We are rapidly approaching a changing of the guard at the tight end position, at least that's what the rankings would tell you. Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid are all 24 years old or younger, and all three rank inside the consensus top five tight ends. Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson are both 25 or younger and rank as top 10 options. Brock Bowers may just be the best tight end prospect ever. The youth are coming hard for the crown. The question is whether Travis Kelce is ready to give it up last year.

Most of the evidence in the statistics suggests that Kelce's decline has begun. His 8.1 targets per game was his lowest mark since 2016. His 10.6 yards per reception was the lowest mark of his career. Both his aDOT and his YAC were at four-year lows. He even posted his lowest touchdown total since 2019. The truth is that Kelce earned fewer targets last year and did less with them. When that happens at 34, you probably shouldn't bet on a rebound at 35.

The counterpoint is in that playoff game log. Kelce caught 32 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns on his way to hoisting the Lombardi trophy for the third time in five years. He did this against three of the toughest defenses against tight ends last year. And he'll face one of them on Thursday night, the Ravens. The whole Fantasy world will be watching to see which Kelce we get. 

Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 1:

Week 1 TE Preview

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Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:

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T.J. Hockenson TE
MIN Minnesota • #87
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
We aren't suggesting any of the Vikings tight ends as streamers
Tyler Higbee TE
LAR L.A. Rams • #89
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Colby Parkinson is an interesting streamer in deeper leagues.
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Numbers to Know
  • 112 -- Trey McBride was on pace for 112 catches in his 10 starts last year.
  • 77% -- Travis Kelce's 77% snap rate in 2023 was his lowest since 2014.
  • 8.3% -- Sam LaPorta scored on 8.3% of his targets last year. He'll need an increase in volume or efficiency to make up for the touchdown regression that is coming.
  • 15.1 -- T.J. Hockenson was averaging 15.1 PPR FPPG before he tore his Achilles. He's worth drafting in Round 10 if you have an IR spot to stash him.
  • 5.2 -- David Njoku averaged just 5.2 targets per game with Deshaun Watson. He averaged 8.8 in his other 11 games.
  • 2.26 -- George Kittle led all tight ends at 2.26 yards per route run in 2023.
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Matchups that matter
Noah Fant TE
SEA Seattle • #87
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs DEN SEA -6 O/U 42

OPP VS TE

12th

PROJ PTS

6.9

TE RNK

16th

2023 Stats

REC

32

TAR

43

REYDS

414

TD

0

FPTS/G

4.3
Mike Gesicki TE
CIN Cincinnati • #88
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs NE CIN -8.5 O/U 40.5

OPP VS TE

8th

PROJ PTS

6.4

TE RNK

18th

2023 Stats

REC

29

TAR

45

REYDS

244

TD

2

FPTS/G

3.8
Evan Engram TE
JAC Jacksonville • #17
Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ MIA MIA -3.5 O/U 49.5

OPP VS TE

24th

PROJ PTS

12.1

TE RNK

6th

2023 Stats

REC

114

TAR

143

REYDS

963

TD

4

FPTS/G

13.5
Colby Parkinson TE
LAR L.A. Rams • #86
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ DET DET -3.5 O/U 51

OPP VS TE

7th

PROJ PTS

3.7

TE RNK

23rd

2023 Stats

REC

25

TAR

34

REYDS

247

TD

2

FPTS/G

3.6
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Waiver Wire Targets
Week 1 Streamers (TE Preview)
Noah Fant TE
SEA Seattle • #87
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs DEN SEA -6 O/U 42

OPP VS TE

5th

TE RNK

16th

ROSTERED

11%

2023 Stats

REC

32

TAR

43

REYDS

414

TD

0

FPTS/G

4.3
Fant has been banged up this preseason, but he is expected to play. He has a revenge game against a Broncos defense that gave up the most points to opposing tight ends last year. He also has a new offensive coordinator who I expect will focus the team's tight end targets more singularly than Shane Waldron did in the past.
Colby Parkinson TE
LAR L.A. Rams • #86
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ DET DET -3.5 O/U 51

OPP VS TE

1st

TE RNK

23rd

ROSTERED

4%

2023 Stats

REC

25

TAR

34

REYDS

247

TD

2

FPTS/G

3.6
Playing at Ford Field has been a lot like hitting at Coors Field in baseball. You should expect a bunch of points. The Rams and Lions have the highest over/under of Week 1 and Parkinson should be the lead tight end with Tyler Higbee out for Week 1. If you're streaming tight end you're basically hoping for a touchdown and you might as well aim for the highest-scoring game of the weekend if you're hoping for a touchdown.
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DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Trey McBride TE
ARI Arizona • #85
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ BUF BUF -6.5 O/U 48.5

OPP VS TE

31st

PROJ PTS

10.4

TE RNK

2nd

2023 Stats

REC

81

TAR

106

REYDS

825

TD

3

FPTS/G

10.7
McBride is my number one tight end for both the week and the season. He's priced as the third-most expensive tight end on the slate, 20% cheaper than Sam LaPorta. The Bills have traditionally been a tough matchup for tight ends, but they won't have Matt Milano, who has made a big difference in the past.
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Dalton Schultz TE
HOU Houston • #86
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ IND HOU -2.5 O/U 49

OPP VS TE

11th

PROJ PTS

9.9

TE RNK

14th

2023 Stats

REC

59

TAR

88

REYDS

635

TD

5

FPTS/G

10
Schultz was second on the Texans in red zone targets last year, behind only Nico Collins. Despite missing two and a half games, he saw 19% of the Texans' red zone targets in the regular season and added another touchdown in the Wild Card game. He's not a cash game play, but of the tight ends that cost less than $6,000 on FanDuel, he's the most likely to reach the end zone twice.
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Heath's Projections

My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.