The Eagles took a huge step forward last season, with Jalen Hurts playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. It's fair to expect some regression on both sides of the ball, but it would be a legitimate shock if this wasn't once again one of the best teams in the NFL.
2022 Review
Record: 14-3 (1)
PPG: 28.1 (3)
YPG: 389.1 (3)
Pass YPG: 241.5 (9)
Rush YPG: 147.6 (5)
PAPG: 31.5 (23)
RAPG: 32.0 (3)
2022 Fantasy finishes
QB: Jalen Hurts QB2
RB: Miles Sanders* RB10, Kenneth Gainwell RB53
WR: A.J. Brown WR4, DeVonta Smith WR10
TE: Dallas Goedert TE10
*No longer with team
Number to know: 31.6%
That's how often the Eagles passed the ball inside of the opponent's 10-yard line last season, the lowest mark in the league. You surely know all about how devastating the Eagles rushing offense was near the goal line, so this makes sense. This was one of just three teams to throw the ball less than 40% of the time in the Green Zone, and the Eagles were six percentage points lower than the next most run-heavy team -- and it's actually even more extreme than that, since five of their 31 pass plays actually ended with scrambles.
I point this out to show that a repeat of their 32 rushing touchdowns from last season probably isn't happening again, though that may not necessarily be a terrible thing for Hurts, who could turn some of those rushing scores into passing touchdowns. For as good as he was last season, Hurts' 4.8% touchdown rate was pretty pedestrian. There could be room for more production from the pass-catchers here, especially with some ambiguity in the backfield.
2023 Offseason
Draft picks
1. (9) Jalen Carter, DL
1. (30) Nolan Smith, OLB
3. (65) Tyler Steen, OL
3. (66) Sydney Brown, DB
4. (105) Kelee Ringo, DB
6. (188) Tanner McKee, QB
7. (249) Moro Ojomo, DE
Additions
QB Marcus Mariota, RB D'Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, S Terrell Edmunds
Key departures
DL Javon Hargrave, DE Robert Quinn, OL Andre Dillard, OL Isaac Seumalo, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, LB T.J. Edwards, RB Miles Sanders, S Marcus Epps, LB Kyzir White, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Zach Pascal
Available opportunity
259 RB carries, 26 RB targets, 19 WR targets, 0 TE targets
Rankings and Projections
| Award |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 37 | 33 | 33 | 36 |
| Rashaad Penny | 40 | 37 | 38 | 45 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 45 | 44 | NR | 44 |
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Chris Towers' projections
| QB | Jalen Hurts | PA: 548, YD: 4110, TD: 25, INT: 11; RUSH -- ATT: 153, YD: 766, TD: 7 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | CAR: 128, YD: 562, TD: 5; TAR: 55, REC: 42, YD: 338, TD: 2 |
| RB | Rashaad Penny | CAR: 128, YD: 600, TD: 5; TAR: 11, REC: 9, YD: 35, TD: 0 |
| RB | Kenneth Gainwell | CAR:102, YD: 439, TD: 4; TAR: 27, REC: 21, YD: 140, TD: 1 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | TAR: 154, REC: 95, YD: 1380, TD: 9 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | TAR: 143, REC: 94, YD: 1129, TD: 7 |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | TAR: 110, REC: 77, YD: 959, TD: 5 |
Biggest question
How does the running game get split up?
The passing game split is very easy to figure out, but I'm really not sure how to project the Eagles backfield. Both D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny have shown huge potential, but both have also struggled to stay healthy as full-time starters. Swift and Penny could both thrive in this offense, but it could be a frustrating split backfield all season. I'd like to have either of them (or both!) on my bench, but I wouldn't want to be relying on them to start in Week 1, especially with reports out of camp indicating that Gainwell might be the lead back here.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
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There really isn't much question as to whether Penny is a good player. Since being taken 27th overall in 2018 (itself a sign of his talent level), only Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have averaged more yards per carry than Penny's 5.7 with a minimum of 300 attempts in that time. Of course, you know the issue here -- Penny has just 337 carries in five seasons for a reason. He's had a ton of trouble staying healthy, with the most recent big blow coming when he broke his fibula after just five games last season. It's more than fair to wonder if Penny can stay healthy at this point, but if he ends up being the lead rusher here, there's also plenty of room for a ton of profit with an ADP outside of the top 100. He has the size to be a goal-line back and the big-play ability to score from anywhere, and that skill set is worth betting on at a severely discounted price -- even if that discount is for a good reason.
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One of the tough things about a team that is as concentrated as this one is there really isn't much room for breakouts to actually happen. In this case, I mostly expect Goedert to be as good as he was last season, but a breakout season could still happen with a bit better touchdown luck. He scored just three times on 55 catches last season, but if the Eagles throw a bit more near the end zone (and he stays healthy after missing five games), it's not out of the question Goedert could push for eight-plus scores. Add in what should be a 1,000-yard pace, he could challenge for the No. 2 spot at tight end, and there's room for even more growth there if either Smith or Brown misses significant time and he sees a bump in targets.
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This one is more about price, as Swift is coming off the board at 67.7 in ADP, more than 50 spots ahead of Penny, and even more ahead of Gainwell. Swift's injury history isn't quite as concerning as Penny's, but he also isn't nearly the same kind of runner Penny is -- Swift has rated out as a rather pedestrian rusher based on stats like the NFL's NextGenStats Rush Yards Over Expected, while Penny led the league on a per-attempt basis in 2021, when he qualified for the leaderboard. Swift's pass-catching skills are where he really stands out, and while we may see the Eagles draw up a few more targets to him than they were giving to their backs a year ago, it probably isn't going to be a big part of their game with Hurts at QB (and Marcus Mariota now backing him up). Swift might end up the lead back here, and that could get him to double-digit touchdowns, but there's no guarantee there. And, if he's even splitting carries with Penny, he probably won't have enough targets to make up for that. Of he's splitting passing game work with Gainwell, he might barely be worth a bench spot.
