Fantasy Football Week 5 Wide Receiver Preview: Can you trust Stefon Diggs and the Vikings passing game?

There has been plenty of drama in Minnesota this week. First Adam Thielen called out the team's inability to pass, then Kirk Cousins apologized to his No. 1 receiver. It seemed like maybe the drama was over until Stefon Diggs missed practice on Wednesday and reports surfaced that he would like a trade. Diggs was back at practice on Thursday and says he didn't request a trade. But even if all the drama is over, the underlying issue still exists: The Vikings passing woes. 

A big part of this is an issue I warned you about before the season. Mike Zimmer fired John DeFilippo last year because DeFilippo wouldn't run the ball enough. Zimmer gave Kevin Stafanski a three-game audition, the Vikings ran the ball on nearly 50% of their offensive plays, and Stefanski was given the job in 2019. 

Stefanski clearly got the message, because Minnesota has actually run the ball even more in 2019, with 119 rush attempts to 99 pass attempts. Even Brian Schottenheimer would tell you that's a very run-heavy scheme. 

It follows a pretty clear pattern too. The Vikings won by 16 in Week 1 and only attempted 10 passes. The won by 20 in Week and threw the ball just 21 times. In Week 2 and Week 4 they were chasing the score and attempted a normal number of passes, 32 and 36 respectively. In the four games they've won since Stefanski took over Cousins has averaged 20 pass attempts.

Now let's not get confused. They're not winning because they're running. They're running when they're winning. Which brings us to Week 5. 

The Vikings face the Giants, who have been the worst pass defense in the league, even with one good performance against Washington. If you want to buy into the idea of a "squeaky wheel game", the Vikings should have no trouble getting both Thielen and Diggs touches. At the same time, they're a five-point favorite in a game with an over-under of 43.5. From what we've seen in Stefanski's seven games calling plays this is exactly when the Vikings go run-heavy. 

I'm projecting Cousins for 27 attempts in Week 5. That would be his second-highest mark in a win under Stefanski. It's also not likely enough to support a good game from both Thielen and Diggs. This year 41% of Cousins attempts have gone to his two best receivers. Last year it was 51%. Even at that inflated mark, that would only be 14 targets to split up between the two. At Thielen's career rate of 9.3 yards per target (he's only at eight this year), he'd be around 65 yards with seven targets. Diggs has been less efficient and would project for 55 yards at his career rate of 8.1 yards per target. 

Of course that's if they split targets evenly, but generally Thielen gets a bigger piece of the pie. For that reason, I have Thielen projected as a low-end No. 2 receiver while Diggs is more of a low-end flex option. The truth is either of them could be start-worthy if they score, but the odds of scoring a touchdown are cut by the run-heavy approach as well. 

Cousins may have apologized to Thielen, but the apology we need is one from Stefanski to Fantasy managers who drafted Vikings receivers. 

Week 5 WR Preview

The following players are not being projected to play Week 5 at this time. Here's what it means:

• 47.81% - Robby Anderson's share of the Jets air yards. If Sam Darnold returns in Week 5, he'll be an interesting No. 3 receiver.
• 18.2 - Average targeted air yards for Demarcus Robinson. Even after Week 4's disappointment, he's someone you can plug in as a flex if you're looking for upside.  
  
• 46 - Targets for Cooper Kupp, the second-most in the league. He's had at least nine targets in every game and looks like a true No. 1 receiver. 
• 41 - Combined targets this season for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Week 4 was a Diggs week, but it's going to be terribly frustrating t figure out which Vikings' receiver to start each week. 
• 16 - Targets for Auden Tate the past two weeks.
• 318 - Air yards for Keenan Allen. That's not just the most in the NFL, it's nearly 10% more than second place (Mike Evans).
• 4.5 - Yards per target for Trey Quinn. That's the lowest among receivers with at least 20 targets. 

So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 5 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.