There's no more challenging issue to deal with this season than how to handle Todd Gurley. He possesses both league-winning upside and almost no floor at all. Information has been sparse and conflicting on his actual health and the Rams plan to manage his workload. I can't proclaim to have the right way to approach this. But I will push back on the idea that as long as you handcuff Gurley with Darrell Henderson you've alleviated any risk.
At their current ADPs that's just not true.
In July NFFC ADP, Gurley is being drafted 17th overall as the 10th running back off the board. Henderson is coming off the board at the end of the sixth round (71st) as the No. 30 running back. Using two of your first six picks to lock up the Rams backfield may sound like a good idea. It may even end up being a good idea. But it's far from a guarantee that you'll get one elite running back or that you're actually locking the Rams backfield up.
The first obvious threat to this plan is Malcolm Brown, who may just open the year as the true handcuff to Gurley. The Rams made the decision to match an offer to Brown in the offseason and he has experience in the offense. We saw how much Rashaad Penny and Ronald Jones struggled to acclimate to the NFL; there's no guarantee Henderson picks things up quicker.
But even if Henderson is clearly the No. 2 back in Week 1, another risk may just be that the Rams do a good job of managing Gurley's workload and he stays healthy all year. My current projections have Gurley at 256 touches on the season and Henderson at 163. That's a 16-game projection for both and it doesn't look great for their Fantasy value. Gurley would have scored 299 Fantasy points with the same efficiency he had last year, but that's not a fair expectation.
The Rams lost center John Sullivan and guard Rodger Saffold in the offseason and they don't have replacements that inspire confidence. It's hard to imagine their loss won't effect the running game, specifically its efficiency. It's also worth mentioning that left tackle Andre Whitworth is 37 years old. The expectation should be that this unit regresses from one of the best in the league to near league average. But a below average performance is certainly possible.
I project Gurley to score 227 PPR Fantasy points and finish as the No. 16 running back. Henderson projects as the No. 40 back with 153 points. While their upside may make you want to take them above those projections, you should have a clear understanding that drafting both doesn't eliminate your risk.
Busts 1.0 was based on the expert consensus rankings from Fantasy Pros, while this edition uses NFFC ADP in July to see who's being drafted too high. The five players below fit both categories:
Adam Thielen, WR, MIN ADP: 30
Sony Michel, RB, NE, ADP: 52
Eric Ebron, TE, DET, ADP: 85
Drew Brees, QB, NO, ADP: 94
Russell Wilson, QB, SEA, ADP: 94
New Guys
At first glance, Ingram looks like he got a big upgrade with the move to Baltimore mostly because he doesn't have to share with Alvin Kamara anymore. But he's also no longer in the Saints offense, which is going to hurt a little bit as well. My bigger concern is just how much the Ravens are going to chop up the rushing (and pass-catching) duties out of the backfield. My current expectation is that 30% of the rush attempts go to Lamar Jackson and another 30% go to some combination of Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon and Justice Hill. That only leaves 212 for Ingram, which is pretty close to his 16-game average in New Orleans the last five years. It's also not enough to justify a fourth-round price tag. Especially when you're talking about one of the oldest starting running backs in the league.
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There is certainly opportunity in Los Angeles, but I think it's more likely Williams goes backward in Fantasy production than forward. Williams scored 10 touchdowns on 66 targets last year and averaged just 41 receiving yards per game. With Hunter Henry back, I could see Williams losing a few red zone targets even if he picks up some of the downfield work Tyrell Williams left behind. In his first two years in the NFL, Mike Williams caught 54 of 89 targets for 759 yards. In 2019, I have him projected for 57-806-7 on 88 targets. That's a fine upside No. 3 receiver but it's not someone you should be drafting early in Round 5.
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Ryan was one of my biggest misses last year after two seasons in which I'd been pretty much spot on. What happened? The entire Falcons defense seemingly got injured in the first four games of the season and they couldn't stop anyone... so Ryan had to throw the ball more than 600 times. The defense is (mostly) healthy to start 2019, Devonta Freeman is back, and Dan Quinn is telling anyone who will listen that they're going to run the ball better in 2019. Additions along the offensive line should make that easier. I don't necessarily believe Ryan is going to be bad but I do believe he could lose 40-80 attempts which will keep him from threatening the best at his position. If I could get Ryan at the end of drafts as a low-end starter, that would be great, but I won't take him where he's being drafted.
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This is a difficult one that I've gone back and forth on, but ultimately I don't believe I can bet on Guice in 2019. Yes, he's healed from his hamstring injury, but that doesn't mean your concerns about injuries should disappear. Remember how much trouble Dalvin Cook had with his hamstrings last year? Maybe my bigger issue is the fact the team has both Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson and they've spoken openly about how cautious they'll be with Guice in 2019. I just don't have much interest in an injury risk on a bad team that doesn't have workhorse upside. I do still believe in Guice's talent and long-term prognosis. If he gets off to a slow start like I expect he'll be one of my top Dynasty buys.
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Sutton's ADP is about as low as I'd consider for a bust call, but it's still too high. The Broncos are going to be run-heavy with targets focused on tight ends and intermediate routes. Sutton is a deep-ball receiver who doesn't have a particularly developed route tree. The health of Emmanuel Sanders only makes it more difficult for Sutton to break out this season. I don't see enough volume for Sutton, especially considering his quarterback and track record so far. Joe Flacco did not attempt deep passes at a high rate last year (5.7 per game, 23rd in the NFL) and he was not accurate with those attempts. This is not a good pairing.
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