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The Buffalo Bills entered training camp with one of the worst receiving corps in football, and apparently they realized it. They hope acquiring Corey Coleman from the Cleveland Browns will change that. Coleman has struggled to stay healthy and catch the football his first two seasons in Cleveland, but at least one of those things can be forgiven due to the cast of quarterbacks he's played with.
What we're trying to figure out today is what this move means for Coleman, and the rest of the Bills. This is still a team without a starting quarterback, and it's a team I would expect will throw the ball at a below average rate. From that perspective, it's bad news for Coleman. But his competition for targets may actually make this a plus for his Fantasy value. Zay Jones is one of the few receivers with a worse catch rate than Coleman, and Jones has missed most of camp due to a knee injury. There's an opportunity for Coleman to move into the No. 2 receiver role in this offense. That's not an opportunity he had in Cleveland.
The current No. 1 receiver, Kelvin Benjamin provides a cautionary tale. Benjamin changed teams midseason last year and never seemed fully comfortable in Buffalo. It's a lot to ask of Coleman to show up this week and take the No. 2 job by the start of the season. As for Benjamin, I'm not changing his projection due to this move. But this does add another talented young receiver who could cut into Benjamin's target share if things click.
In the end, there's a good chance that the Bills top three pass catchers remain unchanged by this move. LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay and Benjamin dominate targets on a run-first team, and Coleman remains irrelevant in Fantasy. But this is a ding on Jones' sleeper appeal and provides more opportunity for Coleman to earn targets. Below are the updated expectations for the Browns.
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
PLAYER | EXPECTED FP | POS. RANK | EXPECTED PPR FP | POS. RANK |
LeSean McCoy | 209 | #11 | 263 | #10 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 123 | #38 | 184 | #45 |
Charles Clay | 85 | #12 | 141 | #13 |
Breaking down the touches
Brian Daboll is entering his first year as the Bills' offensive coordinator, but if you look at his history you might guess he was calling plays for the Bills from Tuscaloosa last fall. In three of his four years as a coordinator in the NFL, Daboll ran the ball as often as he threw it. That could be because of the quarterbacks he had on his roster, but he's likely starting the season with McCarron as his starter. Expect a run heavy attack.
I'd also expect 100-plus targets for Benjamin. The No. 1 receiver in Daboll's offense received 24 and 30 percent of the targets in his past two years. There isn't a lot of evidence that he valued running backs in the passing game, but I can't imagine McCoy's role is going to change much there. There aren't enough talented receivers to avoid the running backs in the passing game.
Bills touches | ||||||
Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD |
LeSean McCoy | 65% | 299 | 15% | 71 | 54 | 9 |
25% | 115 | 5% | 24 | 18 | 3 | |
Kelvin Benjamin | 0% | 0 | 23% | 108 | 61 | 6 |
Corey Coleman | 0% | 0 | 14% | 66 | 33 | 2 |
Zay Jones | 0% | 0 | 14% | 66 | 33 | 2 |
Charles Clay | 0% | 0 | 18% | 85 | 56 | 4 |
0% | 0 | 9% | 42 | 28 | 2 |
Of note:
- I don't know when it's going to end for McCoy, but history says it should be pretty soon. That doesn't mean you should avoid him on Draft Day, just don't pay full price on his expectations.
- I'm actually projecting a lot of improvement for Jones from his rookie season when he caught just 36 percent of his targets. If he doesn't improve, those targets are going to someone else, likely Coleman.
- Charles Clay has only played 16 games once in his career, so don't be surprised if O'Leary is showing up in midseason streamer articles again.
The Leftovers
There is not a ton of depth on this team that you'd actually be excited about. Sure, Jeremy Kerley could outwork the younger receivers and earn a place in the starting lineup, but would anyone even notice? If I had to pick anyone to get excited about deep down the depth chart, it would be the two rookies they just added at receiver, Ray-Ray McCloud and Austin Proehl. They could make some noise as a slot receiver later in the year, but mostly I'm looking at them as deep Dynasty stashes.
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