We are rapidly approaching a changing of the guard at the tight end position, at least that's what the rankings would tell you. Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid are all 24 years old or younger, and all three rank inside the consensus top five tight ends. Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson are both 25 or younger and rank as top 10 options. Brock Bowers may just be the best tight end prospect ever. The youth are coming hard for the crown. The question is whether Travis Kelce is ready to give it up last year.
Most of the evidence in the statistics suggests that Kelce's decline has begun. His 8.1 targets per game was his lowest mark since 2016. His 10.6 yards per reception was the lowest mark of his career. Both his aDOT and his YAC were at four-year lows. He even posted his lowest touchdown total since 2019. The truth is that Kelce earned fewer targets last year and did less with them. When that happens at 34, you probably shouldn't bet on a rebound at 35.
The counterpoint is in that playoff game log. Kelce caught 32 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns on his way to hoisting the Lombardi trophy for the third time in five years. He did this against three of the toughest defenses against tight ends last year. And he'll face one of them on Thursday night, the Ravens. The whole Fantasy world will be watching to see which Kelce we get.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 1:
Colby Parkinson is an interesting streamer in deeper leagues.
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Numbers to Know
112 -- Trey McBride was on pace for 112 catches in his 10 starts last year.
77% -- Travis Kelce's 77% snap rate in 2023 was his lowest since 2014.
8.3% -- Sam LaPorta scored on 8.3% of his targets last year. He'll need an increase in volume or efficiency to make up for the touchdown regression that is coming.
15.1 -- T.J. Hockenson was averaging 15.1 PPR FPPG before he tore his Achilles. He's worth drafting in Round 10 if you have an IR spot to stash him.
5.2 -- David Njoku averaged just 5.2 targets per game with Deshaun Watson. He averaged 8.8 in his other 11 games.
2.26 -- George Kittle led all tight ends at 2.26 yards per route run in 2023.
Fant has been banged up this preseason, but he is expected to play. He has a revenge game against a Broncos defense that gave up the most points to opposing tight ends last year. He also has a new offensive coordinator who I expect will focus the team's tight end targets more singularly than Shane Waldron did in the past.
Playing at Ford Field has been a lot like hitting at Coors Field in baseball. You should expect a bunch of points. The Rams and Lions have the highest over/under of Week 1 and Parkinson should be the lead tight end with Tyler Higbee out for Week 1. If you're streaming tight end you're basically hoping for a touchdown and you might as well aim for the highest-scoring game of the weekend if you're hoping for a touchdown.
McBride is my number one tight end for both the week and the season. He's priced as the third-most expensive tight end on the slate, 20% cheaper than Sam LaPorta. The Bills have traditionally been a tough matchup for tight ends, but they won't have Matt Milano, who has made a big difference in the past.
Schultz was second on the Texans in red zone targets last year, behind only Nico Collins. Despite missing two and a half games, he saw 19% of the Texans' red zone targets in the regular season and added another touchdown in the Wild Card game. He's not a cash game play, but of the tight ends that cost less than $6,000 on FanDuel, he's the most likely to reach the end zone twice.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
