The average draft position data at our disposal prior to August isn't always the best guide. In fact, some of it can be misleading when you factor in casual Fantasy players doing mock drafts for fun. The good news is ADP strengthens as a predictive tool once training camp starts.
That being said, when it comes to finding who might be sleepers, we need a place to start. So using the early CBS Sports ADP for PPR leagues, let's see who is going after pick No. 100 overall. And I was shocked to see two of my favorite running backs in this range with Tyjae Spears and Jaylen Warren.
Spears (ADP of 101.1) and Warren (104.9) will be on most of my Fantasy teams this season, especially if I can draft them in Round 8 or later. They might be the best running backs on their respective rosters already.
Let's start with Spears, who lost Derrick Henry (Baltimore) as a teammate this offseason, but gained Tony Pollard. Almost every member of the Titans coaching staff has said that Spears and Pollard will both get plenty of work this year, including new coach Brian Callahan to CBS Sports at the NFL owners meeting.
Callahan called Pollard and Spears a "pretty formidable 1-2 punch." But Callahan wouldn't say if one will get significantly more touches than the other.
"They both can score touchdowns," Callahan said. "Have some explosiveness and make you miss in their game. Catch the ball out of the backfield and protect. You have two guys that are interchangeable that both add something unique to the offense.
"I think it will be a pretty good division of labor between the two of them. The thing that excites me about them both is that they both can pass protect, and they're both good at it. You don't necessarily have to take one or the other off the field on third down, which is really good for us."
While Pollard will likely open the season as the starter, it sounds like Spears will get his opportunities to succeed. As a rookie in 2023, Spears only had seven games with at least 10 total touches, but he scored at least 11.7 PPR points in four of those outings.
He did well as a receiver out of the backfield and was one of just 14 running backs in 2023 with at least 50 receptions (52 catches for 385 yards and a touchdown on 70 targets). If Spears remains in the pass-catching role that gives him value even as a flex if he's the backup to Pollard early in the year. And if Pollard were to miss time due to an injury then Spears could be a star.
Warren could also find himself in a starring role if something were to happen to Najee Harris, but Warren showed in 2023 he has plenty of standalone value on his own. He averaged 11.6 PPR points per game -- just ahead of Harris (11.5) -- and that came with Warren finishing fifth among running backs in receptions with 61 catches for 370 yards on 74 targets.
This season, under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, we could see Warren get more opportunities as a rusher as well. While Harris should remain the workhorse, Smith's offenses in previous stops in Tennessee and Atlanta have been run heavy, and last season with the Falcons, Bijan Robinson (214 carries) and Tyler Allgeier (186 carries) each got plenty of work.
Warren only had 149 carries compared to 255 for Harris in 2023, but it's not crazy to expect both to be around 200 carries this season. And Warren averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year, which bodes well for his potential production this year if his role increases.
We'll see if the ADP changes much for Spears and Warren in August. For now, I plan to buy a lot of stock in both of these running backs on most of my Fantasy teams this season. And here are some other sleepers I plan to invest in for 2024.
Purdy's early ADP on CBS Sports (110.3) puts him in sleeper territory even though he was the No. 6 quarterback in 2023 at 23.4 Fantasy points per game. We'll see if something changes to his receiving corps prior to Week 1 with the potential of Brandon Aiyuk being traded, but the 49ers added first-round rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall to Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. That's a ridiculous amount of talent, especially in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Purdy has been extremely consistent since becoming San Francisco's starter in 2022 with at least 20.3 Fantasy points in 15 of 21 starts. And he should be a great asset to your Fantasy team at this cost, which is the No. 12 quarterback off the board as of now.
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Goff (CBS Sports ADP of 140.2) loves playing football indoors. Over the past two seasons, Goff has played 23 games indoors, and he scored at least 20 Fantasy points in 15 of those outings while averaging 23.2 Fantasy points per game over that span. Why does that matter? This season, the Lions only play three games outdoors (Week 9 at Green Bay, Week 16 at Chicago and Week 17 at San Francisco). That bodes well for Goff performing at a high level given his track record, and it helps that he's surrounded by great weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit was also able to retain offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, which is a plus for Goff as well. He's the perfect quarterback to wait for on Draft Day this year given his ADP.
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Other sleeper quarterbacks to consider: Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence
Brown will be one of my favorite targets on Draft Day, especially at his ADP on CBS Sports (117.6), and I won't be surprised if he's the best running back in Cincinnati this season. With Joe Mixon (Houston) gone, Zack Moss was brought in as the starter as a free agent from Indianapolis. While Moss was great filling in for Jonathan Taylor last year in the first five weeks of the season, Moss struggled to stay healthy when given chances to start in Buffalo at the beginning of his career. And it might not take an injury to Moss for Brown to prove he's the best running back for the Bengals. He didn't have a ton of work as a rookie in 2023 (44 carries for 179 yards and 14 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets), but in the three games where he had at least 10 total touches, he averaged 11.3 PPR points. Brown could open the season as a PPR flex while playing behind Moss given his expected role in the passing game. And if Moss were to miss time during the year then Brown could be a No. 2 running back in all leagues.
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We'll see what happens with Nick Chubb in training camp, but he's coming back from a difficult left knee injury suffered in Week 2 last year. At 28, we don't know how effective Chubb will be when he's back on the field, and the Browns could always opt to put him on the PUP list to start the season. If Chubb is out or limited then Ford (CBS Sports ADP of 115.0) will have the chance for plenty of work, and he averaged 12.4 PPR points per game last season as the main running back filling in for Chubb. Ford worked in tandem with Kareem Hunt, and Ford proved he could be an impact Fantasy option even though he only had four rushing touchdowns (Hunt had nine). D'Onta Foreman was added this offseason, but that seems more like insurance for Chubb and not someone who will replace Ford as the No. 2 running back on the roster. And even if Chubb is healthy, we know he's shared work plenty of time in his career with Hunt, and now Ford could fill that secondary role. He could be awesome if Chubb is out and a flex even when Chubb is playing.
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Heading into training camp, the Dallas depth chart at running back is Ezekiel Elliott, Dowdle, Royce Freeman and Deuce Vaughn. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Cowboys make a move to add another running back, so keep that in mind. While Elliott returning to Dallas is a nice story, I'm not ruling out Dowdle being the best Cowboys running back this year if no one is added. And I plan to draft a lot of shares of Dowdle (CBS Sports ADP of 132.0) at his current price. Coach Mike McCarthy said bringing Dowdle back this season was "important," and hopefully McCarthy gives Dowdle more work in 2024. He only had three games last season with double digits in touches, but he scored at least 12.2 PPR points in each outing. Elliott (CBS Sports ADP of 113.0) is a good value pick as well, but it's hard to count on him at 29, especially with how he looked running the ball the past two seasons in Dallas and New England. I'd rather take a flier on Dowdle with the hope he has more upside in this wide-open backfield.
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The Broncos might have one of the most crowded backfields heading into training camp if everyone stays in Denver with Javonte Williams, McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Samaje Perine and Blake Watson. I'd love to see one of them traded, especially Williams (hello Dallas), since Sean Payton inherited Williams and added everyone else in the past two years. We'll see if anything happens on that front, but McLaughlin has drawn rave reviews this offseason, with several Broncos writers saying he looks like the best running back on the team. As a rookie in 2023, McLaughlin had a limited role with 76 carries for 410 yards and one touchdown and 31 catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns on 36 targets. He had three games with at least 10 total touches, and he averaged 16.0 PPR points per game over that span. His 5.4 yards per carry was also tied for second in the NFL of running backs with at least 50 carries, trailing only De'Von Achane (7.8). And it would be fun to see what McLaughlin could do with an increased workload. I'm excited about McLaughlin, especially if his ADP stays in this range (148.0 on CBS Sports).
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Other sleeper running backs to consider: Blake Corum, Zach Charbonnet, Tyrone Tracy Jr., MarShawn Lloyd, Ty Chandler and Kimai Vidal
Smith-Njigba has the chance to be a sophomore star after a relatively quiet rookie season in 2023 with 63 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns on 93 targets. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's system should benefit Smith-Njigba if he remains the slot receiver for Seattle, and hopefully we see Tyler Lockett fade into more of a secondary role behind Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf. Last year, Smith-Njigba had five games with at least seven targets, and he scored at least 12.1 PPR points in four of them. New coach Mike Maconald said Smith-Njigba will be a "massive piece" of the Seahawks offense, adding "I think we got a really cool plan for him." Smith-Njigba is an easy player to buy at his CBS Sports ADP of 108.5, and he could emerge as a top-30 Fantasy receiver in all leagues this year.
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I'm excited about the Bears passing game this season with Caleb Williams at quarterback, but I don't want to overpay for any of the receivers. Based on the CBS Sports ADP, D.J. Moore is too expensive (30.6), and I don't want to draft Keenan Allen at his cost as well (75.6), especially since he's 32 years old. Instead, I'll wait for Odunze (105.3), who should be the third receiver in Chicago to open the season, but he has the upside to be the No. 1 target for Williams by the end of the year. He was a star in college at Washington, and in 2023 he had 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns. We'll see how quickly he adapts to the NFL and establishes a rapport with Williams, but he's a great Fantasy receiver to stash on your bench now, with the potential for great rewards down the road.
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Shakir will likely be my favorite Bills receiver to draft this year. While rookie Keon Coleman has more upside, and Curtis Samuel might be a favorite for offensive coordinator Joe Brady since the two were together in Carolina, I like the potential of Shakir in his third season. And his CBS Sports ADP of 115.8 is fantastic value for his upside. Shakir didn't do much for most of his sophomore campaign playing behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but Shakir stepped up at the end of the season when Davis was hurt and Diggs struggled. Starting in Week 18 when Davis was injured at Miami, Shakir had six catches for 105 yards on six targets. And then in two playoff games against Pittsburgh and Kansas City, Shakir had 10 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. Josh Allen trusts Shakir, and I expect him to set career highs in all receiving categories with Diggs (Houston) and Davis (Jacksonville) gone. Shakir might not be a star, but he can be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues this season.
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I'm hopeful that Williams can make a big leap in Year 3 because the first two seasons of his career have been disappointing. His rookie season in 2022 was slowed by his recovery from a torn ACL, and he played in only six games. Then 2023 started with his four-game suspension for gambling. But his role should expand in 2024, and Josh Reynolds (Denver) is now gone, opening up a starting spot (and 64 targets) opposite St. Brown. The Lions already have plenty of weapons with St. Brown, LaPorta, Gibbs and Montgomery, but Williams adds a speed element that could help Goff and the offense be more explosive. I love Williams at his current CBS Sports ADP of 118.1, and he has the upside to be a top-30 Fantasy receiver in all leagues in 2024.
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Other sleeper wide receivers to consider: Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr., Rashid Shaheed, Jahan Dotson, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Downs and Joshua Palmer
Ferguson is our poster child for waiting on a tight end with a late-round pick, and his CBS Sports ADP (108.1) makes him the No. 12 tight end off the board, which is perfect. Dak Prescott loves leaning on his tight end (see Jason Witten, Dalton Schultz and now Ferguson), and in eight seasons as the quarterback in Dallas, his tight end has been No. 2 in targets four times, including three seasons in a row with Dalton Schultz (2021-22) and Ferguson (2023). Ferguson should remain No. 2 in targets for the Cowboys this season behind CeeDee Lamb, and hopefully Ferguson will build on his production from last year when he had 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns on 102 targets. He scored at least 10.1 PPR points nine times, and his final game was the 48-32 wild-card loss to Green Bay when he had 10 catches for 93 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets. Don't count on Ferguson to be an elite Fantasy option this year, but he's a great low-end starter at a cheap cost.
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The addition of Smith as the offensive coordinator should be good for Freiermuth given what Smith did for the tight ends in Atlanta. And the trade of Diontae Johnson to Carolina should help Freiermuth as well. Start with Smith, who dedicated 174 of 508 targets (34.3 percent) to his tight ends with the Falcons in 2023, including 90 for Kyle Pitts and 70 for Jonnu Smith. We know Pitts never lived up to his enormous hype, but he also dealt with terrible quarterback play. The usage is what matters, and Freiermuth could be No. 2 on the Steelers in targets with Johnson gone, behind George Pickens. Johnson had 87 targets in 2023, and Freiermuth should see a huge bump from the 47 targets he had last season in 12 games. Freiermuth scored seven touchdowns as a rookie in 2021 and averaged 9.5 PPR points per game. He followed that up by averaging 9.3 PPR points per game in 2022, but he dropped to 7.5 PPR points per game last season. I'm hoping the addition of Smith, the loss of Johnson and consistent quarterback play from Russell Wilson will help Freiermuth get back on track. And by all accounts, Freiermuth is having a great offseason, making him an excellent late-round Fantasy option based on his CBS Sports ADP (145.3).
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Other sleeper tight ends to consider: Luke Musgrave, Hunter Henry and Ben Sinnott
