I decided last week that I should dedicate my Prospects Report to some of the minor-leaguers moved at the trade deadline, forgoing my usual Five on the Verge, Five on the Periphery format. It seemed only right to seize upon the big event of the moment. Of course, other prospects were still doing things, but I figured, hey, I could always write about Zach Dezenzo next week.
Joke's on me. The Astros called up Dezenzo Tuesday. He's a major-leaguer, which means writing about him here now seems inappropriate
But I'm nothing if not inappropriate -- a regular Howard Stern, you might even say. (Is that even what he's known for anymore?) Anyway, Dezenzo ... I think he's good. I wasn't alone in thinking this -- in fact, Baseball Prospectus ranked him 40th among all prospects coming into the season -- but then a wrist injury sidelined him for the first two months. It became a real out-of-sight, out-of-mind situation.
It took only 38 games for him to put himself in position for a promotion, but I want to focus on just the final 11 of those games, the ones at Triple-A Sugar Land:
| ||||||||||||
That's the good stuff right there. It's not like there's any one thing to zero in on. He's just a solid all-around hitter with no plate discipline concerns, no exit velocity concerns, and no launch angle concerns. He even seems capable of stealing the occasional base. He also arrives at a time when the Astros have been struggling to fill out their lineup. Jonathan Singleton hasn't panned out at first base, and Dezenzo is capable of manning that position. Or he could slot in at DH while Yordan Alvarez fills in for Kyle Tucker in the outfield. Dezenzo has already made a start at each of those spots, so it's clear the Astros intend to play him.
Above all, these remaining two months figure to serve as an audition for what figures to be his ultimate destination: third base. Alex Bregman is a free agent after the season, after all.
OK, so if you've heard what I have to say about Dezenzo. Now, if I can real quickly address the other call-up from Tuesday, Diamondbacks catcher Adrian Del Castillo. Get a load of his numbers:
| ||||||||||||
Back before he was dealt to the Marlins at the trade deadline. I wondered why Deyvison De Los Santos was getting all the attention in the Diamondbacks system when Del Castillo was putting up numbers just as good, only without the obvious plate discipline concerns. In fact, it's a genuine strength for the 24-year-old, whose exit velocities (90.7 mph average and 111 mph max) are also impressive. To some degree, Del Castillo a product of Triple-A Reno -- because every hitter who plays there is -- but the overall hitting profile looks legit.
What about the defensive profile? There are some concerns, and the likelihood of him moving out from behind the plate probably goes a long way toward suppressing his prospect standing. But he's getting his chance now with Gabriel Moreno sidelined by a groin injury, and while I think it's less likely Del Castillo makes a Fantasy impact than Dezenzo does, the potential is there.
Now then, for the prospects who aren't in the majors already ...
FIVE ON THE VERGE
(Here are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
2023 minors: .324 BA (460 AB), 31 HR, .975 OPS, 42 BB, 100 K
2023 majors: .235 BA (34 AB), 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
2024 minors: .272 BA (217 AB), 15 HR, .865 OPS, 21 BB, 48 K
Well, that's great and all, but where's he going to play with Isaac Paredes already at third base?
Any promotion talk concerning Caminero this season has centered on that question -- a question rendered moot when the Rays dealt Paredes to the Cubs at the trade deadline. Now, the only player standing in Caminero's way is Jose Caballero, a hitting lightweight who entered Wednesday's game batting .182 (22 for 121) in his past 39. And what about Caminero himself? Why, he's only batting .342 (13 for 38) with three homers in his last nine games at Triple-A Durham, still delivering his usual top-of-the-scales exit velocities. In fact, he's hit a ball as hard as 117.2 mph this year, a mark topped by only seven major-leaguers.
Now, you might argue that if the Rays haven't called up Caminero yet, then they must be waiting until September (or slightly before) to keep his rookie eligibility intact for next year, and hey, you're probably right. They leave open the possibility of draft pick rewards by doing so, and why would they turn down an incentive like that? Even so, Caminero is my top prospect to stash because I think the impact he'll make, even if he's up later, will be greater than anyone else you could stash, particularly since he already got his feet wet late last year.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees
2023 minors: .265 BA (456 AB), 15 HR, 40 SB, .802 OPS, 83 BB, 133 K
2023 majors: .258 BA (31 AB), 4 HR, 1 SB, .980 OPS, 2 BB, 8 K
2024 minors: .316 BA (114 AB), 6 HR, 5 SB, .889 OPS, 9 BB, 29 K
OK, so there's one other prospect who could match Caminero in terms of Fantasy impact down the stretch, and it just so happens he got his feet wet late last year, too. I'm talking about Dominguez, who probably would be up already if he hadn't missed six weeks with an oblique strain. He's fully back up to speed now and has been as explosive at the plate as ever this year, showing no ill effects from last year's Tommy John surgery. The problem for him is twofold: Giancarlo Stanton is back off the IL, and Alex Verdugo is looking alive again at the plate. The Yankees could have used Dominguez during the six weeks he was injured, but now?
"We like what we have currently," GM Brian Cashman said last week when asked about Dominguez. "Nice to know that that's sitting there if we need it."
As with the Rays and Caminero, it may be that the Yankees would prefer to wait until September or so to call up Dominguez, thus preserving his rookie eligibility for next season. If Caminero is worth stashing until then, I dare say Dominguez is as well. Just look what he did in his eight games with the big club last year. The main reason he ranks behind Caminero here is that his path to playing time isn't as clear.
Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, Marlins
2023 minors: .254 BA (452 AB), 20 HR, .728 OPS, 25 BB, 125 K
2024 minors: .322 BA (376 AB), 31 HR, 1.009 OPS, 28 BB, 91 K
Big step down here from Caminero and Dominguez to De Los Santos, who I'm not as high on as much of the Fantasy-playing world seems to be. Still, he's a productive minor-leaguer with a clear path to playing time, which are two of the major bullet points for a stashable prospect. Presumably, he would be called up to play first base rather than third base, with Jake Burger sliding back over to third base, to the extent that he matters. At this point, anyone who isn't a long-term solution for the Marlins is just in the way.
So what makes me bearish on De Los Santos? To this point, he's been even more productive at Triple-A Jacksonville than he was at Triple-A Reno, so I can't just credit a hitter-friendly environment for his numbers. But that was always a stretch given how hard he impacts the ball. His average exit velocity is 92 mph and his max is 116 mph -- readings that look a lot like Yordan Alvarez's.
Deyvison De Los Santos really just did that.
— Fish on the Farm (@marlinsminors) August 3, 2024
460 feet.#Marlins
pic.twitter.com/g3A1a2wSbm
The bigger issue for me is that his chase rate is nearly 45 percent, which may work well enough against minor-leaguers but is easily exploitable for major-leaguers. An ideal chase rate would be closer to 25 percent, so suffice it to say De Los Santos is a long way off. I will note, however, that Christian Encarnacion-Strand's chase rate at Triple-A last year was 41 percent, and while the jury's still out as to what kind of major-leaguer he'll be, he did make an immediate impact after getting the call.
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals
2023 minors: .292 BA (137 AB), 5 HR, 4 SB, .844 OPS, 14 BB, 38 K
2024 minors: .267 BA (341 AB), 9 HR, 21 SB, .780 OPS, 31 BB, 79 K
I'm pretty skeptical Crews will actually come up, to be honest, for the simple reason that he hasn't been all that productive this season. If you're the Nationals, what's the rush? He was only drafted last year. Still, I'm not the only one with instincts to speak of, and some who cover the Nationals have said it's likely he'll get the call. So all right, then.
If he does, I do think it's possible he makes an impact. The actual production may be lacking, but the data underlying it is strong. Just looking at his 36 games at Triple-A, he has an 8.7 percent walk rate, a 16.3 percent strikeout rate, a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, a 112.6 percent max exit velocity, and an 88.2 percent zone-contact rate. Nothing wrong with any of those numbers. There are also no major launch angle or chase concerns to speak of.
He probably deserves a better stat line than he's actually delivered, and with a big-league promotion, he'd be starting fresh. But again ... why? Even if you look at it from a purely competitive standpoint, the Nationals are actually getting something from Alex Call right now, so I don't see much reason for them to press the issue with Crews. Granted, I'm still calling him the fourth-best prospect to stash, but you need to go in with your eyes open.
Shay Whitcomb, SS, Astros
2023 minors: .240 BA (538 AB), 35 HR, 20 SB, .771 OPS, 42 BB, 178 K
2024 minors: .301 BA (389 AB), 24 HR, 26 SB, .929 OPS, 52 BB, 89 K
If the Astros were willing to call up Zach Dezenzo to inject a little life into their offense, then it seems likely they'd do the same with Whitcomb, who has been one of the top performers at Triple-A all season long and has nothing left to prove at age 25. He's never been a highly regarded prospect, which makes me question if he really needs to be stashed ahead of time (realistically, probably not), but I think he's flying under the radar for a couple reasons.
The first is that he was long defined by an exorbitant strikeout that appears to have gone away. It's under 20 percent now, which is closer to the other end of the spectrum, and his zone-contact and chase rates are both fine as well. The second is that the industry is biased against older prospects, particularly those who've already turned 25, because of course no quality major-leaguers have emerged from that contingent (he said sarcastically, pointing to Michael Busch as just one example). Whitcomb had a combined 55 homers and steals in the minors last year. He already has a combined 50 this year. He's also capable of playing most anywhere on the diamond. I think he's kind of interesting and stashable at least in AL-only leagues.
FIVE ON THE PERIPHERY
(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)
Matt Shaw, SS, Cubs
2023 minors: .357 BA (157 AB), 8 HR, 15 SB, 1.018 OPS, 9 BB, 25 K
2024 minors: .276 BA (319 AB), 14 HR, 25 SB, .830 OPS, 45 BB, 67 K
I don't know how realistic it is that we see Matt Shaw in the majors this year given that the Cubs just acquired Isaac Paredes to be their third baseman for the foreseeable future. That's the position Shaw has played most in the minors this year and is likely his long-term home. The Cubs are also set up the middle with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, and while it's possible they could rotate all of them at DH to get Shaw involved ... I just don't know.
The only reason it's even a thought just a year after the 22-year-old was drafted is because he's been one of the hottest minor-league hitters since mid-June (29 games, to be precise), batting .360 (40 for 111) with eight homers, eight steals and an OPS around 1.100. He only recently moved up to Triple-A and is 1 for 7 there so far, but even if it doesn't happen this year, it's clear Shaw is on the fast track. How exactly the Cubs align their infield long-term remains to be seen.
Christian Moore, 2B, Angels
2024 minors: 12 for 24, 4 HR, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
It's easy to poke fun at the Angels for rushing their first-round pick to the majors every year, almost as if they're looking to beat their own record, but with what Moore is doing right now, how could they possibly resist? The eighth pick in this year's draft class (and first to be featured in the Prospects Report) has already climbed to Double-A, and in his third game there Wednesday, he went 4 for 5 with two home runs.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
— Rocket City Trash Pandas (@trashpandas) August 8, 2024
THIS MAN IS SIMPLY NOT REAL
CHRISTIAN MOORE WALKOFF HOMER IN THE BOTTOM OF THE 9TH!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/6ve1EjE1sG
Again, that's at Double-A ... less than a month after being drafted ... and only five games into his professional career. The 21-year-old looks like a man among boys with his broad shoulders and chiseled physique and reportedly has a mature approach at the plate as well. His power should definitely play, but with the difficulty curve being as high as it is for hitters right now, a hurried promotion may be unwise.
Colby Thomas, OF, Athletics
2023 minors: .286 BA (507 AB), 18 HR, 25 SB, .844 OPS, 37 BB, 146 K
2024 minors: .293 BA (382 AB), 24 HR, 14 SB, .946 OPS, 30 BB, 92 K
The Athletics have shown a willingness to gamble on hitters who can mash, even if the hit tool is suspect, and Thomas is another such example. The 23-year-old has done his best work since moving up to Triple-A Las Vegas, batting .382 (21 for 55) with six homers in his past 14 games. It's a hitter's paradise, sure, but what matters more for Thomas than the ball off the bat is the bat to the ball. His strikeout, zone-contact, and chase rates are all on the concerning side, though none is downright scary, which offers hope that he can shore up his swing and swing decisions before reaching the majors. He's not the highest-probability prospect, but he should get his chance sooner than not.
Caden Dana, SP, Angels
2023 minors: 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 68 1/3 IP, 30 BB, 89 K
2024 minors: 2.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 111 1/3 IP, 33 BB, 122 K
For being his organization's top prospect (either him or Moore, anyway), Dana has kind of flown under the radar, but he's been remarkably steady as a 20-year-old pitching in Double-A. The Angels haven't taken it easy on him either, having him work into the seventh inning in seven of his 19 starts. He had a complete-game effort two turns ago, giving up just three hits while striking out 10, and followed it up with seven shutout innings in his latest start. His fastball is probably his best weapon, which is a good sign for his upside, but his slider is capable of getting whiffs, too. Control was an issue in the past, but he's made big strides in that area this year and just looks like a solid all-around pitching prospect.
Jackson Ferris, SP, Dodgers
2023 minors: 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 56 IP, 33 BB, 77 K
2024 minors: 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 98 1/3 IP, 43 BB, 119 K
One of the two prospects acquired from the Cubs in the Michael Busch deal, Ferris is already looking like another scouting success story for the Dodgers, having just earned a bump to Double-A after throwing eight no-hit innings in his latest start. His final five at High-A saw him put together a 0.79 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9. There's some work to be done on his delivery to make him a better strike-thrower, but he already has such a good feel for his fastball, slider, and curveball that he shouldn't face much resistance as he climbs the minor-league ladder.
