You'll have no problem finding breakout candidates at tight end for the 2020 NFL season. Ask 10 different Fantasy analysts, and you might get 10 different tight ends with the potential to break out. Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Mike Gesicki ... the list goes on and on. So, this is the year tight end finally stops being a disaster for Fantasy, right?
I've heard that before. I'm sure you have, too.
It seems like every year, we talk ourselves into this year finally being the year tight end stops being an anchor on our lineups, and every year, there are two or three standouts, maybe two more guys you feel OK starting, and then a large pile of the same touchdown-or-bust scrubs as always.
And yet ... this year feels different, doesn't it? Looking at CBS Fantasy ADP right now, I can go 18 deep before I run out of tight ends I could see starting in Week 1 — and that doesn't even include Blake Jarwin, Jace Sternberger or Irv Smith, young tight ends with the potential to take a big step forward in 2020. So, this is the year tight end finally stops being a disaster for Fantasy, right?
Only time will tell, but I've gone back and looked through breakout picks from the Fantasy Football Today team over the past three years to try to see where we hit, and more importantly, where we missed and why. Fair warning, the lists aren't exactly pretty. That's probably why tight end is still a disaster for Fantasy, right?
Let's start with the players who hit, so we can get some optimism in:
The True Breakouts
Mark Andrews, 2019
George Kittle, 2018
Zach Ertz, 2017
This is the dream scenario for a young tight end. Three elite prospects who showed flashes the year before putting it all together for a huge full-season breakout. If we get a few guys to join the top tier along with these guys, that would go a long way toward making the tight end position finally stand out.
Andrews showed immediate rapport with Lamar Jackson when he took over, and that carried over to a huge season; kinda sounds like Mike Gesicki with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jonnu Smith with Ryan Tannehill, or Noah Fant with Drew Lock, no?
Kittle showed his big-play ability in 2017, including with his first career 100-yard game that included a 44-yard catch in Week 17; Tyler Higbee looks like the obvious analogy here coming off his historic close to the 2019 season, though Fant probably comes closest in terms of the demonstrated big-play ability Kittle showed.
Ertz didn't take as significant a step forward overall as the other two, but he joined the elite ranks at tight end thanks to a breakout season from Carson Wentz that saw Ertz haul in a career-best eight touchdowns in 14 games; Evan Engram is playing with a breakout candidate at quarterback in Daniel Jones, as are Fant and Hockenson. Gesicki and Hunter Henry have highly-regarded rookies who could elevate the offense if they get the chance and hit the ground running.
The Other "Breakout"
Jack Doyle, 2017
Yep, he's the only other one you can really call a hit thanks to his 80-catch, 690-yard, four-touchdown performances in 2017. Such are the meager choices at tight end. In Doyle's case, he showed some flashes of his own in 2016, but his breakout was ultimately tied directly to volume; Doyle earned 108 targets in 15 games, as the Colts' receiving options besides T.Y. Hilton busted and he had to serve as Jacoby Brissett's security blanket. When looking at tight ends who could see a significant target share for one reason or another, Hayden Hurst really stands out. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are obviously elite options, but this is a Falcons offense that has routinely given 100-plus targets to the tight end position. If Hurst can take on Austin Hooper's role, he'll be a star. You can also add Higbee, Hockenson, Gesicki, Sternberger, and Herndon to the list of potential breakouts who could see a significant target share.
The Near-Hits
Evan Engram, 2018/2019
Hunter Henry, 2019
O.J. Howard, 2018
On a per-game basis, each of these three lived up to expectations, more or less. Howard was on pace for 54 catches, 904 yards and eight touchdowns; Henry was on pace for 73 catches, 868 yards, and seven touchdowns; Engram was on an 840-yard pace in 2018 and a 934-yard pace in 2019.
Obviously, injuries don't really offer many teachable moments. But it's a reminder that Engram and Henry are breakout candidates in their own right, and all it would take is them staying healthy. And Will Dissly showed that kind of potential in his six games last season before an Achilles injury, if you're looking for a really deep target.
The Misses
And now, let's turn our attention to where we went astray to see what we can learn:
OJ Howard, 2019
Why did we like him? Elite talent with huge opportunity.
What went wrong? Didn't fit with new coach. We ignored Bruce Arians' history of eschewing the tight end position and just assumed Howard's immense skills would help him serve as the No. 3 option. Not so much.
Who could fit the mold for 2020? Mike Gesicki, for one. He's got all the physical tools, and the Dolphins more often used him as a slot receiver in 2019 than an in-line tight end, so the opportunity is obvious. Unless new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey doesn't view him in the same way. After all, for all of Gesicki's physical gifts, the production has been lacking pretty much going back to college. Maybe Gailey doesn't see much reason to feature him?
Trey Burton, 2018
Why did we like him? Backup who was finally freed.
What went wrong? He just wasn't that good. It's not much more complicated than that. Burton showed flashes in his years as Ertz's backup, but really wasn't all that impressive — he averaged 6.3 yards per target and 9.6 yards per catch in a backup role.
Who could fit the mold for 2020? Well, I suppose we could start with Dallas Goedert, who some think might be ready to overtake Ertz in the pecking order. In fairness, he's been quite a bit more productive in that role than Burton ever was, but he's hardly shined — 7.2 yards per reception, 10.3 yards per catch, with nine touchdowns on 131 targets over two years the biggest plus in his column. Ertz is still the better player in my eyes, so I'm not sure that opportunity is going to be there for Goedert; he saw an expanded role largely because the Eagles were so short on reliable pass-catchers.
The best analogy here, of course, is actually Hayden Hurst. Hurst is a former first-rounder who struggled to stay healthy as a rookie before being passed in the hierarchy by Andrews. He's certainly shown more than Burton did in his time as a backup, and the fact that the Falcons went out and traded for him instead of re-signing Hooper is a point in his favor. On the other hand, he's a 27-year-old with 43 catches and three touchdowns to his name. Maybe that former first-round pick label doesn't matter at this point?
David Njoku, 2018
Eric Ebron, 2017
Why did we like him? Bet on an elite prospect figuring it out.
What went wrong? They weren't worth the hype. Njoku remains an elite athlete, but the production didn't really match up in college or as a rookie, while Ebron simply never put it together. Even in 2018, his "breakout" season, Ebron averaged 6.8 yards per target and mostly relied on an outlier touchdown rate. It's actually too early to say whether Njoku was overhyped, given that his issue in 2018 wasn't exactly production-related, but the talent wasn't enough to get him on the field, either.
Who could fit the mold for 2020? Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, Gesicki, Sternberger … to a certain extent, all could apply. In a perfect world, draft pedigree would line up perfectly with Fantasy production, but tight ends aren't just drafted for their ability to be target hogs in the passing game, which complicates the expectations. Any one of these guys could take that leap, but history suggests most of them won't.
Vance McDonald, 2019
Why did we like him? Expected target increase.
What went wrong? The targets never came. Despite Jesse James' departure, McDonald was still mostly a non-factor. Maybe things could have been different if Ben Roethlisberger never got hurt, but the fact is, it wasn't.
Who could fit the mold for 2020? Hayden Hurst, Jack Doyle, Blake Jarwin, Jace Sternberger Here's a good reminder that just because we think a player deserves a bigger role, it doesn't mean the coaching staff views it the same way. We're assuming Doyle, Jarwin, and Sternberger will see larger roles with the departures their teams had, but not everyone is fit for a larger role.
Cameron Brate, 2017
Why did we like him? Bet too much on touchdowns.
What went wrong: Was never a focal point. Even when Brate was drawing red-zone looks from Jameis Winston in his eight-touchdown 2016, he was never really one of his top targets; Brate was third on the Bucs in targets that year before they added DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard the following offseason.
Who could fit the mold for 2020? There aren't really any good fits here. Thankfully, nobody is betting on Jared Cook (nine) and Darren Fells (seven) to repeat their touchdown production.
