The 2024 NFL season is almost underway, and your final Fantasy Football drafts will likely occur over the next 24-48 hours. With that in mind, it's important to catch up -- a cheat sheet if you will -- on all of the Fantasy Football Today team's favorite sleepers for the 2024 season. I caught up with Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings to find out who their top three breakout picks for the 2024 season are -- plus a bonus breakout from Adam Aizer -- and without further ado, let's jump right in:
Jamey's Top-3 Busts
Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
I don't mind his ADP at No. 29 overall in Round 3, but he's still the No. 11 wide receiver, which is too soon. He's the No. 16 receiver in my rankings, and I have only drafted Adams once so far this season. I had Adams as a bust last season, and he averaged 15.6 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total since 2017. I was nervous about him turning 30, his quarterback situation, and some unrealistic expectations for Fantasy managers, who were still drafting Adams in Round 1. I have a lot of those same concerns this season, especially since he's 31 and potentially on the decline. Since 2014, there have been 63 wide receivers aged 31 or older to start at least 10 games in a season. Only eight of them have finished in the top 12 in PPR and only 15 have finished in the top 25. That doesn't bode well for Adams' upside this year. Gardner Minshew will start for the Raiders this season, and he was great for Michael Pittman Jr. last year in Indianapolis with 156 targets for 109 catches, 1,152 yards, and four touchdowns. But Adams has earned at least 175 targets in each of his two seasons with the Raiders and scored 22 touchdowns. If those numbers come down then Adams' Fantasy production could crater. It could be a long year for Adams in 2024.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings
The last time we saw Jones was at the end of an impressive five-game run through the NFL playoffs for the Packers. From Week 16 through the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Jones was on fire, with five games in a row of at least 108 rushing yards, and he scored at least 13 PPR points in each outing. But Jones struggled with injuries for most of the 2023 campaign, and that's hard to forget. He missed the majority of the first five weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury, and then he missed Weeks 12-14 while dealing with a sprained MCL. At 29 (he turns 30 in December), Jones' best production could be behind him. With the Vikings, Jones will share touches with Ty Chandler, and there was a Yahoo report in training camp that indicated the duo will have a 50-50 split. You also have a suspect quarterback in Sam Darnold that could limit the entire offense in Minnesota. Age and durability are reasonable concerns for Jones, and the earliest I would draft him this season is Round 7 in all leagues.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
If I can draft Conner as a flex this season then I'm thrilled about it, but his ADP is 47.8 as the No. 18 running back, which is too rich for me. He's 29, and he's potentially facing significant competition for touches in third-round rookie Trey Benson. Conner also has missed at least three games in five of his past six seasons, which you have to factor in when drafting him. When healthy, he's been great, and he just had the first 1,000-yard season of his career in 2023 (1,040), while also setting a career-high in yards per carry (5.0). But he also saw the fewest targets (33) and catches (27 and 2.1 per game) since he was a barely-used rookie with Pittsburgh in 2017. We hope he's not becoming a Fantasy running back who is reliant on his rushing production alone, and Benson could impact those stats as well. The earliest I would draft Conner is Round 6 in most leagues.
Dave's Top-3 Busts
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
In 44 career games, Pitts has six touchdowns, eight games with 70 or more yards and nine games with five or more receptions. I know Kirk Cousins should throw him some prettier balls than past Falcons quarterbacks, but it took seeing Pitts practice in person to really leave me feeling shaken. I saw Pitts move around with a little more fluidity than he did last year, but he still was winning with his size and catching passes with his body and not running away from people. I noted Cousins threw three different teammates more targets in two days of joint practices with the Dolphins than he threw to Pitts. And I heard Cousins say he's encouraging Pitts to stop using his body to catch passes and to start running as fast as he possibly can. Those are things Pitts should have been doing by his fourth season in the NFL. I know he has outstanding potential but we've rarely seen it and I struggle to believe we'll see it now.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
Over 94 routes with Anthony Richardson last year, Pittman saw 22 targets, which is actually a cool 23.4% target share. But that's chump change compared to the ridiculous 28.5% target share he had in 2023 with Gardner Minshew. Furthermore, the expectation is that the Colts will be more run-focused with Richardson back and Jonathan Taylor healthy. And if that's not bad enough, the eventual return of Josh Downs and the addition of rookie Adonai Mitchell should further dilute Pittman's target share. His own lack of efficiency (2.04 yards per route run was 44th among qualifying wideouts) and lack of scoring opportunities (six or fewer touchdowns in each of four seasons) threaten his chances of being anywhere near as productive as he was last season.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
It's a red flag that he's on his third team in as many years, but the larger issue is that he's never delivered strong numbers consistently throughout a season. I also think he'll share with two other backs in Chicago, closing the door on the number of games he'll have 15 or more touches in. Not only did the Bears get a lot of receiving help for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but Williams himself scored on 19 of 33 rush attempts inside the 10, 16 of 22 rush attempts inside the 5, and 9 of 11 rush attempts at the one-yard line last season at Southern Cal. Swift will deal with someone stealing touches and scores from him every week.
Heath's Top-3 Breakouts
Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
Last year Barkley finished as RB10 per game. His current ADP is seventh among all players. While I understand that the Eagles are a better offense with a better offensive line than the Giants, Jacob Gibbs did well to point out that Philadelphia has not been a good place for running back Fantasy production since Jalen Hurts got there. This makes sense to me; Hurts scores double-digit rushing touchdowns every year and has one of the lowest running back target rates in the league. I would not draft Barkley until the end of Round 2 and even that doesn't feel good.
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Henry landed with Lamar Jackson. This could be great for his efficiency, but his volume is almost certainly going down. He finished 17th per game at running back last year and is currently being drafted 15th overall. This just seems flat out insane to me. Even if Henry was on the same team, expecting a 30-year-old running back to be better than he was at 29 is a bad bet. Doing so with what we know about backs changing teams is just foolish. I would not draft Henry before Round 4.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Kelce set a career-low at 10.6 yards per catch and 8.1 yards per target. His 4.1% touchdown rate was his lowest since 2019. He'll turn 35 in October and the team added both Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in the offseason. The Chiefs want Kelce at 100% in February, not October. He's my TE4, but he's being drafted as the number one tight end, a full round ahead of TE2 Sam Laporta. I would rather have Trey McBride or Mark Andrews and they're both going close to two rounds later.