Each week in this space, I try to give you an early look ahead to what is coming in next week's Fantasy Football rankings and projections. This week, we start with an official Byenado warning. Any player that is playing in Week 12 is likely to be ranked higher than you would expect because so many are out.
At quarterback, we'll be without Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers. At running back, we're replacing Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, James Cook, Chase Brown, and Travis Etienne. Wide receiver may even be worse with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Brian Thomas, and Khalil Shakir all on bye. I've got some stories for you below about rankings, risers, and fallers, but the biggest story about Week 12 is that anyone who is active is far more likely to be moving up in the rankings than down.
The Chiefs are moving way up
The Chiefs play the Panthers in Week 12, so we may get to turn back the clock and see a high-powered Chiefs offense. The Panthers defense has surrendered the third-worst NY/A (7.1) through the air, and they've also been below average on the ground as well, giving up 4.6 yards per carry. They've allowed the seventh-most Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (21), the most to running backs (25.6), and the second-most to tight ends (16.1). Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy should all be ranked as starters in a three-receiver league.
Hope for the Bears passing game
In his first game without Shane Waldron, Caleb Williams gave Bears fans some legitimate reason for hope. Caleb Williams averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which was his third-best mark of the season, and ran for a career-high 70 yards. I'll give Williams efficiency boosts across the board for Week 12. Rome Odunze earned a 32% target share, and I'll be boosting him from 21% to 24% in Week 12. It's possible both Odunze and D.J. Moore sneak inside my top 30 wide receivers this week.
Daniel Jones is out in New York
Generally speaking, I react to things that happened on Sunday, but Monday morning, we started getting reports that Brian Daboll was making the switch from Jones to Tommy DeVito. This is likely motivated by the fact that the Giants' season is over, and they don't want to be on the hook for Jones' injury guarantees in 2025. In other words, Jones is likely done in New York for good, not just for 2024. In 2023, DeVito started six games and was better than Jones as a passer, averaging more yards per attempt, more yards per game, and throwing more touchdowns and fewer interceptions. DeVito also had a 17% sack rate and averaged just 4.2 NY/A, so don't get too carried away. Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy will be starts in Week 12 against Tampa Bay, but I will be watching closely to see what kind of impact DeVito has on them.
It seems to be over for Raheem Mostert
Mostert had three carries for negative two yards in Week 11. This was in a game the Dolphins ran the ball 26 times. De'Von Achane had a 65% rush share, and Jaylen Wright had more rush attempts than Mostert. I understand, with Achane's injury history, if you want to hold Mostert on your bench, but even in a week with six teams on a bye, he's not even a good flex. Jaylen Waddle may have a hard time cracking my top 48 wide receivers, also. Waddle hasn't scored double-digit Fantasy points in a game since Week 1.
It's not over for Javonte Williams
If you want hope for Mostert, look how quickly things turned around for Javonte Williams. A week after seeing one carry and hearing everyone gush about Audric Estime, Williams led Broncos running backs with 13 touches for 87 yards and a touchdown, scoring 18.7 PPR Fantasy points. While I will caution that Sean Payton could always change his mind again next week, Williams looks like a good number two running back in Week 12 against a bad Raiders defense. Don't be surprised if Williams projects as a top-20 guy.
We're holding Taysom Hill through his bye week
Hill had one of the top Fantasy performances of the year in Week 11 with 138 yards rushing, eight catches for 50 yards, and an 18-yard completion against the Browns. He had a 25% rush share in this game and a 34% target share. That's elite for a running back or a wide receiver, for a tight end, it is unheard of. You shouldn't expect this big of a role coming out of the bye, but I am boosting Hill's rush share from 16% to 20% and his target share from 10% to 13%, which is going to make him a top-five tight end in the Week 13 rankings.
Mark Andrews is back in limbo
Isaiah Likely returned in Week 12 for the Ravens and led the team in receiving with four catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Mark Andrews finished fifth on the team in targets (3), catches (2), and yards (22). Because of the Week 12 Byenado, I'm sure everyone who has Andrews is starting him, but this performance puts him squarely on the bubble moving forward. Andrews has one game all season with more than five targets, and that was the game Likely missed.