There has been plenty of drama in Minnesota this week. First Adam Thielen called out the team's inability to pass, then Kirk Cousins apologized to his No. 1 receiver. It seemed like maybe the drama was over until Stefon Diggs missed practice on Wednesday and reports surfaced that he would like a trade. Diggs was back at practice on Thursday and says he didn't request a trade. But even if all the drama is over, the underlying issue still exists: The Vikings passing woes.
A big part of this is an issue I warned you about before the season. Mike Zimmer fired John DeFilippo last year because DeFilippo wouldn't run the ball enough. Zimmer gave Kevin Stafanski a three-game audition, the Vikings ran the ball on nearly 50% of their offensive plays, and Stefanski was given the job in 2019.
Stefanski clearly got the message, because Minnesota has actually run the ball even more in 2019, with 119 rush attempts to 99 pass attempts. Even Brian Schottenheimer would tell you that's a very run-heavy scheme.
It follows a pretty clear pattern too. The Vikings won by 16 in Week 1 and only attempted 10 passes. The won by 20 in Week and threw the ball just 21 times. In Week 2 and Week 4 they were chasing the score and attempted a normal number of passes, 32 and 36 respectively. In the four games they've won since Stefanski took over Cousins has averaged 20 pass attempts.
Now let's not get confused. They're not winning because they're running. They're running when they're winning. Which brings us to Week 5.
The Vikings face the Giants, who have been the worst pass defense in the league, even with one good performance against Washington. If you want to buy into the idea of a "squeaky wheel game", the Vikings should have no trouble getting both Thielen and Diggs touches. At the same time, they're a five-point favorite in a game with an over-under of 43.5. From what we've seen in Stefanski's seven games calling plays this is exactly when the Vikings go run-heavy.
I'm projecting Cousins for 27 attempts in Week 5. That would be his second-highest mark in a win under Stefanski. It's also not likely enough to support a good game from both Thielen and Diggs. This year 41% of Cousins attempts have gone to his two best receivers. Last year it was 51%. Even at that inflated mark, that would only be 14 targets to split up between the two. At Thielen's career rate of 9.3 yards per target (he's only at eight this year), he'd be around 65 yards with seven targets. Diggs has been less efficient and would project for 55 yards at his career rate of 8.1 yards per target.
Of course that's if they split targets evenly, but generally Thielen gets a bigger piece of the pie. For that reason, I have Thielen projected as a low-end No. 2 receiver while Diggs is more of a low-end flex option. The truth is either of them could be start-worthy if they score, but the odds of scoring a touchdown are cut by the run-heavy approach as well.
Cousins may have apologized to Thielen, but the apology we need is one from Stefanski to Fantasy managers who drafted Vikings receivers.
Week 5 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 5 at this time. Here's what it means:
If Adams can't go in Week 5, Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be a top-25 receiver and Geronimo Allison would be a low-end flex. At quarterback, I'd be very worried about Aaron Rodgers.
|
Landry suffered a concussion after putting up his best day as a Brown. If he's out this week, I'd expect a monster performance from Odell Beckham.
|
Kirk suffered a lower leg injury on Sunday and will likely miss Week 5. I'll be all in on Larry Fitzgerald and slightly interested in KeeSean Johnson.
|
Stills pulled a hamstring and the Texans receiving corps finally doesn't look quite as crowded. Let's see if Will Fuller or Keke Coutee can take advantage of the extra opportunity.
|
Inman did a nice job filling in for Mike Williams before he left Week 4 with an injury. Hopefully Williams returns in Week 5.
|
Ross has been placed on injured reserve. Auden Tate has a great opportunity against a bad Cardinals defense.
|
Numbers to Know
- 47.81% - Robby Anderson's share of the Jets air yards. If Sam Darnold returns in Week 5, he'll be an interesting No. 3 receiver.
- 18.2 - Average targeted air yards for Demarcus Robinson. Even after Week 4's disappointment, he's someone you can plug in as a flex if you're looking for upside.
- 46 - Targets for Cooper Kupp, the second-most in the league. He's had at least nine targets in every game and looks like a true No. 1 receiver.
- 41 - Combined targets this season for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Week 4 was a Diggs week, but it's going to be terribly frustrating t figure out which Vikings' receiver to start each week.
- 16 - Targets for Auden Tate the past two weeks.
- 318 - Air yards for Keenan Allen. That's not just the most in the NFL, it's nearly 10% more than second place (Mike Evans).
- 4.5 - Yards per target for Trey Quinn. That's the lowest among receivers with at least 20 targets.
Matchups that matter
The Panthers are allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. They've faced some great receivers and held most of them in check. You should probably try to avoid the Jaguars pass catchers.
| ||
Davis and A.J. Brown made a big splash in Week 4, but if you're adding them it's only as a stash. You shouldn't start them against Buffalo.
| ||
Washington has allowed 31.5 Fantasy points per game to receivers, the second most in the league. Gordon is my favorite Patriot receiver in Week 5, but they're all in play against this matchup.
|
Waiver Wire Targets
This is more of a short-term play, but Tate is going to face the Arizona Cardinals as the No. 2 receiver in the Cincinnati offense. He has 16 targets over the past two games with Ross in the lineup, and this should be a high-paced, high-scoring game. I like Tate as a top-25 receiver in Week 5.
| |
Johnson has now seen 12 targets in his first two starts with Mason Rudolph and he's turned them into nine catches for 129 yards and two scores. He's crushing the value of Smith-Schuster in the role that JuJu occupied last year. There's clear chemistry between him and Rudolph, and Johnson looks like a solid flex or No. 3 receiver moving forward.
| |
It's easy to forget because of their bye week, but Deebo Samuel is the only 49ers receiver with double-digit targets this season. He's surpassed Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin by catching 78% of his targets and averaging 13.5 yards per reception. The 49ers should have to throw a bit more against the Browns on Monday Night Football, and Samuel could have a breakout performance in prime time.
|
I want to add both Davis and Brown after their big Week 4 performances, but you can't start them against the Bills. Because of that matchup, they are best viewed as stashes in leagues where you don't have Week 5 bye concerns.
| |
I want to add both Davis and Brown after their big Week 4 performances, but you can't start them against the Bills. Because of that matchup, they are best viewed as stashes in leagues where you don't have Week 5 bye concerns.
|
DFS Plays
Keenan Allen has one disappointing game and his price drops back below $8,000. I can't help but to keep playing him. He's the top scoring wide receiver by both FanDuel and DraftKings scoring this season yet he's nowhere close to the top-priced player. I suppose that could be because of the matchup with Chris Harris and the Broncos, but Allen has plenty of success against this defense on his resume. And they haven't exactly been the same old Broncos defense anyway.
| ||||
Fitzgerald should see even more targets without Christian Kirk in a game that I expect will be high-scoring. He's priced like a No. 3 receiver this week and I expect him to perform like a No. 1. The Bengals are allowing nearly 10 yards per target to opposing receivers.
| ||||
Brown has struggled the past two weeks but there's no way a receiver with 300 yards receiving already should be priced like this. Even in his struggles the past two weeks he's seen 16 targets. I'll bet on that type of volume, especially when it's low-priced with low ownership.
| ||||
Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | Non-PPR FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Keenan Allen | 14.34 | 21.11 |
12 | 2 | Michael Thomas | 12.13 | 19.61 |
2 | 3 | Tyler Lockett | 13.56 | 19.59 |
3 | 4 | Julio Jones | 13.34 | 19.53 |
4 | 5 | T.Y. Hilton | 13.31 | 19.48 |
10 | 6 | Tyler Boyd | 12.31 | 19.18 |
7 | 7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 12.80 | 19.15 |
6 | 8 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12.84 | 19.04 |
5 | 9 | Chris Godwin | 13.05 | 19.03 |
9 | 10 | Cooper Kupp | 12.43 | 18.97 |
8 | 11 | Odell Beckham | 12.47 | 17.89 |
13 | 12 | Amari Cooper | 11.85 | 17.46 |
11 | 13 | Sammy Watkins | 12.17 | 17.05 |
16 | 14 | Allen Robinson | 10.81 | 16.52 |
22 | 15 | Julian Edelman | 10.35 | 16.41 |
27 | 16 | Sterling Shepard | 9.92 | 16.38 |
15 | 17 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 10.89 | 16.09 |
21 | 18 | Emmanuel Sanders | 10.38 | 15.84 |
14 | 19 | Mike Evans | 11.24 | 15.75 |
24 | 20 | Robert Woods | 10.22 | 15.52 |
20 | 21 | Courtland Sutton | 10.48 | 15.32 |
18 | 22 | Adam Thielen | 10.51 | 15.04 |
19 | 23 | Marquise Brown | 10.49 | 15.03 |
17 | 24 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10.53 | 14.98 |
23 | 25 | Alshon Jeffery | 10.23 | 14.90 |
25 | 26 | Brandin Cooks | 10.18 | 14.63 |
32 | 27 | Calvin Ridley | 9.51 | 14.23 |
28 | 28 | D.J. Chark | 9.80 | 14.23 |
30 | 29 | Auden Tate | 9.52 | 14.03 |
26 | 30 | Demarcus Robinson | 10.00 | 14.00 |
31 | 31 | Tyrell Williams | 9.51 | 13.86 |
33 | 32 | Philip Dorsett | 9.22 | 13.77 |
34 | 33 | John Brown | 8.93 | 13.77 |
41 | 34 | Golden Tate | 8.27 | 13.50 |
29 | 35 | Josh Gordon | 9.66 | 13.49 |
35 | 36 | Jarvis Landry | 8.90 | 13.37 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 5 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
