How often have you made a lineup decision based on which defense a running back is facing? It might not matter for Saquon Barkley or even Alvin Kamara, but it might for one of the two-dozen or so other running backs who might not be considered a must-start.
How often have you made a Draft Day decision based on which defenses a running back will face over the course of the season? Maybe never.
Maybe you should.
I've long believed that matchups matter. To predict which matchups will be favorable versus unfavorable, I created a concept called the Projected Strength of Schedule, or PSoS. Using film analysis, study of scheme and coaching and of course an understanding of who's playing, I came up with a grade for every NFL team as it relates to their run defense and pass defense against running backs.
At a minimum, it will give you a potential tiebreaker when debating between two players in your drafts. At most, it's a warning sign to avoid certain players across the league.
If you're reading this, you're on the page that breaks down the PSoS for running backs. You'll find out about the players who have easy projected schedules, difficult projected schedules, and everyone in between. If you're interested in the methodology behind these numbers, you should read this.
For now, here's a look at how each offense's running backs rank in terms of PSoS, with 1 being the easiest and 32 being the toughest. There's a table for the whole season, the first four weeks of the season (who might get off to a hot start?!) and Weeks 15 through 17 (Fantasy playoffs).
Full PSoS rankings by position: QB | RB | WR | TE
You should also benefit from the in-season version of the Projected Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It's a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.
I'll highlight some players after these ranks so please remember to scroll all the way through.
Season-long PSoS for RBs
| IND | 1 | BUF | 17 |
| SF | 2 | NO | 18 |
| NYJ | 3 | MIN | 19 |
| LAC | 4 | WAS | 20 |
| SEA | 5 | KC | 21 |
| GB | 6 | MIA | 22 |
| NE | 7 | TB | 23 |
| LV | 8 | PHI | 24 |
| ATL | 9 | CLE | 25 |
| CHI | 10 | JAC | 26 |
| DET | 11 | BAL | 27 |
| CAR | 12 | CIN | 28 |
| LAR | 13 | DEN | 29 |
| HOU | 14 | PIT | 30 |
| TEN | 15 | DAL | 31 |
| ARI | 16 | NYG | 32 |
Weeks 1-4 PSoS for RBs
| MIA | 1 | GB | 17 |
| BUF | 2 | TEN | 18 |
| DET | 3 | NYG | 19 |
| SEA | 4 | LAC | 20 |
| WAS | 5 | SF | 21 |
| CLE | 6 | BAL | 22 |
| TB | 7 | NO | 23 |
| NYJ | 8 | DEN | 24 |
| ARI | 9 | LV | 25 |
| CHI | 10 | PHI | 26 |
| CIN | 11 | DAL | 27 |
| HOU | 12 | IND | 28 |
| LAR | 13 | MIN | 29 |
| PIT | 14 | NE | 30 |
| CAR | 15 | KC | 31 |
| JAC | 16 | ATL | 32 |
Weeks 15-17 PSoS for RBs
| IND | 1 | TEN | 17 |
| CIN | 2 | NO | 18 |
| NE | 3 | SEA | 19 |
| CAR | 4 | LAR | 20 |
| NYJ | 5 | BAL | 21 |
| SF | 6 | DAL | 22 |
| ATL | 7 | HOU | 23 |
| GB | 8 | PHI | 24 |
| CHI | 9 | DEN | 25 |
| LAC | 10 | BUF | 26 |
| ARI | 11 | WAS | 27 |
| JAC | 12 | DET | 28 |
| CLE | 13 | KC | 29 |
| TB | 14 | PIT | 30 |
| LV | 15 | MIA | 31 |
| MIN | 16 | NYG | 32 |
Biggest winners
- Jonathan Taylor: The Colts landed the easiest projected schedule for RBs as well as for the Fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15-17. Of note: Indy's run game will face some defenses I anticipate being tough early on in the Texans, Packers, Bears and Steelers. Taylor could still maul in those games and then take off to have a tremendous year. And just dropping this here for no particular reason: Trey Sermon is currently expected to be the backup RB there.
- Gus Edwards & Co.: The fourth-easiest projected schedule belongs to an offense with an improved offensive line and a run-focused playcaller. So whoever's the lead guy in L.A. figures to be helpful. Edwards seems like the most likely running back to fill that role with J.K. Dobbins (who's practicing at the start of training camp) right behind him.
- Kenneth Walker: Consider it a tiebreaker in Walker's favor that the Seahawks have a top-5 projected schedule for the season as well as the first four weeks. In 2023 Walker had 15 or more touches in 10 games and averaged 16.0 PPR points in them. He will get touches in easier matchups.
- Josh Jacobs: It's another tiebreaker scenario for Jacobs. The Packers have the sixth-easiest overall projected schedule and are inside the top-10 for Weeks 15 through 17. There is a prickly start for Jacobs that Fantasy folks will have to deal with but by Week 5 (if not Week 3) he should be rolling.
Biggest losers
- Devin Singletary: The Giants run game landed the worst projected schedule for what I think is the third straight year. Might have to do with who's in their division. Or in the case of Weeks 15 through 17, it might have to do with taking on the Ravens, Falcons and Colts. Either way, I wouldn't trust Singletary very much.
- Ezekiel Elliott & Co.: If the Cowboys make a big splash at running back then I might have to revisit this. But as things stand now any running back in Dallas will have trouble with the second-toughest projected schedule for RBs. There is no easy stretch either.
- Najee Harris: I'm not a huge fan of the Steelers' schedule which includes the tough AFC North. They've got the third-toughest projected schedule, and it could mean tough things for their primary runner, which at this point is Harris. Jaylen Warren is a little different because he'll face defenses a little more as a receiver which negates some of the concerns that Harris otherwise has.
- Broncos RBs: Denver has the fourth-toughest projected schedule overall and are bottom-10 to begin the year and to end the year. They're probably going to mix and match backs all season long anyway. I'm going to pass on them entirely.
Draft them, stream them, then dump them
- Raheem Mostert: Can Mostert go touchdown-crazy for a second straight year? I kind of doubt it. But I also doubt you can find a run game with an easier schedule than Miami's through the first few weeks. Mostert should thrive, and by that point we'll know just how rampant De'Von Achane will be. We'll also know the Dolphins schedule gets harder after their Week 5 bye.
- Brian Robinson: The Commanders have the fifth-easiest projected RB schedule early on. After that things get rough, which means things will get rough for Robinson. He's a perfect sell-high candidate after he scores at Arizona in Week 4.
- Jerome Ford: Assuming Nick Chubb is brought back slowly (or stays on the PUP list to begin the season), Ford figures to have a good chance to get some numbers in easy matchups through Week 4. By then Chubb might be ready to come back just as things get tougher for the Browns run game.
Don't draft them, trade for them
- Aaron Jones: Last season we learned (or re-learned) that Jones is brittle and could miss time, but we also learned/re-learned just how awesome of a runner he is when he's healthy. If Jones gets off to a slow start thanks to a tough early projected docket, the move might be to acquire him on the cheap.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: I didn't draft Stevenson last year because of his schedule. This year I might opt to trade for him -- the Patriots have a top-10 projected slate for their run game and top-three when it comes to the end of the season, but it comes after they play the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets and 49ers to open the year.
