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USATSI

It's Sleeper Season (or "SLPR SZN"? Is that a thing?)! Every year we want the best values in drafts and we need players who can outperform their average draft positions. I typically consider sleepers to be mid-to-late round picks, and I usually distinguish a sleeper from a breakout by saying: "Sleepers win you weeks, breakouts win you leagues." This season, however, I'm going to use a different definition because I have a couple of high-end sleepers that will go in the first six rounds of most drafts. With that said, here are eight players that I think people are sleeping on. Some of these sleepers will win you some weeks, but a few may be league-winners. 

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears

Williams checks in at QB15 in CBS ADP. We are talking about the best quarterback prospect in years who will be throwing to a fantastic trio of wide receivers. Additionally, Williams rushed for 380 or more yards in two of his three college seasons, and he scored double-digit rushing TDs in two straight seasons at USC. If Caleb Williams achieves just 70% of those rushing totals, he'll crush his ADP.

The receiving corps gives him a floor (that rhymed!). His ability to run makes his upside fun (rhymed!). You should feel comfortable with Williams as your starting Fantasy QB in Week 1. However, I do like to pair him with a solid veteran QB like Brock Purdy or Tua Tagovailoa just in case Williams struggles as a rookie or doesn't run much. You can wait until Round 9 or later to start drafting QBs and end up with Williams and a reliable veteran QB. 

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns

Watson averaged about 20.5 Fantasy points per game in his five healthy games last season (6 points per passing TD). That's not bad! That's a borderline QB1 and it's sleeper material. He did that while completing just 61.4% of his passes and averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. That's not good! Still, Watson showed that he can be a viable Fantasy option with relatively lousy passing numbers because he can still approach 450 or more rushing yards. 

Now imagine that Watson regains some of his Texans' form and improves as a QB. Maybe Jerry Jeudy helps him get there. Watson is a low-end starter even without those improvements, but if he can play better he could be one of the steals of Fantasy drafts. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Here's one of the high-end sleepers I'd like to highlight. I do not understand Kamara's ADP. It's an insult! This guy was a top 5 RB on a per-game basis in 2023, yet he is RB18 in ADP and being drafted around the 4/5 turn. I get the concerns: He is 29 years old, he is inefficient and has now gone three straight seasons without a carry of more than 30 yards. Yikes! However, in those last three seasons, Kamara has been RB6, RB13, and RB4 per game in PPR. In 0.5 PPR, he has been RB5, RB14, and RB4 per game. As long as he continues to be among the leaders in receptions among RBs, he is a slam-dunk must-start RB. 

Kamara was RB4 per game with only six TDs in 13 games. Even with Taysom Hill stealing goal-line touches and raising the blood pressure of Fantasy managers everywhere, Kamara could easily have a higher TD rate in 2024, particularly as a receiver (only 1 TD catch last season). I know Kamara is risky, but so is just about every other non-QB being drafted in this range. You can't tell me there is a RB with more upside than Kamara being drafted in the same range or later.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

Like Alvin Kamara, Mostert was an elite Fantasy performer in 2023 who is being drafted nowhere near last year's finish. Mostert was the No. 3 RB per game in all formats despite only 25 catches in 15 games, and while his ADP is RB21 on CBS, it's RB28 on FantasyPros and Draft Sharks. Sure, I would take De'Von Achane ahead of Mostert, but why are there nearly six rounds separating them based on ADP on multiple websites?

Unlike Kamara, I don't think Mostert has any chance of repeating his 2023 per-game production. I actually think his ADP is reasonable, but still a touch too low. The reason I consider him a sleeper is that if you want a piece of the Dolphins backfield, his value is much better than Achane's. Fantasy managers are too high on Achane and they are sleeping on Mostert.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

There are three Charbonnet scenarios that could unfold: 

1. A sip of Charbonnet: He is basically just a handcuff that you can't start unless Ken Walker is injured

2. A glass of Charbonnet: He carves out a bigger role and is a bye week flex option

3. A bottle of Charbonnet: He overtakes Walker and becomes the starting RB. 

In the first scenario, taking a late-round flier on Charbonnet still makes sense because he is one of the handcuffs that I would believe in as a must-start RB if given the opportunity. I think the Seahawks would probably turn Charbonnet loose and he could be a league-winner.

In the second scenario, that would be pretty annoying and possibly leave us with two flex RBs, but Charbonnet would obviously be the better value in the Seahawks backfield. Let's hope this lame-o scenario does not play out.

I don't think the third scenario is happening, but Walker is one of the NFL's most boom-or-bust RBs on a carry-by-carry basis. He has ranked near the bottom of the position in percentage of carries for 0 or negative yards in each of his first two seasons in the league. Will the Seahawks look for more consistency and give Charbonnet more work? 

Regardless of how it unfolds, I think Charbonnet is worth the risk. The Seahawks used a second-round pick on him, so they may want to see what they have. He played ahead of Walker on third downs last season and I would expect that to continue. While I'm drafting Charbonnet as a guy who probably won't help me without a Walker injury, I recognize there are ways he could earn more playing time even if Walker stays on the field. 

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Another high-end sleeper and a ridiculous value! ADP would suggest that Fantasy managers are willing to give Ja'Marr Chase a pass for 2023, but not Higgins. Not even close. Higgins was WR14 in ADP last season, but he is WR30 right now. What has changed? In my opinion, not much. I see him as a borderline top-15 WR. 

Believing in Higgins requires a lot of excuse making. I am really good at making excuses, so here we go. I'll chalk 2023 up to injuries to both Higgins and Joe Burrow. By the time Burrow started looking like himself, Higgins got hurt and ended up playing a normal snap share only once with an effective Burrow. BAM! I just absolved Higgins of all blame for his 2023 season, so now let's make some excuses for 2022!

In 2022, Higgins played 26% or fewer of the snaps in three games. In his 13 healthy games, he averaged 16.6 PPR Fantasy Points. In 2021 (no excuses required for this season), Higgins averaged 15.7 PPR Fantasy Points per game. Basically, when he was healthy in 2021 and 2022, Higgins performed like a top 15 WR. That's more or less how I value him, and that's why he is arguably my favorite value in 2024.

Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Let's keep this simple and look at the sample sizes for Josh Palmer when playing without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams or both: 

2022: 7.8 targets per game; 12.4 PPR Fantasy Points per game

2023: 6.9 targets per game; 10.8 PPR Fantasy Points per game

The targets are good enough, the production is meh. There is no reason Palmer can't improve on his Fantasy production, but even if it stays the same he is a steal. Palmer is currently not a top 50 WR in ADP. Let's work together to change that!

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Good Fantasy TEs often come from the later rounds of your drafts or from free agency. At this position, it's mostly about targets. You'll rarely see a TE finish top 5 at the position without being first or second on his team in targets, and Freirmuth feels like a solid bet to finish second in targets on the Steelers. More importantly, I pretty much hate the TE position after the top 10 or so. If you don't have Jake Ferguson or someone better, you're in trouble. But Freiermuth could be a decent streamer this season. He no longer has to deal with target hog Diontae Johnson and is getting an obvious QB upgrade this season. 

And there's this: Arthur Smith's offenses have ranked top 8 in TE target rate in all five of Smith's seasons as offensive coordinator or head coach. 

And there's THIS: After I wrote this, I read Heath Cummings's sleepers story and he said a lot of the same things about Pat Freiermuth. So I've got that going for me.