Welcome to the first in our 'Undercover Mock' series, where our analysts will surreptitiously go into mock drafts to draft with real people. Unlike our expert mock drafts, you won't see Patrick Mahomes falling to the fourth round here. We're trying to show you how to find real advantages drafting with real people.
Picking first through fourth is easy. Picking fifth is tough.
The elite tier of running backs is sure to make up the first four picks in pretty much every draft, making the choice at fifth overall kind of difficult. Do you take a safe receiver or a should-be-safe running back?
Take a look around the league and you'll see running backs dropping like flies in training camp. Especially in a non-PPR, I want as much stability in the running back position as I can get, even if it costs me a stud receiver. That's why I had no problem taking James Conner before the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Davante Adams. I couldn't say for sure I could land a stud workhorse running back in Round 2, but I knew a very good pass-catcher would be there for me.
Suffice to say, this line of thinking was put to the test. Yes, there were quality hands men available to me at 20th overall like Mike Evans, George Kittle, Amari Cooper, Zach Ertz, Keenan Allen and T.Y. Hilton. But one running back stood out -- Nick Chubb. I know there are some hand-wringers who think Kareem Hunt will somehow come back on the field in Week 10 and create a timeshare. But if Chubb keeps up his hyper-efficiency from last year when coach Freddie Kitchens was calling his number, it's hard to argue the Browns not continuing to ride him.
I also knew someone from those other positions would make it back to me in Round 3. I didn't know it would be just two of them -- Allen, Hilton, Evans and Ertz (and Patrick Mahomes and a handful of nice running backs) were gone. All that was left was Kittle and Cooper. Again choosing position scarcity, I went with Kittle in Round 3, which was a real nice perk for me since I've taken him in Round 2 in a bunch of analyst mocks over the past month.
But the decision to go Conner-Chubb-Kittle came with a price: Seven of the next 14 picks after Kittle were receivers. I missed out on all of them, including three suspect choices like Julian Edelman (30th overall), Robert Woods (38th overall) and A.J. Green (41st overall).
By the time I was up in Round 4, my queue looked like this:
- Chris Carson, RB, SEA
- Philip Lindsay, RB, DEN
- Mark Ingram, RB, BAL
- Evan Engram, TE, NYG
- Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
- Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
- Chris Godwin, WR, TB
- David Montgomery, RB, CHI
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF
- Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
Yikes. The top three names were all running backs! I knew I'd have to either force my hand and take a receiver or choose the best-available player and deal with the consequences.
My fourth-round decision was nudged by the fact that the Fantasy managers at Picks 1 through 4 had three receivers total between them. This receiver run I was in the middle of wasn't about to stop. So with a quick glance at my rankings and a cross-check of ADP, I figured my best chance to get two from Golladay, Kupp and Godwin meant choosing Golladay first. Conveniently, he was my highest-ranked receiver.
Sure enough, Godwin was still available at 53rd overall (Kupp went right after Golladay) and I had a decent wide receiver duo to go with my amazing running backs and stud tight end.
Things picked up from here. I knew I needed to add to my receiver stockpile with one of my next two picks or so but saw this glorious queue when I was up in Round 6:
- Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF
- Andrew Luck, QB, IND
- Dante Pettis, WR, SF
- Mike Williams, WR, LAC
- Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
- Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE
The pressure to take a receiver vanished. There was a pretty good shot that one of Anderson, Pettis or Williams could fall to me in Round 7. I felt the same way about the quarterbacks. That left only one name in the queue -- I chose Coleman to solidify my running back depth.
In Round 7, the good news was that Pettis was available. The bad news was that if I took him, he'd be my third 49ers player on staff. If this were the Saints, the Rams or even the Colts, I wouldn't complain. The Niners? I suppose beggars can't be choosers when chasing receiver depth. Pettis was locked in as my No. 3 wideout.
But the draft became a success in Round 8. Mayfield was still on the board and at the top of my rank list -- a perfect storm if there ever was one. However, before I picked I noticed that every single team picking after me in Round 8 and before me in Round 9 already had a quarterback. Unless one of those knuckleheads decided to take Mayfield as a backup, I liked my odds of getting him in Round 9.
So I took the high-percentage gamble and opted for Rams rookie runner Darrell Henderson in Round 8. Sure enough, no one wanted Mayfield as a backup, so I took him as my starter.
You guys already know how I feel about drafting a quarterback for value -- this is the strategy in action. I knew I had to wait for a passer simply because I needed to feed receivers to my roster. Not only did I pick up a top-six passer, but I did it at a point where it was an irresistible steal. You may not find Mayfield in Round 9 in your drafts, but I bet you will find someone at a better-than-expected value. That's why you wait on them.
In the double-digit rounds, my focus turned to high-upside breakouts and sleepers and I went a little too overboard with running backs. I couldn't help myself with the number of potential starters available. I even was responsible and picked up Jaylen Samuels to use in case Conner missed some playing time.
Lessons learned
- I don't regret taking Chubb over Evans or Kittle over Cooper. I think Chubb and Kittle will help my team win. Anyone who you feel similarly about should be drafted with confidence without worrying about the consequences.
- However, you have to figure out going into your draft just how much tight end means to you. If you don't dream of having a top-three tight end, you'll wait until Round 4 or later (maybe way later) to get one. I prefer to have a difference-maker at tight end if I can, even if it costs me at another position.
- I don't regret picking Golladay and then getting Godwin and Pettis -- that was making the best out of a tough situation by utilizing ADP. But I do think I could have done a better job choosing more receivers in general. Thing is, I couldn't resist Royce Freeman in Round 10, Kalen Ballage in Round 11 or Justin Jackson in Round 14. Would my team really be that much better if I had taken DeSean Jackson instead of Freeman or John Brown instead of Jackson? I'd rather begin the season with these lotto-ticket running backs on the squad.
- If you think my mock stunk because I didn't take a receiver early, sign yourself up for drafting one before Round 3 ends no matter what. I'm not saying that's a bad idea -- in PPR it's pretty obvious. Just commit to it.
- Paying attention to Fantasy managers picking near you at the end of rounds is something I always preach, but pay attention to ADP, too. It'll help you manufacture a better roster when you're judging which players have the best chance to make it back to you.
- Wait on quarterback.
Interesting picks
- 1.07 - Melvin Gordon
- 1.11 - Todd Gurley
- 2.06 - Odell Beckham
- 2.12 - Patrick Mahomes
- 3.09 - Damien Williams
- 4.01 - Kerryon Johnson (what a steal!)
- 4.12 - Phillip Lindsay
- 5.07 - Evan Engram (great value)
- 5.08 - Sammy Watkins (gross value)
- 8.03 - Delanie Walker (too soon)
- 8.07 - Kareem Hunt (way too soon)
- 8.09 - Golden Tate (WAYYYYY TOO SOON)
- 8.12 - Bears DST (seriously)
Round 1 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
1 | Team 1 | Ezekiel Elliott |
2 | Team 2 | Saquon Barkley |
3 | Team 3 | Alvin Kamara |
4 | Team 4 | Christian McCaffrey |
5 | Dave Richard | James Conner |
6 | Team 6 | Le'Veon Bell |
7 | Team 7 | Melvin Gordon |
8 | Team 8 | DeAndre Hopkins |
9 | Team 9 | David Johnson |
10 | Team 10 | Davante Adams |
11 | Team 11 | Todd Gurley II |
12 | Team 12 | Michael Thomas |
Round 2 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
13 | Team 12 | Julio Jones |
14 | Team 11 | Joe Mixon |
15 | Team 10 | Tyreek Hill |
16 | Team 9 | JuJu Smith-Schuster |
17 | Team 8 | Travis Kelce |
18 | Team 7 | Odell Beckham Jr. |
19 | Team 6 | Antonio Brown |
20 | Dave Richard | Nick Chubb |
21 | Team 4 | Keenan Allen |
22 | Team 3 | Dalvin Cook |
23 | Team 2 | T.Y. Hilton |
24 | Team 1 | Patrick Mahomes |
Round 3 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
25 | Team 1 | Mike Evans |
26 | Team 2 | Josh Jacobs |
27 | Team 3 | Leonard Fournette |
28 | Team 4 | Zach Ertz |
29 | Dave Richard | George Kittle |
30 | Team 6 | Julian Edelman |
31 | Team 7 | Amari Cooper |
32 | Team 8 | Devonta Freeman |
33 | Team 9 | Damien Williams |
34 | Team 10 | Adam Thielen |
35 | Team 11 | Marlon Mack |
36 | Team 12 | Derrick Henry |
Round 4 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
37 | Team 12 | Kerryon Johnson |
38 | Team 11 | Robert Woods |
39 | Team 10 | Aaron Jones |
40 | Team 9 | Brandin Cooks |
41 | Team 8 | A.J. Green |
42 | Team 7 | Stefon Diggs |
43 | Team 6 | Sony Michel |
44 | Dave Richard | Kenny Golladay |
45 | Team 4 | Cooper Kupp |
46 | Team 3 | Deshaun Watson |
47 | Team 2 | Chris Carson |
48 | Team 1 | Phillip Lindsay |
Round 5 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
49 | Team 1 | Mark Ingram II |
50 | Team 2 | Alshon Jeffery |
51 | Team 3 | Tyler Lockett |
52 | Team 4 | James White |
53 | Dave Richard | Chris Godwin |
54 | Team 6 | Aaron Rodgers |
55 | Team 7 | Evan Engram |
56 | Team 8 | Sammy Watkins |
57 | Team 9 | Calvin Ridley |
58 | Team 10 | Kenyan Drake |
59 | Team 11 | Jarvis Landry |
60 | Team 12 | DJ Moore |
Round 6 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
61 | Team 12 | David Montgomery |
62 | Team 11 | Hunter Henry |
63 | Team 10 | Tarik Cohen |
64 | Team 9 | O.J. Howard |
65 | Team 8 | Derrius Guice |
66 | Team 7 | Miles Sanders |
67 | Team 6 | Tyler Boyd |
68 | Dave Richard | Tevin Coleman |
69 | Team 4 | Allen Robinson |
70 | Team 3 | Mike Williams |
71 | Team 2 | Andrew Luck |
72 | Team 1 | Robby Anderson |
Round 7 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
73 | Team 1 | Eric Ebron |
74 | Team 2 | Rashaad Penny |
75 | Team 3 | Sterling Shepard |
76 | Team 4 | Matt Ryan |
77 | Dave Richard | Dante Pettis |
78 | Team 6 | Jared Cook |
79 | Team 7 | Lamar Miller |
80 | Team 8 | LeSean McCoy |
81 | Team 9 | Austin Ekeler |
82 | Team 10 | Cam Newton |
83 | Team 11 | Will Fuller V |
84 | Team 12 | Marvin Jones Jr. |
Round 8 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
85 | Team 12 | Dede Westbrook |
86 | Team 11 | Drew Brees |
87 | Team 10 | Delanie Walker |
88 | Team 9 | Latavius Murray |
89 | Team 8 | Christian Kirk |
90 | Team 7 | Corey Davis |
91 | Team 6 | Kareem Hunt |
92 | Dave Richard | Darrell Henderson |
93 | Team 4 | Golden Tate |
94 | Team 3 | Peyton Barber |
95 | Team 2 | David Njoku |
96 | Team 1 | Bears D/ST |
Round 9 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
97 | Team 1 | Nyheim Hines |
98 | Team 2 | Larry Fitzgerald |
99 | Team 3 | Ronald Jones |
100 | Team 4 | Jordan Howard |
101 | Dave Richard | Baker Mayfield |
102 | Team 6 | Jerick McKinnon |
103 | Team 7 | Carson Wentz |
104 | Team 8 | Ben Roethlisberger |
105 | Team 9 | Damien Harris |
106 | Team 10 | Keke Coutee |
107 | Team 11 | Emmanuel Sanders |
108 | Team 12 | Vance McDonald |
Round 10 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
109 | Team 12 | Dak Prescott |
110 | Team 11 | Greg Olsen |
111 | Team 10 | Jared Goff |
112 | Team 9 | Kyler Murray |
113 | Team 8 | Courtland Sutton |
114 | Team 7 | N'Keal Harry |
115 | Team 6 | Curtis Samuel |
116 | Dave Richard | Royce Freeman |
117 | Team 4 | Michael Gallup |
118 | Team 3 | DeSean Jackson |
119 | Team 2 | Geronimo Allison |
120 | Team 1 | Donte Moncrief |
Round 11 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
121 | Team 1 | Trey Burton |
122 | Team 2 | Russell Wilson |
123 | Team 3 | Harrison Butker |
124 | Team 4 | D'Onta Foreman |
125 | Dave Richard | Kalen Ballage |
126 | Team 6 | Carlos Hyde |
127 | Team 7 | Matt Breida |
128 | Team 8 | Jaguars D/ST |
129 | Team 9 | Devin Funchess |
130 | Team 10 | Tom Brady |
131 | Team 11 | Philip Rivers |
132 | Team 12 | Rams D/ST |
Round 12 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
133 | Team 12 | James Washington |
134 | Team 11 | Broncos D/ST |
135 | Team 10 | Bills D/ST |
136 | Team 9 | Lamar Jackson |
137 | Team 8 | DaeSean Hamilton |
138 | Team 7 | Vikings D/ST |
139 | Team 6 | Tyrell Williams |
140 | Dave Richard | Anthony Miller |
141 | Team 4 | Saints D/ST |
142 | Team 3 | Mark Andrews |
143 | Team 2 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
144 | Team 1 | Jamison Crowder |
Round 13 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
145 | Team 1 | Adam Humphries |
146 | Team 2 | Chargers D/ST |
147 | Team 3 | DK Metcalf |
148 | Team 4 | Marquise Brown |
149 | Dave Richard | Jaylen Samuels |
150 | Team 6 | Patriots D/ST |
151 | Team 7 | Greg Zuerlein |
152 | Team 8 | Jack Doyle |
153 | Team 9 | Giovani Bernard |
154 | Team 10 | Justin Tucker |
155 | Team 11 | Dion Lewis |
156 | Team 12 | Austin Hooper |
Round 14 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
157 | Team 12 | Stephen Gostkowski |
158 | Team 11 | Wil Lutz |
159 | Team 10 | Parris Campbell |
160 | Team 9 | Duke Johnson Jr. |
161 | Team 8 | Ka'imi Fairbairn |
162 | Team 7 | Albert Wilson |
163 | Team 6 | Robbie Gould |
164 | Dave Richard | Justin Jackson |
165 | Team 4 | Mike Badgley |
166 | Team 3 | Colts D/ST |
167 | Team 2 | Mitchell Trubisky |
168 | Team 1 | Adam Vinatieri |
Round 15 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
169 | Team 1 | Brett Maher |
170 | Team 2 | Kenny Stills |
171 | Team 3 | Paul Richardson |
172 | Team 4 | Mohamed Sanu |
173 | Dave Richard | Cowboys D/ST |
174 | Team 6 | DJ Chark |
175 | Team 7 | Marqise Lee |
176 | Team 8 | Deebo Samuel |
177 | Team 9 | Texans D/ST |
178 | Team 10 | Kyle Rudolph |
179 | Team 11 | Jordan Reed |
180 | Team 12 | Jameis Winston |
Round 16 | ||
Pick | Team | Player |
181 | Team 12 | Jamaal Williams |
182 | Team 11 | Jalen Richard |
183 | Team 10 | Jimmy Graham |
184 | Team 9 | Matt Prater |
185 | Team 8 | Chris Herndon |
186 | Team 7 | Andy Isabella |
187 | Team 6 | Tre'Quan Smith |
188 | Dave Richard | Josh Lambo |
189 | Team 4 | Hakeem Butler |
190 | Team 3 | A.J. Brown |
191 | Team 2 | Jake Elliott |
192 | Team 1 | Kirk Cousins |