Maybe it's because of C.J. Stroud's breakout season, maybe it's because some of these rookies are better than Stroud was when he was a prospect, but either way, Fantasy managers are much more interested in the 2024 rookie quarterbacks than they were the 2023 group.
In the case of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, they lived up to the hype. In the case of Bo Nix, he started generating his own hype.
Williams started, played 20 snaps (including penalties) and was as good as advertised. The flick to D'Andre Swift for 42 yards was a designed play that he stayed cool on when defenders came at him. His decision to overlook receiver Nsimba Webster running in front of him for Cole Kmet deeper downfield was the kind of greedy, max-gain throw we saw from him at USC. He tried something similar in the red zone and was a smidge off-target for D.J. Moore, but he and Moore connected a couple of times. He scrambled when he saw green space in front of him, maybe forced one bad throw (on a play that resulted in a Bills penalty anyway) and even took the safe route on an end-zone target for Rome Odunze where either his receiver would get it or it would go out of bounds, which it did.
Daniels didn't play nearly as long -- 12 snaps including penalties -- and threw just three passes. But the one that got the most attention was a perfect deep ball to Dyami Brown for 42 yards. If you saw him play at LSU, you knew he could make those throws with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., and to see him do that with Brown was exciting. And then Daniels ran for a short-yardage touchdown untouched against Jets backups on a zone-read. He was also as good as advertised.
Nix may have been better than advertised. He played with the Broncos starters and popped on his third pass attempt, an on-the-run lob to Courtland Sutton along the sideline. From then on he was 14-of-19 passing, added a terrific zone-read run for 11 yards and led the Broncos on four scoring drives including an accurate out-route throw from two yards out to Marvin Mims. About the only drawback was Nix missing on three of his four deep throws; one could have been picked off, and another went just past Josh Reynolds' hands for a would-be touchdown.
Above all, each of these quarterbacks looked comfortable and had command of their respective offenses. They could end up mattering in Fantasy this year -- Williams and Daniels more so than Nix. Daniels is my favorite of the three in redraft and is a borderline top-12 Fantasy quarterback, though you might have trust issues using him Week 1. Williams is a top-15 quarterback and is at least a definite bench stash. Nix is on the two-QB radar as a dynamite backup (and low-end starter if need be).
What happens now in Minnesota?
Rookie J.J. McCarthy's torn meniscus changes the trajectory for the Vikings offense -- for how long we just don't know. The more severe McCarthy's injury is, the more time he figures to miss. Sam Darnold is expected to assume the starting job for however long that takes.
I'd classify Darnold as steady in his preseason debut with the Vikings. He threw a fantastic deep anticipatory pass to Jalen Nailor for a 26-yard gain and threw a good ball to Jordan Addison on a short out route, but was a tad behind Nailor on his first target (Nailor still caught it).
Nothing about Darnold's game against the Raiders discouraged me, but it was always J.J. McCarthy's potential as a passer that made me more excited about Justin Jefferson's chances for another big year.
Darnold has never been responsible for a receiver getting over 850 yards (much less 1,000 yards) in a single season, he's never connected with a receiver for more than six scores in a single season, and his completion rate has never been higher than 61.9% in a single season, and he's had 6.9 yards per attempt or less in five of six seasons. By comparison, Nick Mullens is better on those last two stats, albeit on fewer attempts (65.8% completion rate, 8.0 yards per pass attempt).
I'm hoping McCarthy's meniscus tear is minimal and he recovers with a shot to play around November. Jefferson would still be worth taking with a top-10 pick in that scenario. But if the rookie is out for the year and we're graced with Darnold to begin the year, I'm hoping he stinks quickly so Nick Mullens could get back on the field to rescue Jefferson.
Richardson's re-debut
I was in Indianapolis for Anthony Richardson's return to the field against Denver. His playing time was brief -- Richardson seemed rusty at first but collected himself a little and made some easy throws before sitting. He threw in front of each of his first two intended targets and should have been intercepted on one of the throws. But then Indy coach Shane Steichen got him settled down and gave him an easy, quick hitch to tight end Mo Alie-Cox that turned into a long gain, then he checked down to Kyle Granson on a shallow crosser.
Between the completions, Richardson had an RPO play that may have been meant to target either Alie-Cox or Pittman on hitch routes. Alie-Cox was covered and Richardson may not have seen Pittman open coming out of his break because he flushed himself out of the pocket when his lineman got backed into his launch point. Richardson ran for the sideline instead of throwing across his body to a still-open Pittman that would have been good for a first down. Richardson accelerated and gained a yard on the ground.
Look, Richardson's outlook shouldn't change just because he was rusty on a couple of throws and gun-shy on another. If this were his first-ever NFL action, I might be nervous. But it's not, and we know he's capable of much more. Hope we see him look better before the preseason ends. I'm still taking him as a top-six Fantasy quarterback.
Quick hits
- Here's a look at what I saw from Justin Fields on Friday in Pittsburgh, and why Russell Wilson is probably going to be the Steelers' starter to begin the year.
- I loved watching C.J. Stroud look poised and comfortable behind an offensive line with both starting tackles out against the Steelers (who themselves were without their best pass rushers). His timing with Tank Dell on their touchdown was awesome. I have zero concerns about Stroud for 2024.
- We probably expected Trevor Lawrence to play flawless football at this point, but even in his preseason game with the Chiefs he left some stats on the field. He was safe on his first throw and slow on his last dropback, costing some numbers for Brian Thomas on the first play, and Evan Engram on the last. But in between Lawrence was in sync on Travis Etienne's option route for a touchdown and had great accuracy on a throw to Gabe Davis on an intermediate dig route for 20 yards. The real secret sauce was that Thomas got open with Lawrence, then adjusted on a deep ball from C.J. Beathard later in the first half. This was the first look at Thomas, and if he's acclimated to the game as it seems, then both he and Lawrence could be Draft Day steals.
- I don't know if anyone needs a Raiders QB competition update, but I think both Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew were solid. Both had great throws, both had throws I bet they wish they could try again. I wouldn't say one separated from the other, but O'Connell might be the one who can take better care of the ball for them and that gets him the nod. If he plays as freely as he did in this game and as he did late last year, I think he'll be OK for Vegas' pass-catchers.