 2 for 34, 2 BB, 18 K
You might have thought the Orioles would turn to Holliday rather than Connor Norby when they lost Jorge Mateo to a dislocated elbow Tuesday, but the 20-year-old looked so overmatched in his first major-league trial earlier this year that they're going to be extra cautious about bringing him back. And frankly, his performance at Triple-A Norfolk didn't warrant that sort of consideration ... until recently. All of a sudden, Holliday is batting .294 (15 for 51) with three homers, three steals, and as many walks (14) as strikeouts (14) in July -- and that's even with an 0-for-6 performance in a doubleheader Wednesday.
Is it enough? Maybe not yet, but between that and him recently back to playing second base after an elbow injury limited him to DH, the stage is set for him to return if Norby falters. And as I already pointed out in my Coby Mayo write-up, I kind of expect Norby to falter.
FIVE ON THE PERIPHERY
(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)
Max Meyer, SP, Marlins
2024 minors: 4.34 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 58 IP, 24 BB, 69 K
2024 majors: 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 17 IP, 3 BB, 14 K
You may recall that Meyer had been in my Five on the Verge the past few weeks but is now suddenly out. Does that mean I think he's further from getting the call? No, the Marlins rotation isn't any closer to complete, and he's been steadily upping his pitch count in the minors, presumably in anticipation of a call-up. But to paraphrase Chris Towers on a recent Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, should we really care? He's on a miserable team, has struggled to find consistency in the minors, and wasn't as dominant as he appeared during a three-start trial earlier this season, throwing just 61 percent of his pitches for strikes while recording less than a strikeout per inning.
I've pointed out before that Meyer's struggles at Triple-A are partly a result of the Marlins having him work on other pitches during his time there. Since he began leaning on the slider again, he has a 0.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 in four starts. Even so, there are ample reasons to question his impact potential for Fantasy, and the most likely scenario is that he'll be an also-ran whenever he's called back up.
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals
2023 minors: .292 BA (137 AB), 5 HR, 4 SB, .844 OPS, 14 BB, 38 K
2024 minors: .264 BA (295 AB), 9 HR, 20 SB, .768 OPS, 28 BB, 69 K
The second pick in last year's draft was thought to be an even bigger deal than Wyatt Langford at the time, but Crews hasn't quite taken to the minors the same way, putting up no better than passable numbers between Double- and Triple-A. There's nothing particularly alarming in the plate discipline or exit velocity data, and I do still have him as a top-five prospect, as evidenced by my midseason top 50. It just seems like the Nationals are pushing him hard, and he hasn't quite answered the call yet.
Even so, Mark Zuckerman of MASN, who is one of the better-known Nationals beat writers, recently suggested that we could see Crews in the final two months, whether because the Nationals move Lane Thomas at the deadline or because they just want to audition Crews for 2025. It would surprise me given Crews' performance so far, but I'm not as plugged in as Zuckerman.
Gary Gill Hill, SP, Rays
2023 minors: 5.49 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 41 IP, 19 BB, 39 K
2024 minors: 2.69 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 77 IP, 18 BB, 81 K
Gill Hill has gotten a ton of buzz in prospect circles this year, and I don't claim to understand it completely. Standout pitching performances are a dime a dozen at Low-A, and they're accompanied by more outlandish strikeout rates than Gill Hill's. Many of those pitchers have collegiate experience, though, while Gill Hill is only 19. He generates ground balls at a high rate, which means his success isn't totally dependent on him missing bats. He's added some velocity this year and already shows good command of his entire arsenal. For a pitcher his age, the polish is surprising, which perhaps makes it easier to project even bigger strides moving forward.
Dillon Dingler, C, Tigers
2023 minors: .256 BA (324 AB), 16 HR, .839 OPS, 42 BB, 105 K
2024 minors: .306 BA (255 AB), 16 HR, .924 OPS, 28 BB, 61 K
Dingler was a prospect of some note a couple years ago, but the general consensus was that his power wasn't enough to overcome his strikeout issues, likely giving him a future as a defensive-minded backup. But he's cut his strikeout rate to a more-than-respectable 21 percent this year, and the power has also picked up with 16 home runs, including four in his last three games. His exit velocities are decent, and he's become a more disciplined hitter beyond just the strikeout rate, chasing fewer pitches out of the zone and connecting on more in the zone. His 25 years of age might give some prospect purists pause, but Dingler is positioning himself to be the Tigers' long-term option behind the plate.
Thomas Harrington, SP, Pirates
2023 minors: 3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 127 1/3 IP, 41 BB, 146 K
2024 minors: 2.33 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 65 2/3 IP, 9 BB, 72 K
A supplemental first-round pick in 2022, Harrington has stood out mostly for his control, issuing just 1.2 BB/9 while throwing 69 percent of his pitches for strikes. But in his past two turns, he seems to have turned the corner as a bat-misser, striking out 21 in 13 innings. His fastball isn't overpowering but has good swing-and-miss characters, coming in from a low release point and coaxing chases up in the zone. His secondary arsenal had a ways to go coming into the year, but it seems like he may be making strides with it.