I've never written tiers before, but Adam Aizer asked me to handle them for our Fantasy Football Today podcast (INSERT LINK HERE). Since I already gave him the list, I thought it made sense to put them in a column as well. So here we go.
These are my wide receiver tiers prior to the start of training camp. These tiers can -- and likely will -- change prior to the end of August. But this is how I would draft these wide receivers in the middle of July.
And for context, this is based on PPR, as well as one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving. Hopefully, these tiers can help with any draft decisions you have to make this year.
Tier 1
CeeDee Lamb
Tyreek Hill
Justin Jefferson
Ja'Marr Chase
Amon-Ra St. Brown
All five of these guys are in position to be the No. 1 Fantasy receiver this year. Last season, Lamb (23.7), Hill (23.5), St. Brown (20.7), and Jefferson (20.2) all averaged at least 20 PPR points per game. And Chase played nine games with Joe Burrow (wrist) healthy, and Chase was averaging 20.1 PPR points per game with Burrow under center.
I would not be surprised to see all of these receivers drafted in the first six overall picks after Christian McCaffrey comes off the board at No. 1 overall. But all five of these receivers will get drafted in the first eight overall selections in PPR.
The receiver in this group with the biggest question mark is Jefferson with Kirk Cousins (Atlanta) gone and either J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold as the new quarterback in Minnesota. I'm hopeful that Jefferson performs with McCarthy or Darnold like he did with Nick Mullens last year over the final four games. Over that span, Jefferson averaged 22.1 PPR points per game.
Tier 2
A.J. Brown
Garrett Wilson
Puka Nacua
Marvin Harrison Jr.
You can also make an argument that Brown belongs in Tier 1. In two seasons in Philadelphia, Brown has 194 catches for 2,952 yards and 18 touchdowns on 303 targets. Only Hill (3,509) and Lamb (3,108) have more receiving yards than Brown in the past two seasons.
Wilson should benefit in a big way with Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) back, and hopefully, Wilson plays like he did in his rookie campaign in 2022 when Zach Wilson wasn't the quarterback. Garrett Wilson averaged 17.6 PPR points per game in seven outings with Joe Flacco or Mike White starting, including three games with at least 24 PPR points over that span.
Nacua should build off his impressive 2023 campaign when he set NFL rookie records for catches (105) and yards (1,486). The concern for Nacua is Cooper Kupp being healthy, and Nacua only averaged 15.7 PPR points per game in 12 games with Kupp. But Nuca also had six outings with at least 18.7 PPR points when Kupp was healthy.
I'm expecting Brown, Wilson, and Nacua to be drafted in Round 1, with Harrison coming off the board in early Round 2. I love the setup for Harrison as the go-to option for Kyler Murray, and he should be dominant in his rookie campaign.
Tier 3
Drake London
Chris Olave
Jaylen Waddle
Nico Collins
You can make a strong argument to combine Tiers 3 and 4 since all 10 receivers will likely be drafted from the middle of Round 2 to the end of Round 3 in some order. But I prefer the four receivers in Tier 3 to the rest because of either a breakout campaign coming (London and Olave) or them replicating close to their best seasons (Waddle and Collins).
London and Olave should be third-year breakouts in 2024. For London, the addition of Cousins and new Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson should finally unlock his potential. And Olave should benefit with new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, as well as a spike in targets this year.
Waddle battled injuries in 2023, but he should return to his 2022 level of production -- or better -- when he averaged 15.3 PPR points per game. And Collins might regress from his 17.4 PPR points per game in 2023 with Houston adding Stefon Diggs to a receiving corps that already included Tank Dell. But I still expect Collins to be the alpha for the Texans and play like a top-12 Fantasy receiver this season.
Tier 4
Davante Adams
Mike Evans
Brandon Aiyuk
Deebo Samuel
Michael Pittman
Cooper Kupp
Adams (32), Evans (32) and Kupp (31) make me nervous because of their age, but I'm not going to completely ignore them. Kupp is the only one who struggled with injuries last season, which is why I would only draft him in Round 4, but I would still settle for Adams and Evans in Round 3 if they make it there.
We'll see what happens with the 49ers and Aiyuk, but I expect him to remain in San Francisco this season. He's worth drafting in Round 3, along with Samuel, but both would likely benefit with a trade. Both would likely get more targets if separated (Aiyuk has never had more than 114 in a season and Samuel topped out at 121 in 2021), but they showed in 2023 they could both dominate with each scoring at least 15.6 PPR points per game.
As for Pittman, I like him as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver, and he should have the chance for 140-plus targets again. Hopefully, Anthony Richardson can help Pittman find the end zone more often (he's scored four touchdowns or less in three of four seasons and has a high of six in 2021), but he remains a candidate for 100-plus catches and 1,100-plus yards.
Tier 5
George Pickens
DK Metcalf
Tee Higgins
DeVonta Smith
D.J. Moore
Christian Kirk
Tank Dell
Stefon Diggs
This tier has several of my favorite receivers to target with Pickens, Metcalf, Higgins, Smith, Kirk, and Dell. I tend to avoid Moore and Diggs, but they belong in this range.
Moore could suffer with a crowded receiving corps in Chicago with the addition of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, along with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. And I expect Diggs to be the No. 3 receiver in Houston behind Collins and Dell, although he should be productive, just no longer elite. Diggs is also going to turn 32 in November.
Pickens should have a breakout third season with Russell Wilson now in Pittsburgh, as well as Diontae Johnson gone. And Metcalf should benefit in Seattle with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
I'm hopeful Higgins will have a huge year while trying to prove he should get a big contract next offseason, and hopefully Burrow stays healthy as well. And Smith should still be a productive second receiver for the Eagles behind A.J. Brown.
Kirk is probably my favorite receiver to draft this season based on his cost, and he should be the No. 1 option for the Jaguars with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones gone. And I love drafting Dell in his return from last year's broken leg. Dell has typically gone after Collins and Diggs in most drafts, and his value is fantastic since he could be the No. 1 receiver for the Texans this year.
Tier 6
Chris Godwin
Malik Nabers
Zay Flowers
Amari Cooper
Calvin Ridley
Terry McLaurin
Based on early average draft position data, this tier is all over the place. Nabers and Flowers go well ahead of this group, but I view both as high-end No. 3 receivers. I would love to draft both, but I'm not selecting either one before Round 5.
Godwin should benefit with his move back to the slot, and I would even consider drafting him as a Tier 5 receiver. I'm going to have a lot of stock in Godwin this year if he can be drafted after Round 6.
I'll only draft Cooper, Ridley, and McLaurin as No. 3 receivers in Round 6 or later. While I like all three, I have concerns about all of them. Cooper is now 30 and might have a contract issue in training camp. Ridley has to prove he's better than DeAndre Hopkins and develop a rapport with Will Levis. And McLaurin has to prove he can succeed with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who will rely on his legs to make plays as much as his arm.
Tier 7
Jayden Reed
Ladd McConkey
Marquise Brown
Diontae Johnson
Christian Watson
Rashee Rice
DeAndre Hopkins
There are two Packers and two Chiefs in this tier, and I would love to get at least one player from each of those receiving corps if possible. Watson could see his value rise if he makes it through training camp at 100 percent after battling hamstring issues last year. And Rice's potential suspension will determine what happens to him and Brown, as well as Xavier Worthy.
I'm excited about McConkey, who will hopefully step into Allen's role as the go-to target for Justin Herbert. Josh Palmer is also someone to target a little later, but I believe McConkey has more upside in his rookie campaign.
Johnson should be a nice surprise with his move to Carolina, and he should lead the Panthers in targets. And while Hopkins is 32 and now has to contend with Ridley, he still has the potential to be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Tennessee's revamped offense.
Tier 8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Keenan Allen
Rome Odunze
Courtland Sutton
Jameson Williams
I'm excited about Smith-Njigba heading into his sophomore campaign, and hopefully, he can earn a bigger role ahead of Tyler Lockett and be Seattle's No. 2 receiver behind Metcalf. Grubb's offense should be good for Smith-Njigba and help him improve on a quiet rookie campaign.
Allen is coming off an amazing season in 2023 where he averaged 21.6 PPR points per game and led all players at 11.5 targets per game. But he's 32, going to play with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and is joining a crowded receiving corps in Chicago with Moore and Odunze. I'm not planning to draft Allen unless he falls to Round 8 or later. And this is the same range that I would draft Odunze.
Sutton remains the No. 1 receiver for the Broncos, but he's headed for regression with his touchdowns after scoring 10 times last year. Hopefully, Bo Nix will continue to lean on Sutton in 2024. As for Williams, he could be a third-year breakout candidate this season after two disappointing campaigns in Detroit. But with Josh Reynolds gone, the opportunity is there for Williams to step up behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Tier 9
Jordan Addison
Keon Coleman
Brian Thomas Jr.
Xavier Worthy
Addison continues to fall in my rankings, and we'll see if he faces a suspension following his arrest in July on suspicion of driving under the influence. He also has concerns with the quarterback situation in Minnesota, and he's looking more like a No. 4 Fantasy receiver than a No. 3 option.
This is a heavy rookie tier, and Coleman could be the No. 1 receiver in Buffalo, where only Khalir Shakir returns from last year. While I'm excited about Shakir and Curtis Samuel, I would still draft Coleman first based on upside.
Thomas could also be a significant playmaker for the Jaguars as the No. 2 receiver behind Kirk. And I'm excited about Worthy as well, but he should open the season behind Brown and Rice (suspension pending). Still, being tied to Patrick Mahomes is a great thing for Worthy's upside.
Tier 10
Rashid Shaheed
Josh Palmer
Khalil Shakir
Curtis Samuel
Romeo Doubs
Shaheed and Palmer are two receivers who continue to rise in my rankings. Shaheed should be the No. 2 receiver in New Orleans behind Olave, and he has the potential to emerge as a top-30 Fantasy option this season. And while I like McConkey as the No. 1 Chargers receiver, it wouldn't be a surprise if Palmer is better. He's definitely the better value.
There's going to be a lot of debate over who is the best Bills receiver coming into the year. I would draft Coleman first, but Shakir and Samuel will likely be more reliable Fantasy options, especially early in the season. Shakir is the only receiver in Buffalo who has caught passes from Josh Allen in a game, and he stepped up last season when Gabe Davis went down in Week 18. But Samuel has a history with offensive coordinator Joe Brady from their time in Carolina, which gives him an edge.
Doubs feels like the forgotten receiver in Green Bay with all the hype going toward Reed, Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks. But Doubs remains a go-to option for Jordan Love and is entering his third season in the NFL. He also scored eight touchdowns and had nine games with 11 or more PPR points last year.
Tier 11
Jahan Dotson
Tyler Lockett
Dontayvion Wicks
Xavier Legette
Jakobi Meyers
Mike Williams
I have Wicks slightly behind Doubs in my rankings now, but that could change if Wicks continues to get more hype. He's one of my favorite late-round picks this season.
I'm also intrigued by Dotson with a late-round pick as he enters his third season, and hopefully, he develops a solid rapport with Daniels. Legette is also worth a late-round flier since he could be a solid contributor for the Panthers under new coach Dave Canales.
Lockett, Meyers and Williams don't carry much upside heading into the season, but that could change. Lockett has to hold off Smith-Njigba in Seattle's new offense, and Williams (ACL) will have to prove he's healthy since he's starting training camp on the PUP list.
Tier 12
Demario Douglas
Josh Downs
Roman Wilson
Troy Franklin
Jerry Jeudy
Adam Thielen
Quentin Johnston
Gabe Davis
Wan'Dale Robinson
Brandin Cooks
Rashod Bateman
Ja'Lynn Polk
This final tier is the receivers outside of the top 60 in my rankings, but I expect many of these guys to get drafted in PPR. I'll be curious to see which Patriots receiver goes first out of Douglas or Polk, and I'm excited to see how Douglas does in Year 2.
Downs is another sophomore receiver that I'm excited to see, especially with Richardson back at 100 percent. And I think Robinson has upside as a third-year receiver for the Giants.
I'd love to see things click for Johnston in his second year for the Chargers, but he'll be tough to trust. And rookies like Franklin and Wilson should emerge as the season goes on.
