Rarely does a player's Fantasy value change more than when he moves to or from the minor leagues, so I'd be remiss not to lead off this stockwatch with the three major promotion announcements from the weekend.
With apologies to Mariners first baseman Tyler Locklear and Brewers starting pitcher Carlos Rodriguez, the ones I'm referring to are Rockies second baseman Adael Amador, Braves starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep, and White Sox starting pitcher Drew Thorpe. Suffice it to say stock up for all three.
But of course, you're probably wondering to what degree we should prioritize them in Fantasy. Chris Towers' latest Waiver Wire article answers that question in greater detail than I will here, but I'd like to share my own thoughts briefly, beginning with Amador.
It feels like a rush job, honestly. It's true, the 21-year-old was sizzling hot leading up to this promotion, batting .359 (14 for 39) with six homers and six steals in nine games, but it had only brought his batting average up to .194 ... at Double-A ... in a year when every prized hitter call-up from Wyatt Langford to Jackson Holliday to Kyle Manzardo has fallen flat on his face. Amador is an excellent prospect who's expected to contend for batting titles someday with plus speed and usable power, but if he makes a Wally Pipp out of Brendan Rodgers this year, it'll be a bigger surprise than him getting the call in the first place.
The Waldrep promotion was the one that had me most excited. After all, I had just written about how he could be the one to stop the revolving door that was once Spencer Strider's rotation spot. But then his actual debut Sunday took the spring out of my step. He allowed seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, striking out one and walking four. His stuff looked good, his fastball peaking at 98 mph and his splitter registering six swinging strikes, but he doesn't have much of a leash here. The Braves still have Spencer Schwellenbach on the roster and will likely give both him and Waldrep one more turn to show who deserves the spot more.
Thorpe has had terrific numbers the past two years, but like Amador, he's getting the call straight from Double-A. In theory, that's not as big of a deal for a 23-year-old, particularly one who's been as efficient as Thorpe, but the source of his success comes down to one pitch: The changeup. Minor leaguers aren't used to seeing great changeups, but major leaguers are. I worry that the rest of Thorpe's arsenal will be exposed at the highest level, and given that he'll be pitching for the White Sox, his margin for error is thin to begin with.
The truth is that I only put in bids for these three in deeper leagues with 15 teams or more. I considered it in the shallower leagues, but of course, you can't add a player without dropping one. And the players who I would have dropped in such leagues were, frankly, of more value to me. I wouldn't say, for instance, that any of the three pitchers featured in the Stock Down section of this article is worth dropping for any of the call-ups from this weekend.
First, though, let's look at the players who raised their stock.
I keep thinking Heliot Ramos' near-30 percent strikeout rate will eventually bring his numbers down to size, but instead, they just get better and better. Even with an 0-fer Sunday, he's still 11 for 26 (.423) with four homers in his past seven games. Sure, that's a small sample, but he was performing well enough prior to then that he's now started 27 straight for a Giants team that loves to move players in and out of the lineup. He's even seeing some time in the leadoff spot. Ramos may have lost some of his prospect shine with his underwhelming big-league showings in 2022 and 2023, but he's still only 24 and currently boasts the exit velocity readings of a middle-of-the-order power bat. As weak as outfield is, he demands your attention.
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You may recall seeing Matt Waldron on this list last week as well, but the knuckleballer stigma is hard to overcome. With each successful start, though, Waldron's case becomes more durable. This latest one Saturday came against a quality Diamondbacks lineup that ranks in the top third in runs scored and gives him a 1.78 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over his past six. As I pointed out last week, his 91 mph fastball is much harder than a knuckleballer customarily throws, and his knuckleball itself is of higher velocity, too, reminiscent of the power knuckleball that made R.A. Dickey such a success. Waldron's fuller arsenal may help him to better navigate the days when his knuckleball isn't behaving like it should, but certainly right now, the one pitch is more than hitters can handle.
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TJ Friedl has missed more games than he's played this year because of a fractured wrist and a fractured thumb, but he had 18 home runs and 27 stolen bases last year. And in 11 games since returning from his latest IL stint, he's shown that same power/speed profile that's in even higher demand this year with offense being suppressed around the league. There was some skepticism over last year's performance given that he makes some of the lowest-quality contact in all the league, but the spray angle is just right for pulling the ball over the fence. His 3.09 point-per-game average last year was actually identical to Mike Trout's (in what was a bad year for Trout, granted), so you wouldn't want to sell Friedl short now.
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Aaron Judge has been about as hot as any hitter can be since May 4 (the stretch depicted here), so in that respect, his 7-for-11 performance with three home runs and two doubles this weekend is just par for the course. But the longer it goes on, the more likely it seems that this surge for Judge isn't just a hot streak but a return to the form that made him far and away the best player in Fantasy two years ago. That 2022 season was a bad year for offense, and so Judge's 62 home runs led the field by 16. This year is shaping up to be an even worse year for offense, which means that his outlier exit velocities could once again have an outsized influence on the home run leaderboard. And it just so happens that Judge's nearest competitor for the best-in-Fantasy title, his own teammate Juan Soto, sat out the entire weekend with a mysterious forearm injury.
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David Hamilton's four stolen bases in three games this weekend bring him to 13 on the year, moving him high enough up the leaderboard to merit Fantasy consideration. He did, after all, have 57 stolen bases in the minors last year and 70 two years ago. He tends to sit against left-handers and strikes out too much for what's supposed to be a contact profile, giving him a .242 xBA that's well below his actual .282 mark. But seeing as he's eligible at both shortstop and second base, the utility here encourages a glass-half-full outlook. It's not far-fetched to think Hamilton could have a bigger impact than Jose Caballero the rest of the way, but Caballero is rostered in more than three times as many leagues.
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In isolation, this start for Bailey Ober wouldn't mean much, but it gives him a 7.61 ERA in his past five starts, raising his season mark from 3.77 to 5.13. There's still a 1.19 WHIP to go with that 5.13 ERA -- a testament to Ober's low walk rate and low BABIP -- but his vulnerability to the long ball is wreaking havoc right now. And seeing as he's never been a pitcher who piles up strikeouts nor one who works deep into games, I'm beginning to wonder if the upside is worth the downside, particularly with pitching being in such low demand right now. I'm not saying Ober is the worst use of a roster spot, but dropping him is officially in the conversation.
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I'm reluctant to stick Reese Olson with the "stock down" label because his roster rate has never risen to the level I think it deserves to be, but I could make that case more convincingly when he had a 1.92 ERA two turns ago. Now, it's at 3.43 -- which isn't bad, really, but coming from a pitcher with a 1-7 record and less than a strikeout per inning, it's not winning anyone over. Olson still has two pitches (the slider and changeup) with better than a 40 percent whiff rate, which is a rare quality even among aces, so I do think in the long run, he'll be worth having around. But if you need to free up a roster spot in the meantime, Friday's start gives you an excuse.
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Clearly, nobody's dropping Jared Jones, who was the biggest pitching find in April, and his start Sunday wasn't even that bad. But for an extended stretch now, he's been decidedly less than sharp. To put actual numbers to it, he has a 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9 in his past six turns, and it's that last number that's most concerning. Early on, Jones was inviting Spencer Strider comparisons with the speed and shape of his fastball and the whiffs he was piling up on both it and his slider. Now, he's having to mix in a changeup more to keep hitters honest. I still feel comfortable projecting him as a top-40 starting pitcher the rest of the way, but before, he was comfortably in my top 20.
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