MLB: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA TODAY Sports

You know who might be the most difficult player to rank in Fantasy Baseball these days? Xander Bogaerts.

Bogaerts was off to a miserable start to the season, hitting just .219/.265/.316 when he injured his shoulder in late May, and when he came back, he talked about needing to rework his swing to protect the shoulder, which really didn't engender much confidence that he was going to be a difference-maker upon his return. And, given how much skepticism there already was around Bogaerts coming into the season, I think it's fair to say that a lot of Fantasy players (and analysts!) didn't expect a return to form from the veteran.

In some ways, those skeptics have looked awfully foolish. Bogaerts played his seventh game since coming back from the injury Wednesday, and he went 4 for 4 with a walk against the Nationals, bringing his batting average to .483 in those seven games. He has hit safely in all but one of those games, and that is actually underselling him: Bogaerts has multiple hits in six of those seven games now. And the quality of contact has been pretty solid – he had two hard-hit balls Wednesday, including one that was 106.4 mph, and his average exit velocity is up to 89.9 mph; it was just 86.2 mph prior to the injury.

Of course, all 14 of those hits so far have been singles, which isn't necessarily what we want to see. Wednesday, three of the hits traveled 108 feet or less, and finding success this way hardly feels sustainable. So, is it a fluke? Well, his expected wOBA in the month of July is .353, and Bogaerts is the kind of hitter who has pretty consistently outperformed his expected stats over his career – since 2015, he has a .352 wOBA and a .328 xwOBA, and he outran it by a similar margin last season. 

Which is all to say, I'm feeling pretty good about Bogaerts right now! I haven't been too aggressive in moving him up my rankings yet, but he is already back into my top 10 at second base and top 15 among shortstops. I'm a little worried about what it looks like when the singles stop getting through, but the underlying data is strong enough – as is Bogaerts' track record – that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt moving forward. 

Thursday's waiver targets

Robbie Ray, SP, Giants (73%) – After the first inning, it looked like Ray was in for a disastrous season debut, as he needed 34 pitches to get through the inning and was bouncing nearly every breaking pitch he threw. Which makes his final line – 5 IP, 0 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – look like a minor miracle. But the truth is, Ray looked really good once he settled in. He struck out the side in the second inning and finished the game with a whopping 22 swinging strikes – nine with the four-seamer, six with the slider, and seven with the curveball. His velocity was up to 95.2 mph, his highest in a start since July of 2022 and a mark he hasn't topped since July of 2021. Does this mean Ray is back to being the ace-level pitcher he was in 2021? Of course not! It's just one start, after all! But this was about as promising a first start back from Tommy John surgery as you could have hoped for, and I think we should view Ray as a must-roster player at this point. 

Connor Norby, 3B, Orioles (10%) – Jorge Mateo was diagnosed with a dislocated elbow and is going to miss some time, though the extent of the injury and how much time, exactly, remains to be seen. But Orioles manager Brandon Hyde did confirm that Norby is going to get the call and should get "some regular playing time." The last time Norby got the call, he played just four games in eight days before being sent back down, but it sounds like it's going to be different this time, and he's worth adding under the assumption that is true. We're talking about a top-100 prospect – not on the level of Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, but still a talented young guy – who has hit .296/.371/.505 with a 29-homer, 16-steal pace in his Triple-A career, and that's worth chasing on the waiver wire, just in case he runs away with this job.

Xavier Edwards, SS, Marlins (20%) – We're a few years removed from the time when Edwards was someone people got excited about, but maybe it's time to bring that excitement back. He went 3 for 3 with a walk Wednesday against the Orioles, his eighth multi-hit game since the start of July, and he is now hitting .361/.446/.417 in the majors this season. He won't sustain that batting average, obviously, but with his speed and contact abilities, Edwards could be a plus there, and he'll tack on some stolen bases too. It's a bad lineup, but Edwards could move up it fairly quickly, and might just be a viable MI option in categories leagues – especially with the help he can provide in stolen bases. 

Yariel Rodriguez, SP, Blue Jays (26%) – Rodriguez just continues to pitch well, this time limiting the Rays to just two runs on two hits over 5.2 innings with six strikeouts Wednesday night. Since returning to the Jays rotation at the beginning of July, he has 25 strikeouts, a 2.01 ERA, and a 0.76 WHIP across four starts. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and that likely won't change until the Jays extend his pitch count – he threw just 73 pitches Wednesday – which limits his upside. But if they do opt to do that, Rodriguez could be a pretty valuable pitcher down the stretch. 

Juan Yepez, 1B, Nationals (23%) – He just keeps hitting. Now, in fairness, Wednesday's game was only a one-hit game, a relative disappointment given that Yepez had multiple hits in five of his previous seven games. However, he did go deep for the second time since joining the Nationals, while extending his hitting streak to 15 games to open his season. Yepez has a .331 xBA and .459 xSLG entering Wednesday, so it's not exactly a fluke, either. I don't know how sustainable all this is, but Yepez is so locked in right now that I think he's worth adding as a CI or in five-outfielder leagues, at the very least.