Even if the Buccaneers weren't featured on the latest installment of HBO's Hard Knocks, Fantasy owners were going to gravitate toward their main offensive weapons this year. That's because there should be plenty of points in Tampa Bay in 2017.
But now that Fantasy owners can get an inside look at training camp for the Buccaneers, it should make guys like Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Doug Martin more popular on Draft Day. That is, if the players perform well when the cameras are on.
Through the first episode, it was a good showing for Evans, Jackson and mostly Winston until the end, when he appeared to struggle in practice. We didn't see much of Martin, but he's sure to be featured in the coming weeks, along with fellow running back Jacquizz Rodgers. Expect the same for tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, who are definitely Fantasy viable.
But is being on Hard Knocks a good thing for Fantasy production? Prior to this season, the show has featured nine teams going back to 2001 with Baltimore. The other teams were Dallas (2002 and 2008), Kansas City (2007), Cincinnati (2009 and 2013), the Jets (2010), Miami (2012), Atlanta (2014), Houston (2015) and the Rams (2016).
We looked at the past five teams to appear on Hard Knocks, and the Fantasy production has been suspect for the main offensive players on those teams. Granted, three of those teams (Miami, Atlanta and the Rams) were coming off losing seasons, and only two made the playoffs the year they were on the show (Cincinnati and Houston). But the numbers aren't great for most of their offensive stars.
There were only two quarterbacks to perform well, Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton. Reggie Bush was the best running back, but none of the Hard Knocks running backs in the past five years ran for 1,000 yards. There were five 1,000-yard receivers over that span, and three of them were elite: DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and A.J. Green. But the tight ends were awful, as the best options ended up as Jermaine Gresham and Anthony Fasano.
Let's take a look at the main offensive players to appear on Hard Knocks from the past five years.
2016 - Rams
Finished 4-12 and coming off a 7-9 campaign in 2015
What happened: The highlight of the show might have been Goff not knowing which direction the sun rises, as the season was a disaster for the Rams. In their first year in Los Angeles, coach Jeff Fisher was fired, and Goff, the No. 1 overall pick, failed to win a game after he opened the season as the backup behind Case Keenum. Gurley was also a Fantasy bust despite being hyped as a potential No. 1 overall pick. The lone bright spot was Britt, who had a career year.
2015 - Texans
Finished 9-7 and won the AFC South and coming off a 9-7 campaign in 2014
What happened: The main storylines of the show were the quarterback battle with Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, and Foster's health after he suffered a groin injury early in training camp. Oh, and plenty of J.J. Watt. Hoyer proved to be the better quarterback, but Foster was ruined by injuries. Blue struggled as the backup running back, but we did get a breakout campaign from Hopkins, who proved to be a star in his third season in the NFL.
2014 - Falcons
Finished 6-10 and coming off a 4-12 campaign in 2013
What happened: The 2014 season was the last one for coach Mike Smith, but the Falcons still got quality Fantasy production from their passing game. Ryan finished as a top-10 quarterback, Jones was a top-10 receiver and White was a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues. Devonta Freeman was a rookie in 2014, but the Falcons still relied heavily on Jackson in what was his last full season in the NFL. As you can see, he did not go out with a bang.
2013 - Bengals
Finished 11-5 and won the AFC North and coming off a 10-6 wild-card campaign in 2012
What happened: The Bengals had the best team from Hard Knocks over this five-year span, and they also had some standout Fantasy production. Dalton was actually a top-five quarterback, Bernard was a standout rookie and a top 20 running back, Green was a top-five receiver and Jones was a low-end starting option because of his touchdown production. Gresham and Tyler Eifert also combined for 85 catches, 903 yards and six touchdowns. Tampa Bay could mirror this team from a production standpoint.
2012 - Dolphins
Finished 7-9 and coming off a 6-10 campaign in 2011
What happened: The Dolphins had a lot going on this year, from Joe Philbin's first season as a head coach to Tannehill as a rookie quarterback. The highlight of the show was Chad Johnson, who was released in training camp after he was arrested for allegedly head-butting his newlywed wife. With Johnson gone, the Dolphins got a surprise season from Hartline, but Bush was their best player. He was also the best running back from Hard Knocks over this five-year period.
What to expect from the Buccaneers this year ...
Coming off a 9-7 campaign in 2016
What could happen: Winston was a top-10 quarterback last year, and should continue to improve with the best receiving corps of his young career thanks to Jackson and Howard joining Evans and Brate. Evans was the No. 2 Fantasy receiver last year, and he should remain a solid No. 1 option worth drafting in Round 1. Jackson loses some value as the No. 2 receiver in this offense, but he's a solid Fantasy reserve with a mid-round pick. The tight ends are only worth late-round picks, though Brate is slightly better given his expected role and experience. Martin will miss the first three games of the season due to a suspension, but he's worth drafting in Round 6 or 7 in most formats. And you can handcuff him with Rodgers with a late-round pick since he should start the first three games with Martin out.