After Friday practice reports we've changed our expectations for several wide receivers. We have Davante Adams and Desean Jackson returning from multi-week absences and T.Y. Hilton on the shelf for Week 9 with a calf injury – and possibly longer. Here's how I'm handling all three situations.
Adams is an automatic start whenever he's healthy and certainly against a mediocre Chargers defense. He's a top-10 receiver in every format and Aaron Rodgers gets a small boost as well. The other receivers in Green Bay lose opportunity, but we weren't starting them anyway.
Jackson is a low-end No. 2 receiver with enormous upside and almost no floor. Unfortunately, with all the byes you may not have two better options than him on your roster. I don't love what his return means for Alshon Jeffery, but it should help Carson Wentz. Wentz is a top-10 quarterback this week.
The possibility of losing Hilton hurts even more because there isn't an obvious winner in the receiving corps. Zach Pascal led the team in receiving in Hilton's last absence but Parris Cambell had more targets in that game. They're both boom-or-bust flexes now, but I like Pascal significantly more.
Thankfully there are better options below if you need to replace Hilton.
Week 9 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 9 at this time. Here's what it means:
Chris Conley should have a big opportunity against a bad pass defense.
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I don't love any of his replacements.
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Numbers to Know
- 18 - Average depth of target for Darius Slayton, the highest amongst receivers with at least 25 targets.
- 1,011 - Air yards for Mike Evans this season, the most in the NFL.
- 33% - Target share for DeAndre Hopkins in Week 8. The loss of Will Fuller puts Hopkins back where he's been in the past.
- 49% - Terry McLaurin's share of Washington's air yards this season. I can't start him against Buffalo, but he's a good buy low.
- 14.39 - Yards per target for Stefon Diggs, best in the league. Regression is coming but I still like Diggs more than Thielen this week.
- 20.4 - Yards per reception for Chris Conley this season. That will also regress, but Conley is in play for Week 9.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Amendola has received 19 targets over the past two weeks and he's turned them into 16 catches for 200 yards. This week he gets a Raiders defense allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt and the sixth-most Fantasy points to opposing receivers. There is no running game in Detroit now, and Amendola is one of the biggest beneficiaries.
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Both Parker and Preston Williams are in play this week against the Jets. Parker has at least 11 PPR Fantasy points in four straight games and seems to be Ryan Fitzpatrick's preferred option.
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Johnson has played three complete games with Mason Rudolph. He's scored 14.2, 19.7, and 19.4 Fantasy points in those three games. He's a solid No. 3 receiver this week against the Colts and I may still be too low on him.
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Could easily be the No. 1 receiver and is available almost everywhere.
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Conley has received five targets in four games this season. He's topped double digits in all four games and topped 20 PPR points in two of them. As long as Dede Westbrook is out Conley is a very good play.
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I'm still worried about what happens to Dorsett once Mohamed Sanu gets fully acclimated but he's a fine flex this week against the Ravens.
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I still like Williams' upside more than Parker's and prefer him as a stash but Parker is better as a No. 3 option this week. They both should be added.
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It seems like a long shot, but I'll stash Brown for another week or two.
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DFS Plays
Moore has once again struggled to get into the end zone this season, but he has 27 targets over his past three games and he only has two games this season below 12 PPR points. This is a very tight week of pricing and Moore's low price stands out as the best value at receiver.
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If anything, I think Brown has been a bit unlucky. He's a borderline top-12 receiver in yards per game and he's been remarkably consistent, but only because he's had so few booms. Expect more touchdowns and Fantasy points from Brown in the second half.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | NON PPR FPTS | PPR FPTs |
2 | 1 | Chris Godwin | 14.03 | 20.18 |
8 | 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12.14 | 20.15 |
7 | 3 | Julian Edelman | 12.38 | 20.04 |
1 | 4 | Mike Evans | 14.23 | 19.64 |
3 | 5 | D.J. Chark | 13.75 | 19.16 |
4 | 6 | Amari Cooper | 13.72 | 19.02 |
10 | 7 | Allen Robinson | 12.06 | 18.95 |
9 | 8 | Davante Adams | 12.07 | 18.12 |
14 | 9 | Golden Tate | 11.34 | 17.68 |
6 | 10 | Stefon Diggs | 12.56 | 17.54 |
5 | 11 | Kenny Golladay | 12.63 | 17.40 |
12 | 12 | Tyler Lockett | 11.73 | 17.23 |
13 | 13 | John Brown | 11.49 | 16.95 |
11 | 14 | Tyreek Hill | 11.83 | 16.92 |
15 | 15 | Adam Thielen | 11.32 | 15.96 |
18 | 16 | Michael Gallup | 10.71 | 15.72 |
22 | 17 | D.J. Moore | 10.04 | 15.67 |
17 | 18 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10.74 | 15.56 |
19 | 19 | Courtland Sutton | 10.46 | 15.34 |
20 | 20 | Odell Beckham | 10.20 | 15.02 |
16 | 21 | Tyrell Williams | 10.75 | 14.81 |
29 | 22 | Keenan Allen | 9.09 | 14.37 |
21 | 23 | DeSean Jackson | 10.10 | 14.15 |
26 | 24 | Danny Amendola | 9.25 | 13.92 |
25 | 25 | Marquise Brown | 9.37 | 13.77 |
34 | 26 | Alshon Jeffery | 8.50 | 13.69 |
27 | 27 | Marvin Jones | 9.15 | 13.57 |
23 | 28 | D.K. Metcalf | 10.03 | 13.53 |
28 | 29 | DeVante Parker | 9.09 | 13.14 |
30 | 30 | Jarvis Landry | 8.95 | 13.05 |
24 | 31 | Robby Anderson | 9.49 | 13.04 |
32 | 32 | Curtis Samuel | 8.71 | 12.80 |
39 | 33 | Diontae Johnson | 8.10 | 12.43 |
31 | 34 | Zach Pascal | 8.84 | 12.41 |
47 | 35 | Christian Kirk | 6.93 | 12.31 |
44 | 36 | Jamison Crowder | 7.54 | 12.20 |
37 | 37 | Mike Williams | 8.18 | 12.14 |
36 | 38 | Preston Williams | 8.20 | 12.14 |
33 | 39 | Chris Conley | 8.54 | 12.00 |
38 | 40 | Philip Dorsett | 8.14 | 11.93 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 9 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
