Some people like playing Fantasy football into Week 17. Some people like running with scissors or poking bears, too.
I'm not here to judge.
There's an element of randomness inherent in Fantasy sports at all times, but it is only heightened in Week 17, with teams resting starters, giving young guys extra reps, and letting nagging injuries heal up at the end of the season. Playing a whole season only to have some random backup get a huge workload in Week 17 because the starters had already clinched a playoff spot is one of the worst feelings in Fantasy sports, but some of us insist on playing through the end of the season.
Just as a reminder, here are some of the stat lines we saw in Week 17 of the 2015 season:
- Ryan Mallett and Kellen Moore led the league in pass attempts -- Moore had 435 yards and three touchdowns
- Mike Gillislee, David Cobb, and Donald Brown were all in the top six in carries
- Maxx Williams, DuJuan Harris and Brice Butler all had 10-plus targets
The most important thing in Week 17 is figuring out who is and isn't going to play -- and knowing which teams might be resting their starters. As any Fantasy player knows, we can't predict what coaches are going to do, but we can at least look at what each team has at stake in Week 17 and try to figure out what they might do from there.
Week 17 is unpredictable, to be sure, but we don't have to fly blind.
Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
What is at stake: Nothing. Both teams have been eliminated
Tyler Eifert was placed on IR Monday, and A.J. Green is not expected to play, which tells you what you need to know about Cincinnati. Don't be surprised if Jeremy Hill, nursing a sore knee, gets some extra rest. Rex Burkhead played more snaps than him in Week 16.
Kenneth Dixon's role has been inconsistent but growing in recent weeks, and this might be an opportunity for the Ravens to see what they have in him. Or, they might keep the pattern going, with Dixon splitting work with Terrance West.
Houston vs. Tennessee
What is at stake: Nothing. The Texans are locked into a first-round home game.
Lamar Miller's chances of playing a big role in Week 17 probably took a big hit Sunday, as they won without him to clinch a playoff spot. Miller sat out with an ankle injury in Week 16, and probably won't be forced back in during a meaningless game, so Alfred Blue could be looking at another 20-plus touch game.
With Marcus Mariota out, this doesn't look like a game with much appeal from the Titans' perspective, but maybe Derrick Henry gets a bit more work with DeMarco Murray seeming to run out gas late in the season.
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
What is at stake: The Buccaneers can still get in with a win, but they'll need plenty of help.
The Panthers have nothing to play for and the Buccaneers would need a miracle later in the day in order for a win to matter for them. Still, there is intrigue here, after Doug Martin's surprise benching last week. Jacquizz Rodgers will likely see a healthy workload yet again.
Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
What is at stake: Nothing. Both teams have been eliminated.
Everyone in Jacksonville is playing for a job in 2017, so it would be a surprise if they benched any of their starters. The Colts might look to give Frank Gore and Andrew Luck fewer reps in a meaningless game, especially after seeing the rash of injuries in Week 16.
New England vs. Miami
What is at stake: Seeding. Patriots can lock up No. 1 seed with win. Dolphins can avoid Pittsburgh in Wild Card Round with win.
The Patriots are guaranteed a bye, so the only question is whether they can lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Dolphins are locked into the playoffs as well, but would probably prefer to face the Texans and Tom Savage in the Wild Card Round rather than the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger.
Also, despite Bill Belichick's posturing about not resting starters, Brady played fewer than half of the Patriots' snaps in Week 17 two years ago. If the Patriots go up or down by a few scores early, Brady might find an early seat on the bench.
Chicago vs. Minnesota
What is at stake: Nothing. Both teams have been eliminated.
Matt Barkley might be playing for a job somewhere. Sam Bradford might be playing for a job in Minnesota. Adrian Peterson might try to play... for some reason. It would be a surprise if Peterson got much work, but he will probably try to play.
Buffalo vs. New York Jets
What is at stake: Nothing. Both teams have been eliminated.
With Bryce Petty hurt and Ryan Fitzpatrick's time in New York almost certainly done, we might actually get to see Christian Hackenberg this week. There isn't much reason to be excited about that, given the length to which the Jets have gone to not play the rookie, but the Jets might at least get a glimpse at the future.
Don't be surprised if the Bills give LeSean McCoy an extra series off this week, with Mike Gillislee handling himself so well this season. McCoy has enjoyed a huge bounceback season, and few teams rely on the run as much as the Bills, so keeping him healthy matters for the long run. Tyrod Taylor's job is by no means assured for next season, so he certainly has a lot to gain with another solid game following Week 16.
Dallas vs. Philadelphia
What is at stake: Nothing. Dallas locked up the No. 1 seed last week, Eagles are eliminated.
Jerry Jones has gone out of his way to say the Cowboys won't rest their starters, but we'll see about that. Monday's game against the Lions may see a full workload for Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, but it wouldn't be a total shock if we saw Tony Romo and Darren McFadden in extended cameos in Week 17.
As for the Eagles, Ryan Mathews' season came to an end in Week 16, as did Kenjon Barner's, leaving them awfully thin at running back following Wendell Smallwood's season-ending injury a few weeks back. Former do-it-all Oregon standout Byron Marshall could have a big role in Week 17 as a result.
Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
What is at stake: Nothing. Steelers clinched the division in Week 17, Browns were eliminated around Week 1.
We could see Cody Kessler back in the starting lineup for the Browns, with Robert Griffin banged up again, and it wouldn't be a surprise if we saw Landry Jones take some snaps for the Steelers, given Ben Roethlisberger's struggles staying healthy over the last few years.
New Orleans vs. Atlanta
What is at stake: A win would clinch a first-round bye for the Falcons.
The Saints didn't have much to play for this time last year, and Brees still threw the ball 42 times in a win over the Falcons. In a similar spot two years ago, he had 38 pass attempts in a meaningless Week 17 win. If history is any indication, we'll see plenty of him this week.
New York Giants vs. Washington
What is at stake: Giants are playing for seeding, Redskins can still sneak in with a win and some help.
The Redskins need some help to get in, so don't expect an early exit from Kirk Cousins like last year's Week 17. This is one of the few games on the schedule with implications for both teams, so approach it like normal.
Arizona vs. Los Angeles
What is at stake: Nothing. Both teams have been eliminated.
With 126 yards, David Johnson could become the third back in the last five years to top 2,200 yards from scrimmage. That's exciting! With 55 yards, Todd Gurley could reach 900 rushing yards. That's... less exciting! There isn't much to say here, because the Cardinals are unlikely to sit their veterans --they don't exactly have a ton of young guys to try out -- and the Rams are already build around young players.
Oakland vs. Denver
What is at stake: Oakland can win the AFC West and a first-round bye with a win over an eliminated, no-longer-defending Super Bowl champion.
This game is a lot more intriguing than it might otherwise be, because Matt McGloin has to try to win against the toughest defense in the league to secure a first-round bye. Both teams will likely play their starters all game long.
Kansas City vs. San Diego
What is at stake: If the Raiders slip, the Chiefs can steal the AFC West with a win over a team that just lost to the Browns.
We'll see if Melvin Gordon tries to play this week, after missing the last two with hip and knee injuries. The Chargers have little to play for in what has become a lost season, but Rivers still attempted 35 passes in Week 17 of a 4-12 campaign a year ago, so they should give the Chiefs a fight. Neither team is likely to rest many key names.
Seattle vs. San Francisco
What is at stake: A win alone won't get the Seahawks a bye. They still need plenty of help.
The Seahawks want as many games in front of the 12th Man as possible, so you can bet they'll be going for the bye as hard as they can. As for the 49ers, Chip Kelly might be coaching for his job, and Colin Kaepernick might be playing for a chance to stay in the NFL, so there is incentive to win here, even with nothing else to play for. We should see plenty of the starters in both sides here, though the 49ers are entirely capable of being blown out, so the scoreboard may dictate things differently.
Green Bay vs. Detroit
What is at stake: The NFC North championship game. There's a reason this is the lone primetime game.
This game isn't quite "Win or Go Home," but it could be depending on how the early games play out. If the Packers lose, they likely fall behind a victorious Washington team, though they could be locked into a playoff spot even if they lose -- if the Buccaneers and Redskins fall. Still, a home playoff game is at stake for both teams, so don't expect either to take their foot off the pedal.