The major-league season is nearly two months old, which means that while stat lines still have some volatility to them, they're not going to be turned around in a matter of days.
The minor-league season, on the other hand, is merely three weeks old, which means a few days' time may be enough to change a player's entire outlook.
Such appears to be the case for Jo Adell, who just a week ago didn't seem particularly close to filling Mike Trout's void in the majors. Now, Russ Langer, play-by-play man for the team that had the misfortune of facing Adell on Monday, wonders why it hasn't already happened:
You can read the tweet for yourself, of course. At the time, it was six home runs in five games. It's now six in six. Still, his 10 home runs currently lead all minor-leaguers.
More on him in a bit, but first, I want to address another outfielder's removal from my Five on the Verge. Jarren Duran -- whose numbers have continued to climb, buoyed most recently by a five-hit, two-homer performance Saturday -- is away from Triple-A Worcester and will remain so for the next couple weeks. He's part of the USA Olympic qualifier team, and while everyone on the Red Sox beat seems convinced he'll be up in June and forgo the Olympics even if Team USA indeed does qualify, we nonetheless can say with complete certainty that he won't be arriving in the next day or two.
He's probably still one of the top five prospects to stash, and I don't mean to confuse the issue. If you picked up Duran recently, particularly in a five-outfielder league, I would advise you to hold on to him. But I will use his absence as an opportunity to highlight another prospect who may be pushing for a promotion, leaving Duran, at least for this week, outside of my ...
Five on the verge
(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Wander Franco, SS, Rays
2019 minors: .327 BA (425 AB), 9 HR, 18 SB, .885 OPS, 56 BB, 35 K
2021 minors: .275 BA (80 AB), 3 HR, 2 SB, .837 OPS, 7 BB, 11 K
A quiet week has Franco looking no closer to a promotion, particularly now that the Rays have already passed him over in favor of Taylor Walls. (What a fakeout that Willy Adames trade turned out to be, huh?) But let's not lose sight of the big picture. Walls is no guarantee to stick. I get the impression he's only getting this chance because it's his only chance, being age 24, to make an impression before Franco arrives. The Adames trade still took away a big obstacle in Franco's path. Now, it's up to him to set Triple-A ablaze.
Vidal Brujan, 2B, Rays
2019 minors: .277 BA (383 AB), 4 HR, 48 SB, .735 OPS, 37 BB, 61 K
2021 minors: .325 BA (77 AB), 7 HR, 9 SB, 1.052 OPS, 12 BB, 14 K
While Franco gets the hype, Brujan, his elder by three years, continues to get results. As skeptical as we were of the power at first, the home runs just keep coming -- most notably from the right side, where he was presumed to be weaker coming into the year. His natural bat-to-ball skills and 80-grade speed don't appear to have slipped either. He's capable of playing shortstop, which made it just as frustrating to see him passed over for Walls, but the Rays may be grooming him for center field now anyway. I'm still betting he beats Franco to the majors, though he remains the lower-priority stash just because of pedigree.
Jo Adell, OF, Angels
2019 minors: .289 BA (305 AB), 10 HR, 27 2B, .834 OPS, 30 BB, 94 K
2020 majors: .161 BA (124 AB), 3 HR, 4 2B, .478 OPS, 7 BB, 55 K
2021 minors: .266 BA (79 AB), 10 HR, 2 SB, 1.022 OPS, 6 BB, 29 K
Yes, with Adell leading all minor-leaguers in home runs, it's getting harder to make the case that his bat isn't ready. But GM Perry Minasian is trying his best. "It's been great watching him do damage over the last four or five days. The quality of the at-bat has improved. The strikeout rate is coming down," Minasian said. "But from my end, the next time we call him up we want to feel like he's gonna take this job and be here, and it's not gonna be a back-and-forth type of shuttle between Triple-A and the big leagues."
The strikeout issue is the central one given how Adell's major-league debut went last year, and even now his rate at Triple-A Salt Lake is an unsightly 33.7 percent. But it's a much more palatable 23.5 percent over his past seven games, which I'll admit is an arbitrary endpoint, but nonetheless, improvement has to begin somewhere. It's also fitting that Minasian's biggest critique of Adell right now is his defense, which is often the last-ditch excuse to satiate the growing appetite for a promotion.
I'm not totally convinced Adell is ready myself, but given how badly the Angels need him, they're running out of excuses. And given his upside, you can't leave him unrostered in a five-outfielder league.
Jesus Sanchez, OF, Marlins
2019 minors: .260 BA (415 AB), 13 HR, 14 2B, .723 OPS, 39 BB, 100 K
2020 majors: 1 for 25, 2B, 4 BB, 11 K
2021 minors: .431 BA (72 AB), 7 HR, 3 3B, 3 2B, 1.308 OPS, 4 BB, 14 K
Between slow development and a sorry big-league debut last year, Sanchez was excluded from most top 100 lists for the 2021 season after being a fixture there three straight years. It's looking like a mistake because there has been no hitter hotter than the 23-year-old so far this minor-league season. Scouts always liked his ability to impact the ball, which is what earned him those high prospect rankings in the first place, but now he's doing a better job of elevating and sending the ball out of the park.
With his natural bat-to-ball skills, it adds up to an interesting offensive profile, and while it doesn't seem like the Marlins are ready to give up on any of their starting outfielders yet, it's clear that their offense needs help. I acknowledge that it took numbers this eye-popping to get him back on the Fantasy radar, but nonetheless, here we are.
Jackson Kowar, SP, Royals
2019 minors: 7-10, 3.52 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 148 1/3 IP, 43 BB, 144 K
2021 minors: 4-0, 1.25 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 21 2/3 IP, 7 BB, 32 K
With a 10-strikeout effort Saturday, Kowar has now thrown four straight gems at Triple-A Omaha, making him more accomplished than any of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic or Daniel Lynch were when they got the call. By Royals standards, he's downright overdue at age 24. Of course, there is the small matter of needing an opening for him, but they're already short-handed with Danny Duffy sidelined by a flexor strain in his elbow. It isn't thought to be a long-term injury, but even presuming he's back in short order, the Royals don't have an obvious next in line if, say, Kris Bubic were to struggle. That ship sailed when they shifted Jake Junis to the bullpen.
Five on the periphery
(These are some other prospects doing something of note)
Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds
2019 minors: 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 18 1/3 IP, 0 BB, 30 K
2021 minors: 2-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 22 2/3 IP, 6 BB, 32 K
Between Hunter Greene, who I highlighted last week, and now Lodolo, the Reds' top two pitching prospects are looking better than ever. It's a stark contrast to last year, when Greene was still on the long road to recovery from Tommy John surgery and Lodolo was struggling with his velocity at the alternate training site. But the top pitcher taken in the 2019 draft (seventh player overall) is clearly back in form now and showing the polish he was purported to have from the start. Overpowering a bunch of teenagers in the lower minors two years ago is one thing, but what he's doing now at Double-A is genuinely impressive.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
2019 minors: .259 BA (108 AB), 1 HR, 2 SB, .701 OPS, 11 BB, 28 K
2021 minors: .338 BA (71 AB), 6 HR, 3 SB, 1.083 OPS, 9 BB, 21 K
Though there was little minor-league track record to back it up (and no one had the guts to put him in the top 100), some publications at the start of the year were touting Henderson as the next great shortstop prospect. He's making good on that prediction so far, applying some of the mechanical changes he made at the alternate training site last year for improved power. He'll be tested more as he moves up the ladder, playing at the lowest level of full-season ball right now, but at age 19, there's no rush.
Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals
2021 minors: 1-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 22 IP, 8 BB, 34 K
Being just the 22nd pick in last year's draft, Cavalli may not have gotten the hype he deserved coming into this season, failing to crack any major top 100 list. But his first four starts as a professional have gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. He already has an advanced arsenal with four plus pitches. The only shortcoming I can see is possibly some control issues, but they don't appear major. We'll see how he fares whenever he moves up to Double-A, but he's looking like the real deal to me.
Nick Pratto, 1B, Royals
2019 minors: .191 BA (419 AB), 9 HR, 17 SB, .588 OPS, 49 BB, 164 K
2021 minors: .313 BA (64 AB), 7 HR, 3 SB, 1.193 OPS, 17 BB, 19 K
If you've been looped into the prospect scene for a few years, you might remember the name Nick Pratto, the 14th pick in the 2017 draft. He looked like a total flop and had pretty much dropped off the radar before turning heads with a .345 (10 for 29) batting average and four homers this spring. Apparently, he completely remade his swing at the alternate training site last year, resulting in harder contact, more walks and fewer strikeouts, which is exactly what we're seeing now, highlighted by a three-homer game Friday. He's a sneaky pickup in Dynasty leagues.
Cornelius Randolph, OF, Phillies
2019 minors: .247 BA (348 AB), 10 HR, 9 SB, .723 OPS, 37 BB, 102 K
2021 minors: .356 BA (59 AB), 4 HR, 3 SB, 1.077 OPS, 8 BB, 14 K
If you think back really hard, you might even remember the name Cornelius Randolph, the 10th pick in the 2015 draft. What a dud he turned out to be, especially given that his bat was thought to be his only real asset. So what's gotten into him now? He's 23, he's at Triple-A, and he's suddenly killing it. I don't have a clue, but he's young enough to make something of himself still if it turns out to be legit. Like Pratto, he's a fun flier in Dynasty leagues where the minor-league talent pool is mostly tapped out already.