We've spent a lot of time talking about upside while reviewing the wide receiver position for 2020 Fantasy football drafts this week, and I've gotta be honest, that's the fun part of all this. When things go right is when Fantasy football is at its most fun, and we'd sure love to see everything go right this year.
But that's not how it works. Things will go wrong; they always do. Sometimes you can't see it coming — T.Y. Hilton lost his starting quarterback just a few weeks before the start of the season, after many drafts had already gone down. Or when A.J. Green's 6-8 week absence from an ankle injury last preseason turned into a 20-plus week, season-long absence. Those kind of outcomes can't be planned for or foreseen.
But there are plenty of times when you can see it coming, and that's what we're here to help you with. The Fantasy Football Today team gave you their sleeper and breakout picks for wide receiver earlier this week, but now it's time to look out for downside. Our bust picks aren't guaranteed to fall flat, but we're trying to identify red flags that may trip your season up.
Before we get to who Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch are looking to avoid on Draft Day, here are a few extra bust alerts to watch out for:
- Chris Godwin/Mike Evans: Well, if I'm going to express my doubts about Tom Brady, I've gotta go on record as being at least a little bit concerned with Godwin and Evans. I've yet to draft Evans, while I passed on Godwin to take D.J. Moore in this week's .5 PPR mock, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. It's not that I think either will be so bad they ruin your season, but I do think the prospect of playing with a 43-year-old quarterback who switched teams this offseason for the first time ever makes them quite a bit more risky than the wide receivers around them. I could see things going really wrong for the Bucs, ala the 2015 Broncos.
- DK Metcalf: Metcalf was one of the most pleasant surprises of the very impressive 2019 rookie class, and the expectation is he's going to take another step forward this season. I'm not quite so sure. For one thing, I'm still pretty sure Tyler Lockett is the best receiver here, and the primary slot receiver has been the top target in this offense for years. In Fantasy Pros ADP, Metcalf is currently going right ahead of Robert Woods, Stefon Diggs, DeVante Parker, Terry McLaurin and D.J. Chark, and I'd argue all have more upside for 2020.
And, if you want more on the wide receiver position, check out Part One of our wide receiver preview podcast, and subscribe to Fantasy Football Today for all the help you need during draft season:
Jamey Eisenberg's WR Busts
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My biggest concern for Hopkins is the target share. He's had at least 150 targets in each of the past five seasons, and in the past two years with Deshaun Watson, Hopkins has received at least 30 percent of the team's total. In looking at the Cardinals last year, Larry Fitzgerald led the team with 109 targets, and Christian Kirk was right behind at 108, although he missed three games due to an ankle injury. Those two remain in Arizona, and although their targets should decline with Hopkins on the roster, it might not be by much. So now the question becomes if Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will be throwing more after he attempted 542 passes as a rookie in 2019. Our projections at CBS Sports have him at 555 attempts, which seems realistic. A 30% share of the targets would be 166 this season from Murray. That would be the third-most targets of Hopkins' career (he had 192 in 2015 and 175 in 2017), and I don't expect that to happen. I like Hopkins a lot. But he's no longer a top-five Fantasy receiver now that he's with the Cardinals.
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I'm not ready to buy back in on Beckham being a top-tier Fantasy option again. He struggled in 2019 with the Browns as he again battled injuries. While he didn't miss time, he had a career-low 64.7 yards per game and scored just four touchdowns while not appearing to have a great rapport with Baker Mayfield on the field. The Browns added another significant weapon on offense with Austin Hooper, and new coach Kevin Stefanski wants to run the ball given the offense he oversaw in Minnesota. Jarvis Landry (hip) also is expected to be fine this year, meaning Beckham has plenty of teammates who also want the ball, including Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I'm fine with Beckham in Round 4 in all leagues, but I expect most Fantasy managers will reach for him in Round 3. That could be a pick you regret in 2020 — just as you did in 2019.
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Dave Richard's WR Busts
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For most wide receivers, 8.3 targets per game is great. For Beckham, it was a career-low in 2019, and he could be headed for even fewer in 2020. The Browns added Austin Hooper to their passing game, still have Jarvis Landry to take targets away and own the best 1-2 punch at running back in the entire league. Pair that with an offense that figures to be more conservative (and definitely better engineered), and Beckham's upside is shaky. It's great he's entering the season healthy, but he's ended each of his past three years with injuries and hasn't even had 1,100 yards or more than six scores in any of them. There's just too much risk to confidently take him in Round 3.
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The only quarterback Allen has ever known in the NFL is Philip Rivers. He's gone. If Rivers was replaced by a quality veteran arm, Allen would probably be good to go. But it's Tyrod Taylor (at least to start the year), and that's unsettling. The last time Taylor took the field as a starter, he completed 49.4% of his throws and was wholly inefficient with the Browns. He also led only one receiver to over 700 yards in three years as a starter for the Bills. And even if (when?) Taylor is replaced by rookie Justin Herbert, Allen still figures to deal with uneven play. Given the quarterback issues, it's a longshot for Allen to hit 1,000 yards for the fourth straight year.
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Heath Cummings's WR Busts
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Because running backs are going so early, you really have to look more at where the receivers are being drafted relative to one another. Hopkins is currently the fifth receiver off the board, and that's terrifying to me. Last year's 7.8 yards per target was the second-lowest mark of Hopkins' career, and that matters because he figures to see a serious reduction in targets. Kliff Kingsbury runs a spread offense, and targets will be spread around between Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and Kenyan Drake. If you give Hopkins 140 targets at his career efficiency, you're looking at 1,148 yards and seven scores. And there's no guarantee he matches his career efficiency with a less experienced quarterback.
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Count me out on the Johnson hype. He was a mediocre prospect with mediocre college production, and his rookie year wasn't all that special either. At best he'll be the No. 2 behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, but he has extra competition this year with the additions of Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool. There is no justification for drafting him before Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks or Marvin Jones.
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Ben Gretch's WR Busts
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It's not really fair to call Thielen a bust, but I don't typically draft him at this price. We know the Vikings want to be a low-volume passing team, although it wouldn't be surprising if game script forced them to throw a bit more in 2020. Still, Thielen will be 30 this year, is coming off soft tissue injuries last season, and his path to upside resides in dominating targets and his offense throwing more than expected. If I'm going to stomach team volume concerns, I'd look at younger, frequently cheaper options like A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs, both of whom I'd argue have more upside.
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Sanders is going pretty late to be a bust pick, but he's the wide receiver whose ADP I have the biggest issue with. No Saint other than Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas has hit 75 targets in a season since Kamara was drafted three seasons ago. As if that target concentration didn't make being a viable third weapon precarious enough, Jared Cook established himself behind those two with a solid run when healthy on 65 targets last season. Sanders posted fewer than 45 receiving yards in 13 of 20 games across two teams last year, and is a 33-year-old who is only a year and a half removed from an Achilles injury. Competing with Cook for No. 3 looks, I don't see the floor or the ceiling to justify his 10th-round ADP.
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So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.
