I've been writing annual columns about players who I think could bust for 20 consecutive years. Seriously, 20 years!
But I've never once written a busts column like this.
Truth is, there are a lot of players I have some concerns about this year. More than normal. But some of you are already up to speed on some of them. Other players are still getting taken sooner than I would recommend ... some a lot sooner.
So I'm breaking this up into three different bust categories: Quarterbacks, players going too soon, and players who just flat-out worry me. Obviously Average Draft Position is a factor in most of these busts -- I would happily draft most of these players if they weren't getting reached for so soon.
Players are listed in order by their FantasyPros PPR Average Draft Position as of August 15.
Quarterbacks
We're not seeing quarterbacks seep back into Round 1 -- even the most basic of drafters have learned at least that much. But there are still plenty of folks who are taking quarterbacks too soon in one-QB formats. Here are some examples based on ADP:
- Josh Allen, 25.0
- Patrick Mahomes, 29.8
- C.J. Stroud, 47.2
- Dak Prescott, 69.8
- Jordan Love, 73.2
- Kyler Murray, 73.8
- Brock Purdy, 94.0
I would be happy with any of these players on my team, just not at these spots.
My advice remains: You have to feel like you are stealing your quarterback from the rest of your league when you draft them. Taking Stroud in Round 4 feels like you're getting robbed, not like you're robbing your league. Same thing with Allen at the Round 2/3 turn. It's just senseless to reach for a quarterback when you know you'll find one at a good value later on.
Busts going way too soon
These are players I have ranked considerably lower than their current ADP, which means I am probably not going to draft many/any of these guys.
Travis Kelce
Why might he bust? It's sad to think about, but Kelce can't be great forever. No one can. He'll be 35 this season and is coming off a postseason where he was an absolute monster for four games, but a total disappointment in most of the nine games prior. The Chiefs, to their credit, made splashes at receiver this offseason with the idea that they can spread the ball around and not have to ride their hero tight end every week. I'll never suggest Kelce is a total bust, but I wouldn't be surprised if his target volume dipped and his Fantasy production was more in line with several other tight ends.
FantasyPros ADP: 23.8
I'd take him: around 30th overall
Michael Pittman
Why might he bust? Over 94 routes with Anthony Richardson last year, Pittman saw 22 targets, which is actually a cool 23.4% target share. Those targets resulted in a 13-142-1 stat line, the equivalent of 33.2 PPR points. With Gardner Minshew, Pittman had a ridiculous 28.5% target share and a 96-1,010-3 campaign on 134 targets. Minshew's gone, Richardson's back and so too should the Colts' run-happy ways. A deeper receiving corps also could cramp Pittman's target volume, and his lack of efficiency (2.04 yards per route run was 44th among qualifying wideouts) threaten his chances of being anywhere near as productive in 2024.
FantasyPros ADP: 32.8
I'd take him: around 65th overall
Stefon Diggs
Why might he bust? You can't help but be worried about Diggs' volume. In Buffalo he was good for over eight targets per game even when he stunk toward the end of last season. But in Houston it's hard to see Diggs get that kind of volume every week given the other components of the Texans offense. Diggs can still play, and he should thrive in the slot role, but the idea he can come close to what he once was just seems so unlikely, which is why his ADP should continue sliding down.
FantasyPros ADP: 38.0
I'd take him: around 55th overall
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Zay Flowers
Why might he bust? In the eight games when a Ravens running back had 13 or more PPR points last year, Flowers exceeded 14 PPR points just two times, and one of them was when Justice Hill caught a touchdown among a career-high five receptions. And when Flowers had his breakout five-game stretch to end 2023, Mark Andrews was sidelined. In fact, Andrews was sidelined for all but two of Flowers' games with 13 or more PPR points last season. Andrews is back, and Derrick Henry re-energizes the Ravens run game. It leaves Flowers in the boom-or-bust range of Fantasy receivers and not somebody who will consistently do important things like score touchdowns or get a lot of receptions.
FantasyPros ADP: 58.0
I'd take him: around 70th overall
Aaron Jones
Why might he bust? Before he erupted in the playoffs last year, Jones totaled 483 yards and three touchdowns on 102 touches over eight games. He's missed playing time in three of his past four seasons and will turn 30 this season. Minnesota has to recognize this issue and may put fellow running back Ty Chandler on the field for more snaps than expected. And while you could make the case that the Vikings may try to run the ball more this year now that Sam Darnold is their quarterback, the truth is that the Vikings have been among the most pass-heavy offenses in football since Kevin O'Connell became their head coach. As such, they've failed to produce a RB with a 15-plus PPR point average in each of the past two seasons (Alexander Mattison averaged 8.3 PPR per game in 2023). Worse yet, Jones' ADP has gone up 10 spots since the offseason, making him even more expensive!
FantasyPros ADP: 58.8
I'd take him: around 70th overall
D'Andre Swift
Why might he bust? It's a red flag that he's on his third team in as many years, but the larger issue is that he's never delivered strong numbers consistently throughout a season. I also think he'll share with two other backs in Chicago, closing the door on the number of games he'll have 15 or more touches in. And not only did the Bears get a lot of receiving help for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but Williams himself scored on 19 of 33 rush attempts inside the 10, 16 of 22 rush attempts inside the 5, and 9 of 11 rush attempts at the one-yard line last season at Southern Cal. Swift will deal with someone stealing touches and scores from him every week.
FantasyPros ADP: 63.2
I'd take him: around 80th overall
Raheem Mostert
Why might he bust? If you had put odds on it, what would you have put on a 31-year-old running back smashing his career-highs and leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns? 20-1? 30-1? Still too low? Now tell me what those odds would be on said running back coming anywhere close to those career highs in his age-32 season? Miami is set to utilize multiple running backs every week -- that's just Mike McDaniel's way. They even added another speedster in Jaylen Wright who's looked good in camp and the preseason -- he might be there for more than just long-term stability. Mostert is cool to begin the year with, but that's about it.
FantasyPros ADP: 75.2
I'd take him: around 85th overall
David Njoku
Why might he bust? In five games with Deshaun Watson last year, Njoku averaged 8.3 PPR points per game on 5.2 targets per game. In five games with Watson in 2022 he averaged 9.0 PPR points per game on 5.6 targets per game. Cleveland's addition of Jerry Jeudy to its receiving corps isn't going to help change these trends. And like some others, his ADP has gone up since the offseason. I love the player but can't trust the situation.
FantasyPros ADP: 81.6
I'd take him: around 120th overall
Busts I just have a bad feeling about
These are players I have ranked close to, if not ahead of, their current offseason ADP. Drafters are already aware of the concerns surrounding these guys.
De'Von Achane
Why might he bust? Achane's biggest numbers came in blowouts last season, and he couldn't stay on the field consistently. That's not a reference to his health as much as it is a reference to his playing time -- Dolphins running backs will always share touches. I am encouraged by the reports of him becoming more of a factor in the passing game, which should theoretically put him in places where he won't run into a bunch of big defenders play after play. But Raheem Mostert has had a good camp and has been spotted working with the starters a bunch, including in the two-minute offense, and rookie Jaylen Wright not only looks the part of a quality back but ran like it in Miami's first preseason game. Bottom line: Achane has the kind of upside you dream about, but he shouldn't be drafted solely on that when there's a lot of uncertainty around him otherwise.
FantasyPros ADP: 25.0
I'd take him: around 35th overall
Kyle Pitts
Why might he bust? When hasn't he? In 44 career games Pitts has six touchdowns, eight games with 70 or more yards and nine games with five or more receptions. I know Kirk Cousins should throw him some prettier balls than past Falcons quarterbacks, but it took seeing Pitts in person to really leave me feeling shook. I saw Pitts move around with a little more fluidity than he did last year, but not like his rookie year, plus he was used more for his body and not for his speed. I noted Cousins threw three different teammates more targets in two days of joint practices with the Dolphins than he threw to Pitts. And I heard Cousins say he's encouraging Pitts to stop using his body to catch passes and to start running as fast as he possibly can. Those are things Pitts should be doing by his fourth season in the NFL. I know he has outstanding potential but we've rarely seen it and I struggle to believe we'll see it now.
FantasyPros ADP: 61.6
I'd take him: around 85th overall
Rhamondre Stevenson
Why might he bust? Stevenson averaged 12.1 PPR points per game as well as 3.2 receptions per game, meaning about 25% of his per-game Fantasy points came solely on receptions. The Patriots added pass-catching running back Antonio Gibson this offseason, potentially taking Stevenson off the field in obvious passing situations. New England also did not do too much to enhance its offensive line after struggling to pop open lanes for the run game last year and the ensuing results have amounted to plenty of negative reports on the O-line through training camp. Stevenson could very well be tied to game script -- if the Patriots are in close games, he might deliver nice numbers, but if not, he'll stink. They've got a win over/under of 4.5, the lowest in the league. Lastly, Stevenson has a horrible track record in division games -- one touchdown in 13 tries. Maybe he'll be decent, but I'd be surprised if he averaged over 14 PPR points per game.
FantasyPros ADP: 65.0
I'd take him: around 75th overall
