There are some players that I am just not that into.
It's not their fault as much as it is mine. It's not that these players are bad. It's just that I don't believe in them when other people are.
Some of the players are just being taken at too high. Most of those players are quarterbacks. If you want my quarterback strategy, you know where to go.
But other players, even those with a fair ADP, I just get squeamish over and don't want to draft.
This year's Don't Wanna Draft list isn't particularly long, which might be a bad thing. It's not like every player in every round comes through -- I might just be too bullish on too many players.
Which is all the more reason to seriously consider the players I am bearish on.
Players are listed in order by their CBS Sports Fantasy PPR Average Draft Position as of August 30.
A word on Quarterbacks
We're not seeing quarterbacks seep back into Round 1 -- even the most basic of drafters have learned at least that much. But there are still plenty of folks who are taking quarterbacks too soon in one-QB formats. Here are some examples based on ADP:
Josh Allen, 22.2
Jalen Hurts 23.6
Patrick Mahomes 27.2
Lamar Jackson 34.2
Joe Burrow 59.3
Jordan Love 60.1
Dak Prescott 65.6
Brock Purdy 88.5
I would be happy with any of these players on my team, just not at these spots. Quarterbacks not listed above who I am closer to in-line with the ADP on are C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels.
My advice remains: You have to feel like you are stealing your quarterback from the rest of your league when you draft them. Taking Allen or Hurts in Round 2 feels like you're getting robbed, not like you're robbing your league. It's just senseless to reach for a quarterback when you know you'll find one at a good value later on, especially if it means passing on a potential stud at another position who an enemy manager can win with.
Players I Don't Wanna Draft
These are players I have ranked lower than their current ADP on purpose. I don't want them on my Fantasy team unless they fall into my lap. Figuratively.
Why might he bust? Over 94 routes with Anthony Richardson last year, Pittman saw 22 targets, which is actually a cool 23.4% target share. But that's chump change compared to the ridiculous 28.5% target share he had in 2023 with Gardner Minshew. Furthermore, the expectation is that the Colts will be more run-focused with Richardson back and Jonathan Taylor healthy. And if that's not bad enough, the eventual return of Josh Downs and the addition of rookie Adonai Mitchell should further dilute Pittman's target share. His own lack of efficiency (2.04 yards per route run was 44th among qualifying wideouts) and lack of scoring opportunities (six or fewer touchdowns in each of four seasons) threaten his chances of being anywhere near as productive as he was last season.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 51.5
I'd take him: around 65th overall in PPR, around 70th overall in non-PPR
Why might he bust? Before he erupted in the playoffs last year, Jones totaled 483 yards and three touchdowns on 102 touches over eight games. He's missed playing time in three of his past four seasons and will turn 30 this season. Minnesota has to recognize this issue and may put fellow running back Ty Chandler on the field for more snaps than expected. And while you could make the case that the Vikings may try to run the ball more this year now that Sam Darnold is their quarterback, the truth is that the Vikings have been among the most pass-heavy offenses in football since Kevin O'Connell became their head coach. As such, they've failed to produce a RB with a 15-plus PPR point average in each of O'Connell's two seasons (Alexander Mattison averaged 8.3 PPR per game in 2023). Worse yet, Jones' ADP has gone up over 10 spots since the offseason, making him even more expensive!
CBS Fantasy ADP: 57.1
I'd take him: after 70th overall
Why might he bust? It's a red flag that he's on his third team in as many years, but the larger issue is that he's never delivered strong numbers consistently throughout a season. I also think he'll share with two other backs in Chicago, closing the door on the number of games he'll have 15 or more touches in. Not only did the Bears get a lot of receiving help for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but Williams himself scored on 19 of 33 rush attempts inside the 10, 16 of 22 rush attempts inside the 5, and 9 of 11 rush attempts at the one-yard line last season at Southern Cal. Swift will deal with someone stealing touches and scores from him every week.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 61.8
I'd take him: after 75th overall
Why might he bust? Stevenson averaged 12.1 PPR points per game as well as 3.2 receptions per game, meaning about 25% of his per-game Fantasy points came solely on receptions. The Patriots added pass-catching running back Antonio Gibson this offseason, potentially taking Stevenson off the field in obvious passing situations. New England also did not solve its offensive line issues from last year which contributed to Stevenson's inefficiency (one carry last year went for more than 15 yards). Stevenson could very well be tied to game script -- if the Patriots are in close games, he might deliver nice numbers, but if not, he'll stink. They've got a win over/under of 4.5, the lowest in the league. Lastly, Stevenson has a horrible track record in division games -- one touchdown in 13 tries. Maybe he'll be decent, but I'd be surprised if he averaged over 14 PPR points per game.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 67.0
I'd take him: after 75th overall
Why might he bust? When hasn't he? In 44 career games, Pitts has six touchdowns, eight games with 70 or more yards and nine games with five or more receptions. I know Kirk Cousins should throw him some prettier balls than past Falcons quarterbacks, but it took seeing Pitts practice in person to really leave me feeling shaken. I saw Pitts move around with a little more fluidity than he did last year, but he still was winning with his size and catching passes with his body and not running away from people. I noted Cousins threw three different teammates more targets in two days of joint practices with the Dolphins than he threw to Pitts. And I heard Cousins say he's encouraging Pitts to stop using his body to catch passes and to start running as fast as he possibly can. Those are things Pitts should have been doing by his fourth season in the NFL. I know he has outstanding potential but we've rarely seen it and I struggle to believe we'll see it now.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 74.4
I'd take him: after 85th overall
Players I Don't Wanna Draft based on ADP
These are players I have ranked a little lower than their current ADP, which means I am probably not going to draft many/any of these guys.
Why might he bust? Only one running back since Josh Allen arrived in Buffalo scored more than six touchdowns in a season. That's part of the track record Bills running backs have had with Allen. Cook is one who did succeed after a playcaller change last year, including an Allen-era best 1,567 total yards, but much of that came soon after the OC change and before his final five games (playoffs included) when he floundered: 8.6 PPR points per game and zero touchdowns despite 332 total yards on 97 total touches. Three of his four late-year touchdowns were on catches, not carries. Maybe that's a good thing, but it's risky to count on a running back for his receiving scores. I'm going to try to draft Cook at a fair value but I'm afraid someone else in every draft will take him about 10 picks before then.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 19.7
I'd take him: around 25th overall
Why might he bust? It's sad to think about, but Kelce can't be great forever. No one can. He'll be 35 this season and is coming off a postseason where he was an absolute monster for four games, but a total disappointment in most of the nine games prior. The Chiefs, to their credit, made splashes at receiver this offseason with the idea that they can spread the ball around and not have to ride their hero tight end every week. I'll never suggest Kelce is a total bust, but I wouldn't be surprised if his target volume dipped and his Fantasy production was more in line with several other tight ends.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 25.5
I'd take him: around 35th overall
Why might he bust? Achane's biggest numbers came in blowouts last season, and he couldn't stay on the field consistently. That's not a reference to his health as much as it is a reference to his playing time -- Dolphins running backs will always share touches, that's a Mike McDaniel thing. I watched him practice and he did work in the passing game for Miami, but Raheem Mostert has also had a good camp and has been spotted working with the starters a bunch, including in the two-minute offense. Plus, rookie Jaylen Wright not only looks the part of a quality back but ran like it in Miami's first preseason game. Bottom line: Achane has the kind of upside you dream about, but if you draft him solely for it and he underwhelms, you'll pay for it. I prefer safer running backs in Round 2 than Achane.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 26.4
I'd take him: around 35th overall
Why might he bust? How is he supposed to take the next step when Tyreek Hill gets more work than him? Or with a terrific run scheme anchored by three capable backs? Or with a quarterback who hasn't consistently been one of the best at his position? I don't like how Waddle had zero games with 15 or more PPR points last year anytime Hill and Achane played. I don't like how Waddle has had just six games with 15 or more PPR points in his past 22 regular-season games. And I don't like that his role seems to flutter every year as evidenced by his ADOT bouncing anywhere from 7.1 to 12.6. Don't get me started on how he missed two weeks of practice with an injury. This is another case of an outstanding talent caught in a scenario that's not ideal for Fantasy managers.
CBS offseason ADP: 47.0
I'd take him: closer to 55th overall
Why might he bust? In the eight games when a Ravens running back had 13 or more PPR points last year, Flowers exceeded 14 PPR points just twice, and one of them was when Justice Hill caught a touchdown among a career-high five receptions. And when Flowers had his breakout five-game stretch to end 2023, Mark Andrews was sidelined. In fact, Andrews was sidelined for all but two of Flowers' games with 13 or more PPR points last season. Andrews is back, and Derrick Henry re-energizes the Ravens run game. It leaves Flowers in the boom-or-bust range of Fantasy receivers and not somebody who will consistently do important things like score touchdowns or get a lot of receptions.
CBS Fantasy ADP: 65.6
I'd take him: around 70th overall