It's been a long time since Josh Allen was not ranked as a top-five quarterback in our consensus weekly rankings. As of Tuesday evening, he sits at QB8 and none of us have him ranked as a top-four guy. I'm not sure we have him ranked low enough.
The first problem for Allen is a volume problem. He does not have more than 30 pass attempts in a game this season and he only has more than five rush attempts in two games. Last year he averaged 34 pass attempts and 6.5 rush attempts per game. Some of his volume concerns come from the fact that the Bills are running 55.8 plays per game, the second-lowest mark in the league. I would expect some regression there, to the tune of a 10% increase. The bigger problem is that Joe Brady is running a run-heavy scheme like he did last year, and Allen's share of the rush attempts is down. I'm not sure that changes.
The second problem for Allen is his lack of wide receivers. This will be partially addressed if Khalil Shakir is able to return, but even so, it's a bad set of weapons. Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have combined for 68 targets this year. They're all averaging less than seven yards per target. Keon Coleman has been much better than that, but he's barely earning three targets per game.
These two factors have led us to a place where Allen is averaging 189 passing yards per game, his worst mark since his rookie year. In Week 6 he faces a Jets defense that is allowing 161 passing yards and 7.8 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. I wouldn't blame you for sitting Allen, especially if you can get my top waiver add below.
You'll find my projections for every quarterback on the slate over on Sportsline.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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6 -- Patrick Mahomes has six passing touchdowns and six interceptions through five weeks. He's going into his bye week and I would understand if you drop him in one-quarterback leagues.
77.1% -- Jayden Daniels still leads the NFL with a 77.1% completion percentage.
20% -- Anthony Richardson's 20% off-target rate is the worst mark in the league.
Cousins threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns last week and now faces a Panthers defense that has allowed at least 20 Fantasy points to four of the five quarterbacks they have faced. he should be added and started pretty much everywhere.
Jones has multiple pass touchdowns in three of his last four games and just put one of his best games on film in Week 5 against Seattle. The Bengals defense has been up and down against QBs but they've given up more than 30 Fantasy points to two of the last three they've faced. If Jones gets Malik Nabers back we may rank him as a top-12 option.
Maye was named the Patriots starter but he remains in the stash section because of a tough matchup in Week 6 against the Houston Texans. His rushing ability could make him a borderline top-12 guy in the right matchups and the Patriots play Jacksonville in Week 7, which is the right matchup.
I'm not sure they could price Jackson high enough to keep me off him. He projects for 20% more Fantasy points than any other QB on the roster. There's always the risk that Derrick henry scores three touchdowns and ruins Jackson's Fantasy day, but there's also the upside that Jackson can produce five touchdowns in a given game. He and Daniels facing off should be the game of the week.
Derek Carr and Caleb Williams both put up 27 Fantasy points against this defense on fewer than 30 pass attempts. The only QB who didn't score 20 against them was Justin Herbert, who only threw 20 passes. Still, I expect Cousins' roster rate to be low because so much of the field will be on Jackson and Daniels.
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 6 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 6. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
