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- Jamey will be updating his Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts next week, but in case your missed our position-by-position previews, here are his picks for running back.
August is here, and as you can imagine, we've talked about a lot of running backs by now. And there's more to come.
I've already covered several sleepers, breakouts and busts at running back in earlier versions of these topics, and here are some updates to the list as part of running back week on CBS Sports. But first, let's recap the players we already discussed.
The sleepers I already wrote about include Devontae Booker, Marlon Mack, Matt Breida, Kerryon Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Rex Burkhead and D'Onta Foreman. Of this group, the only one who concerns me is Foreman, who opened training camp on the PUP list after last year's Achilles injury.
For breakouts, I wrote about Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jamaal Williams, Jerick McKinnon, Rashaad Penny, Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones and Royce Freeman. And I love all of these players coming into 2018.
The busts include Dion Lewis, Lamar Miller, Marshawn Lynch, Devonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Sony Michel and Carlos Hyde. Miller's status has changed the most because Foreman might not be ready for Week 1, and he's no longer a bust. And I'm fine with Freeman since he's being drafted toward the end of Round 2 based on his current Average Draft Position.
You can read all about the earlier versions of sleepers here, breakouts here and busts here. Now, let's get to some new players to focus on as you prepare for your upcoming drafts.
Sleepers
Crowell was over-hyped last year, and he failed. Instead of being a breakout candidate with the Browns, Crowell was a bust, and he finished with just four games with double digits in Fantasy points in a non-PPR league, compared to 10 games with six points or less. This season, Crowell gets a fresh start with the Jets, and he gets a boost with Elijah McGuire (foot) going down in training camp for as long as six weeks. While Bilal Powell will still have a role, Crowell could again push for about 200 total touches, which he's done three years in a row.
With an ADP of 102 overall in Round 9, there's little risk and plenty of reward for a running back with that potential workload. He can easily be a flex option or low-end starter this season.
Chubb is expected to open the season as the No. 3 running back on the depth chart for the Browns, but he could ascend to the No. 1 spot sooner rather than later. While Duke Johnson will likely dominate playing time on passing downs and will technically be the No. 2 running back, Chubb could overtake Carlos Hyde for playing time at some point in the season.
Chubb is used to sharing touches from his days at Georgia with Sony Michel, and he's someone to stash on your bench for several weeks to see what develops. Chubb's ADP is No. 104 overall in Round 9, and he could be this year's Alvin Kamara as a team's No. 3 running back going into the season who becomes a Fantasy starting option by the end.
Early reports at the start of training camp for Green Bay have Jamaal Williams handling the bulk of rushing downs, and Montgomery will play on passing downs and in the hurry-up offense. Aaron Jones, who is suspended for two games and battling a hamstring injury, will likely back up Williams once he's active in Week 3. Montgomery's value is higher in PPR leagues, but he's being drafted in Round 10 at No. 114 overall.
Keep in mind that last year, Montgomery had 36 Fantasy points in a non-PPR league in his first two games, along with 18 catches in his first three outings. He's had trouble staying healthy the past two years, but maybe in a lesser role he can still be effective, especially in the passing game. He should surpass 50 catches if he can stay healthy for most of the season.
I'm not buying that Carson will be the best running back for the Seahawks this year. That should be Penny, once he's healthy. And just because coach Pete Carroll is glowing about Carson at the start of training camp, it doesn't mean Carson's ADP should rise dramatically. But still, you should find a place for Carson on your roster, especially because it looks like he's going to open the season as Seattle's starter.
Carson looked good as a rookie in 2017 before suffering a broken leg in Week 4 against the Colts, ending his season. In two games before that, he scored 19 combined Fantasy points in a non-PPR league, and he was Seattle's best running back last year. Should Penny's recovery lag or if he struggles, Carson could stay in a featured role, and he's a good lottery ticket to stash on your bench.
The Colts will likely use several running backs this season given Frank Reich's background as the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, and Indianapolis has a lot of unproven options and journeymen in the backfield. Mack should open the season as the starter, but he had just 114 total touches as a rookie. Wilkins and Nyheim Hines are rookies, and Hines looks destined for a role in the passing game. Wilkins will likely compete with Robert Turbin, Christine Michael and Josh Ferguson for touches, and Turbin has a four-game suspension to open the season.
Wilkins could be a steal with his Round 13 ADP at No. 155 overall, especially if he plays the "big back" role for the Colts. He's one of my favorite late-round fliers in all leagues this season.
Breakouts
Last year, from Week 2 on, I was practically begging the Ravens to use Collins more on our video shows, podcasts and in my columns. It was frustrating to see him limited because, most likely, a concern with his fumbles, but his workload eventually ramped up, allowing him to prove his worth. He closed the season with double digits in Fantasy points in a non-PPR league in five of his final seven outings, and he should build on that performance this year.
We'll have to see how Baltimore uses Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen, but Collins could finish the season as a top 10 running back in all leagues with the proper workload. And he's an amazing price at No. 46 overall in Round 4. I'm drafting Collins in Round 3 in non-PPR leagues, and he's a potential star heading into 2018.
Busts
It's might not be sexy to call Coleman a bust, but his ADP is just way too high at No. 55 overall in Round 5. That makes him the No. 23 running back off the board, and you can't go into the season with him as a starting option. Unless, of course, you're expecting Devonta Freeman to get hurt.
When Freeman misses time, Coleman is a star, and last year Freeman missed two games and most of a third contest with a concussion. Coleman had 46 Fantasy points in a non-PPR league over that span, which ended up being 35 percent of his total Fantasy points for the season.
If that's what you're hoping for is Coleman getting a heavy workload, then you need Freeman to get hurt. When Freeman was healthy, Coleman had seven games with 10 touches or less. I'll pass on him at his current ADP, and Round 7 is the soonest I'll consider Coleman in all leagues.
So what sleepers should you snatch in your Fantasy Football draft? And which huge running backs do you need to jump all over? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Alvin Kamara's huge breakout last season and find out.
