We finally had a full week of football so we can start focusing on actual games and not just beat writer speculation and coach speak. So much better, right? Kind of.
As much as I love watching football and parsing stats, film and box scores can be just as deceiving as quotes and reports. Especially in the preseason. So this week in Believe It or Not we'll focus mostly on what we saw in the past week's games.
Darwin Thompson and Mecole Hardman are real threats to opposing defenses, and Fantasy relevant.
It didn't take long for the Chiefs' speedy rookies to strike fear into the hearts of the AFC West. Thompson ran the ball five times for 22 yards and caught a 29-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. Hardman caught two passes for 31 yards including a 17-yard score in the first quarter that was as much jet sweep as forward pass. The No. 1 thing you noticed with both players is that they were moving a different speed than everyone else. It doesn't seem fair to give these weapons to Patrick Mahomes, and it's going to seem even less fair that they're available in the double-digit rounds of Fantasy drafts.
Verdict: Believe it. Mostly.
As far as the football implications go, I totally believe it. This type of depth in Kansas City makes it really difficult to imagine the offense taking a big step back. And their upside is enormous. In Fantasy, I'm sold on the idea that Thompson needs to be drafted as early as Round 10. He's still behind Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde, but Williams has missed a ton of camp and Hyde is just a guy. You may need to show patience with Thompson, but he'll be worth it.
I'm less certain with Hardman. Unless (until?) Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce or Sammy Watkins goes down it's hard to imagine Hardman sees more than a handful of touches a week. He's a great best ball pick in the teens but I don't expect him to have a redraft impact without a significant injury.
Dante Pettis may not have a starting job in San Francisco.
This was a combination of coachspeak and game action. Kyle Shanahan indicated Pettis needed the work as an explanation for why his presumed No. 1 receiver played into the second quarter of a preseason game that many key players sat out. Also, Pettis didn't have a catch and only saw one target. In the same game Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd had big performances. While Pettis was a favorite breakout candidate in July, he'll need to win a starting job first.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I can believe that Pettis doesn't have a path to No. 1 targets. That always seemed to be the case with George Kittle on the team. I can also believe that Samuel and Hurd maybe be pushing him. I've even lowered Pettis in my rankings a little bit. But I don't believe he's in significant danger of losing his starting role and I'll happily pounce if his ADP craters.
Latavius Murray is an absolute steal at his current ADP.
I've said this plenty, but it needs to be said again. Especially after Murray saw three targets on the team's opening preseason drive. Do I think Murray is going to be that involved in the passing game? Of course not. But I do expect a similar role to Mark Ingram's, which led us to drafting him in the fourth or fifth round. Somehow, Murray is available in the eighth. Take advantage of that.
Verdict: Believe it.
In 2017, Mark Ingram was the No. 6 running back in Fantasy Football. In 2018, he was No. 20 over the final 12 games after his suspension. Saints coach Sean Payton has said he expects a similar role for Alvin Kamara. Even if you think Ingram is more talented than Murray, there's no reason to rank the latter outside of the top 30. Don't forget about his upside either. If something were to happen to Alvin Kamara I'd view Murray as a top-12 back.
Chris Godwin can be more than a No. 2 receiver.
Godwin played every down with Jameis Winston, moved into the slot when the team went three-wide, and caught a touchdown pass. It's hard to have a better start than that. While Godwin is the consensus breakout candidate, we're all pretty much projecting him to be a No. 2 receiver in Fantasy, without much upside beyond that. Bruce Arians has said some things that made that view seem too pessimistic, including that Godwin could catch 100 balls. Mike Evans has said that they're competing to be the No. 1. An industry that's calling Godwin a breakout may still be underestimating him.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Not without an injury. I fully expect Evans will have a sizable lead in targets, yards and touchdowns this season, though Godwin's work in the slot could help him keep up in receptions. And don't get me wrong, Godwin could outperform his ADP by finishing as a high-end No. 2 receiver in PPR instead of a mid-range option. In fact, that's my expectation if he plays 16 games.
James Washington is staking his claim to the No. 2 job in Pittsburgh.
All camp long we've heard about how Donte Moncrief was the clear No. 2 option and within the last week we heard rookie Diontae Johnson was ahead of Washington. If this was all motivation for the second-year receiver it seemed to work. Washington started the preseason off with a bang, hauling in a 43-yard pass on the game's opening pass. He finished with four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Washington has more talent than Moncrief or Johnson and it looks like that's winning out.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Ben Roethlisberger didn't play in this game and his opinion matters as much as anyone's when it comes to the No. 2 role in this passing game. Moncrief has far more experience and has earned Roethlisberger's trust early in camp. That could change, but it's not going to change because of what Washington does with Joshua Dobbs. For now, Moncrief is the second receiver to target and Washington is a late-round flier.
