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Is there any precedent for what we're seeing from Luis Gil right now? 

Gil went from a long shot to even make the Yankees rotation this spring to serving as a serviceable, but pretty mediocre pitcher in April, and then turned in one of the best months by a pitcher we've seen in a long time in May. And now, entering July, after yet another frustrating performance Tuesday night, that looks like a total fluke.

Gil's May was spectacular. Over six starts, he posted a 0.70 ERA with 44 strikeouts, making him the 36th pitcher over the past 20 seasons to post an ERA of 1.00 or lower in a month with at least 35 innings pitched, and there aren't many flukes on that list. Sure, you've got pretty unremarkable guys like Martin Perez, Shelby Miller, and late-career Kenny Rogers on the list, but none of them came close to Gil's strikeout numbers in their respective stretches. 

Narrowing the list down to guys who had at least a strikeout per inning in the month we're talking about, it mostly looks like a list of the best pitchers of the past 20 years: 

Among that list, only Gil, Flaherty, Gallen, and Weaver didn't win a Cy Young award, and only Gil and Flaherty didn't have at least two top-five Cy Young finishes. Which is to say, there isn't much recent history of a month as good as Gil from a player who wasn't at least a must-start Fantasy option. And Gil definitely doesn't look like that right now.

After allowing four runs over four innings Tuesday against the Reds, Gil now has a 6.84 ERA over his past six starts, and his control has especially fallen apart over the past four, with 13 walks to 12 strikeouts in 14.2 innings of work. And that's the primary concern here, as Gil had an 18% walk rate in April, and a 14% rate during his minor-league career, to boot; in May, it was just 8.5%.

It's hard to fake what Gil did in May, and it speaks to his talent that he was able to put a month like that together. But it's starting to look like a massive outlier for his career, and I'm not sure I want to bet on him getting back to that level. The Yankees are going to have to find ways to limit Gil's innings – he's already thrown more innings this season than any season since 2021 – and this slump might be just the excuse they need to pull back on him. 

At the very least, they probably aren't going to have an especially long leash with him moving forward. Even if the Yankees haven't lost faith in him – and, it bears mentioning that there's no reason to believe they have – they're going to need to limit his innings if they want to have him available for the postseason. This could mean either a looming break or a move to the bullpen to keep his arm fresh, and either would have a negative impact on Gil's value moving forward unless he worked into the mix for the ninth inning alongside (or in place of) a scuffling Clay Holmes. 

I'm not ready to drop Gil just yet, but if you're wondering if you missed your sell-high window with him … uh, yeah. You did! I still think there's a pretty good chance Gil is going to have a stretch of Fantasy-relevant performances again, but I moved him way down in my rankings after this showing, into the same range of talented, but untrustworthy pitchers like Carlos Rodon, Kevin Gausman, and Nick Pivetta. 

And there's plenty more room for him to fall from there. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action, beginning with the top waiver-wire targets: 

Wednesday's top waiver targets

Nate Lowe, 1B, Rangers (55%) – I've been hesitant to give up on Lowe all season, so of course, the day I finally, officially moved him out of my top-200 overall rankings, he goes off for two homers. That brings his total for the season to just six, and his underlying numbers don't exactly suggest he's been unlucky to earn those results – his expected slugging percentage entering play Tuesday was just .342, and he had a career-worst barrel rate to go along with it. But if this is the start of him figuring it out, there's still the potential for a ton of counting stats in a Rangers lineup I expect much better things from in the second half. 

Daniel Schneemann, OF, Guardians (7%) – The Guardians keep pulling these guys out of nowhere, and Schneeman continues to perform. He hit his third homer Tuesday in just 73 plate appearances, and his OPS is now up to .864. He's not a full-time player, typically sitting against lefties, but Schneeman has been productive enough to be worth a pickup in deeper, daily-lineup leagues, especially if he can tap into some of the speed he showed in the minors. 

Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants (12%) – Birdsong hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his first two MLB starts, but Tuesday's against the Braves was a bit better, with five strikeouts and two walks over five innings, allowing two runs. His fastball looks like a pretty good pitch, thanks to consistent high-90s velocity, but he also got his slider and changeup working, generating seven combined whiffs on 21 swings with them. If he can generate consistent swinging strikes with his secondaries, Birdsong is going to be pretty useful, and he's worth a look in deeper leagues. 

Davidjohn Herz, SP, Nationals (27%) – Hertz keeps flashing such tantalizing upside. Back in mid-June, he had a 13-strikeout, zero-walk game, and then he had 10 strikeouts with zero walks Tuesday against the Mets, joining Tyler Glasnow, Bailey Ober, Zac Gallen, and Garrett Crochet as the only pitchers with at least 10 strikeouts and zero walks in multiple starts this season. That's hardly proof that Herz is a must-start Fantasy option – Dan Dunning also pulled off the trick on two separate occasions last season – but it's pretty good company to be in. Even if the rest of his starts have, for the most part, been pretty bad.  

Michael Mercado, SP, Phillies (3%) – Mercado wasn't overwhelming in his first MLB start, but he was pretty good, striking out four while walking two over five one-run innings. He generated four swinging strikes with his 95.3 mph four-seamer, and five more on his high-80s cutter, while limiting hard contact with all three of his pitches. Mercado is a bit of an older prospect, and one who hasn't really found much success in the minors outside of his first 47.1 innings this season, so I'd probably leave him for NL-only leagues right now.