Average Draft Position has already shifted in early August. With it comes changes to who's getting taken too soon and who's value is just right.
In the first iteration of my 2026 busts, Zay Flowers and Davante Adams were being taken too soon for my liking. Since then they've fallen to points in drafts where I'd be OK taking them. They're off the list. Candidly, I'm sort of glad Flowers is off the list. Always been a fan of his. Obviously been a fan of Adams since forever.
But who cares if I'm happy if some receivers are off the list?! What matters is who's ON the list. Who's getting taken too soon? The answer? Running backs. Five of them to be exact.
Including last year's best Fantasy running back.
If this year's bust list is as good as last year's, then someone picking in the top six in every draft is gonna be unhappy.
As usual, busts are based on Average Draft Position as of the date of this article. I'll never rule out drafting anyone on this list but if it's not at a value then I am for-sure OUT on that player being on any of my teams.
Annual reminder on drafting QBs
It's taken about a decade but we're finally starting to get through to more people about the pitfalls of reaching for a quarterback too soon in one-QB redraft leagues. At least it looks that way based on CBS Offseason Average Draft Position (ADP), where Josh Allen (25.4th overall), Drake Maye (51.8) and Lamar Jackson (41.6) are the first three signal-callers off the board.
Do yourself a favor and find a ranked list of Fantasy quarterbacks. As you scan the names, ask yourself if you'd be OK starting them on your squad. The more names you say yes to, the more you should be focused on not reaching for a quarterback in your drafts. Similarly, if you don't say yes to many QBs as starters, then you might only feel good about your team if you do reach for a quarterback. More on this in my QB strategy story.
Point is, there are a lot of good quarterbacks you could start, and if you wait until you get a steal of a deal then you should benefit by getting some good players at other positions first.
CBS Sports ADP: 7.2
FantasyPros ADP: 5.6
He's sorta bust-ish because ... he's a 30-year-old running back coming off of a 450-touch season and his own team hinted at a reduction in his workload. Deebo Samuel's return in late July is an example of potential hindrances, especially after he's coming off of a career-high 7.6 targets per game in 2025 (1.7 higher than his previous best with the 49ers). There's a history of NFL running backs falling off after a 450-plus-touch season, but it's McCaffrey's own history of coming off 380-plus-touch seasons that should make you flinch. He's always been dominant or disastrous with no in-between, and his health has been tied to those outcomes every single time. At bare minimum, drafters should know what they're getting into when they trust McCaffrey with a top-10 pick.
I'd draft him: No sooner than eighth overall in any format
I'd rather draft: Jonathan Taylor
CBS Sports ADP: 30.1
FantasyPros ADP: 23.2
He's a bust because ... his talent may not be enough to overcome the situation he's in this year, particularly compared to other players drafted between 20th and 35th overall. Arizona's offense obviously has some quality options in the passing game, but the team also has no reason to put too much work on Love's plate when they just paid up for Tyler Allgeier and still have James Conner on the roster. And there will be games where Love doesn't get the type of touches we want, be it because the Cardinals are trailing and forced to throw or because other running backs take too much away from Love. Also not helping: the offensive line doesn't look so good on paper, and the schedule looks treacherous. There's no doubting Love's talent -- in time he'll be a contender for the 1.01 in Fantasy drafts -- but in a year where Arizona isn't expected to seriously contend, Love will probably produce like Bijan Robinson or Ashton Jeanty did in their rookie years, and that's not what we're hoping for when drafting someone before or at 30th overall.
I'd draft him: No sooner than late Round 3
I'd rather draft: Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams
CBS Sports ADP: 31.4
FantasyPros ADP: 31.2
He's a bust because ... he's on a shaky offense with suspect coaches making suspect personnel decisions. For the second year in a row, Jets coach Aaron Glenn insists on using three running backs. That's perfect for new playcaller Frank Reich, who has habitually used one guy for rushing downs and another for passing downs (third downs, two-minute offense). Reich's history with RBs has been awful for Fantasy: Just four times in 10 seasons has a back averaged at least 13 PPR points under his playcalling. Geno Smith has been no prize for his running backs either -- Ashton Jeanty had to scrape and claw his way to 14.4 PPR points per game last year and that was the second-best average a RB has had in Smith's six seasons as a full-time starter. Drafting Hall with the expectation to land 13 PPR points per game is reasonable, but I'm not looking for that in Round 3 or really even Round 4.
I'd draft him: Round 5
I'd rather draft: Travis Etienne
CBS Sports ADP: 43.3
FantasyPros ADP: 44.2
He's a bust because ... he's hard to envision returning to his 2024 breakout form. He started last season as a workhorse for the Bucs, averaging 18.0 PPR points on 22.5 touches. Receptions really boosted his numbers (nearly five receptions per game). Then he got hurt late in Week 4 and wasn't the same even though the Bucs gave him a pretty hefty workload (18.8 touches) in his final six (11.1 PPR points per game). I fear Tampa Bay's coaches have learned that they can't commit to Irving as much as last year, and that's why they re-upped Sean Tucker and signed Kenneth Gainwell to replace Rachaad White. Gainwell is a cinch for third downs, and both Tucker and Gainwell could steal carries from Irving, especially near the goal line where Irving had as many carries inside the five as you did. So if Irving isn't scoring from short range and not catching as many passes and not getting as many touches, then what's left for him to get to help your team?
I'd draft him: late Round 5
I'd rather draft: David Montgomery
CBS Sports ADP: 59.6
FantasyPros ADP: 55.6
He's a bust because ... I'm not sold the targets will be there for him. They've rarely been whenever he's played in the same game as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta -- last year it was 4.8 per game. New Lions playcaller Drew Petzing has been one of the most TE-friendly playcallers in the NFL, constantly utilizing and targeting tight ends to create mismatches. His arrival might mean a lot of inconsistent numbers for Williams. It's a shame because Williams is legitimately amazing, but until he's got a locked-in role, he shouldn't be one of your first five picks.
I'd draft him: Round 6
I'd rather draft: Brian Thomas Jr.
CBS Sports ADP: 71.0
FantasyPros ADP: 70.4
He's a bust because ... other than for a five-game stretch where he played without Drake London last year, Pitts has routinely fallen below 10 PPR points per game. Pick any year of his career, and pick out his 12 games with Drake London from 2025 when he averaged 9.6, and you'll see that he's underwhelmed every single time. Not enough evidence? Okay, how about Pitts failing to clear 10 PPR points in 18 of his past 29 games with London? What about London earning nearly five more targets per game than Pitts in 2024 and 3.1 in their 12 shared games in 2025? Yes there's a new offense being built in Atlanta and Kevin Stefanski has a reputation of being a rabid tight end user, but that's the only sane argument for a tight end that continually disappoints. I'd love it if he were the focal point of the offense, but he's not, nor is the passing game expected to be dynamite with Tua Tagovailoa expected to begin the season.
I'd draft him: Round 7-8 turn
I'd rather draft: Isaiah Likely
CBS Sports ADP: 81.2
FantasyPros ADP: 78.8
He's a bust because ... he's not going to have the same role he finished last year in. From Week 11 through the postseason, Harvey averaged 16.2 touches and 14.2 PPR points per game, boosted heavily by the six total touchdowns and 31 receptions he had in those games. Since then, the Broncos not only brought back J.K. Dobbins but may have gotten a steal in rookie runner Jonah Coleman, and he can do some of the things Harvey was good at last year. Point is, Harvey is unlikely to have any shot at a large touch share and may struggle to even find the end zone. Receptions might still be part of his game, but is that enough to carry him to even 10 PPR points from week to week? Though he's healthy to begin this year compared to all of last season, his reality has changed -- so too should your expectations.
I'd draft him: Round 9/10 turn
I'd rather draft: Rachaad White
CBS Sports ADP: 93.8
FantasyPros ADP: 85.6
He's a bust because ... people are putting too much into his draft capital and highlight reels and not into reality. The hamstring injury that limited him in the lead-up to the draft came from an injury he tried to play through in 2025. In 2024 he fractured his collarbone. In 2023 he barely played after his left ACL, MCL and PCL were hit head-on by a violent defender in 2022. It's a lot of wear and tear on someone just getting started in the pros. Tyson definitely proved to be speedy and shifty when he did play, but he was not physical at all, struggling with press coverage and rarely making post-contact gains (only four of Tyson's 136 catches in 2024-25 went 10-plus yards after first contact). He also had a poor catch rate in contested situations (43.8% catch rate in 2025). He can be a good No. 2 option for Tyler Shough in New Orleans, and he's certain to have some good weeks, but I have real concerns about his durability and adjustment to NFL Sundays, not to mention outperforming someone like Chris Olave. I want to give him a year before being all-in.
I'd draft him: mid-Round 9
I'd rather draft: KC Concepcion
CBS Sports ADP: 87.5
FantasyPros ADP: 79.0
He's a bust because ... his situation has gotten worse for the second offseason in a row. Going from Seattle to Pittsburgh was bad, and being stuck in an offense that rarely challenged downfield led to Metcalf's worst per-game average in any reception-based format since his rookie year. The Steelers still have Aaron Rodgers but added veteran wideout Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Germie Bernard while changing playbooks to Mike McCarthy's West Coast offense. McCarthy values receivers who can run the whole route tree and can especially win on slants, hitches and flats. Metcalf can do those, but Pittman and Bernard figure to be even better, especially on hitches. The improved receiving corps and playbook is expected to change a lot of what we saw from the Steelers in 2025, including a slight downturn from the 6.6 targets per game Metcalf had last year. And in 2025, he had just as many games with under 10 PPR points as he did with 14-plus PPR points (six each). Sure, the value of drafting him outside of the first six rounds is good, but I'm not sure he's even the best wideout in Pittsburgh.
I'd draft him: late Round 9
I'd rather draft: Michael Pittman
