After Week 1 I told you I wasn't adjusting projections much for efficiency, mostly just for volume. Week 2 showed us that not all the volume information we gained in Week 1 was good information. You'll see updates on Jerome Ford and Jaxon Smith-Njigba that confirm that. I'll note that I am starting to make small adjustments to efficiency as well as volume in Week 2. I am also starting to look at small adjustments to team level data as well. Two weeks is still a very small sample size, but it's also more than 10% of the Fantasy season.
Like Week 1, the biggest adjustment in Week 2 comes from a quarterback injury that happened before Sunday. Let's start there.
The Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa
We don't know how long Tagovailoa will be out but as on Monday morning we know we aren't projecting him to play in Week 3. We'll see Skylar Thompson, who made three starts in 2022 but left one of those games early. In a Week 18 win over the Jets he threw for 152 yards and no pass catcher scored double-digit Fantasy points. In a playoff loss to the Bills, Thompson threw for 220 yards, Tyreek Hill led the team with 15 targets and 13 PPR Fantasy points. Not great.
All told, Thompson threw 105 passes in 2022, with 20 going to Hill and 15 to Waddle. Perhaps most notably, 25 went to running backs. On Thursday night we saw four of his 14 passes go to De'Von Achane. I am projecting Achane as a top-three running back, but that could fall a little if Raheem Mostert returns. I am also projecting Hill as a top-12 wide receiver, even if it's terrifying. Waddle is the big loser, falling all the way outside of my top 40. Like the Packers receivers, I do not want to start Waddle with a backup quarterback
Jerome Ford is not actually a feature back
In Week 2, Ford wasn't even a lead back; that was D'Onta Foreman. Ford handled just seven of the team's 22 rush attempts. He also saw just two of the team's five running back targets. This comes a week after he handled 79% of their running back opportunities. This is a devastating turn of events for anyone starting Ford and it's extremely confusing for anyone trying to project running back touches in Cleveland last week. This is especially true because Ford turned his seven rush attempts into 64 yards while Foreman ran 14 times for 42 yards. I'm still projecting Ford to lead the team in Week 3, but I'm not near as excited about starting him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still alive
Tyler Lockett led the Seahawks in receiving in Week 1 but he was an afterthought in Week 2. Smith-Njigba had a career day with 12 catches for 117 yards on 16 targets. The first thing this tells us is that the Seahawks' target volume may not be predictable on a week-to-week basis. With regards to Smith-Njigba it tells us we need to think twice before we bench him again. He's right back in the boom/bust WR3 conversation and Lockett falls back into the desperation flex range. All three Seahawks receivers project between 18 and 23 percent target share, but as we've seen the past two weeks, it won't be that consolidated on a weekly basis.
The Packers are going even more run-heavy than expected with Malik Willis
Green Bay was one of the few teams I had projected for more rush attempts than pass attempts in Week 2. I had no idea what was coming. The team ran the ball 53 times for 261 yards. Malik Willis set a career-high with 122 yards passing on just 14 attempts. No Packer had more than three catches. As expected, Josh Jacobs is the only Packer you can start on a weekly basis. But don't drop Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. One other note, you should probably start your running backs against the Colts.
We might have a Michael Pittman problem
I mostly shrugged off Pittman's bad Week 1. It was a bad matchup and Anthony Richardson only attempted 19 passes. It's harder to shrug off Week 2, when Pittman was targeted on seven of Richardson's 34 attempts and only caught three of them for 21 yards. Richardson has not been accurate on the types of throws Pittman thrives on, and Pittman had a bad drop himself. Pittman's projected catch rate is down to 59% in my Week 3 projections, which is a big problem for a guy who relies on big catch numbers. He's no better than a WR3 in any format. That won't get better when Josh Downs returns.
J.K. Dobbins is indeed back
The Start of the Week from Jamey Eisenberg rushed for 131 yards and a score and scored 20 Fantasy points. He's now averaging 9.8 yards per carry for the season and more than six yards per carry for his career. It's remarkable that he's able to return to this level after multiple major leg injuries, but before those injuries we viewed Dobbins as one the best rushers in the league. That's exactly what he looks like now. Keep starting him.
Derek Carr might be this year's surprise QB1
For the second consecutive week, Derek Carr looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He's thrown 39 passes this season for 443 yards and five touchdowns. He's completed 76.9% of his passes and he's averaging 11.36 yards per pass attempt. It was easy to ignore when it was against the Panthers. After he lit up the Cowboys, we need to take him and Rashid Shaheed seriously. Carr and the Saints are getting a boost in efficiency this week, and Carr may just be in the QB1 conversation. This is the one team where I am mostly ignoring volume information because they have not had a competitive game yet.
Jameson Williams is a focal point of the offense
I was a little bit cautious after Week 1, but Williams now has 20 targets in two weeks and looks close to a must-start wide receiver. I have boosted him to a 20% target share in Week 3. That has to come from somewhere, and it looks like it's coming mostly from Sam LaPorta. LaPorta now has six catches for 58 yards in his first two games combined. The tight end position has been a disaster as a whole, so there's not much you can do about LaPorta losing target share to Williams.
Hunter Henry is a starting Fantasy tight end
This is a low bar with the way the position has performed but after Week 2 Henry is sitting at a 31.9% target share. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt came from Cleveland, where Kevin Stefanski has always had a big role for tight ends in the passing game. That history combined with the lack of certainty in the Patriots receiving corps makes Henry an appealing option. There will be down weeks, as seen in Week 1, but there are very few tight ends we can't say that about. Henry projects top 10 in Week 3.
Target share up for grabs in Los Angeles
Puka Nacua was placed on injured reserve. Cooper Kupp left in a walking boot. Tyler Higbee isn't eligible to return yet. Someone is going to have to catch passes for the Rams. The top candidate at wide receiver is Demarcus Robinson, but Tyler Johnson isn't far behind him. Expect Kyren Williams to get a boost, like he did in the second half of Week 2. The one thing we'll say for sure is that we do not want to start Matthew Stafford.
Chiefs without Isiah Pacheco?
Pacheco left the stadium in a walking boot on crutches. This will make Carson Steele and Samaje Perine two of the most popular waiver wire pickups unless we get a surprisingly positive report on Monday or Tuesday. My initial projection is that Steele handles the majority of the rushing work and Perine sees most of the running back targets. I would also expect an increase in pass volume over the first two weeks. Steele should be the top priority, but we would not expect him to be as successful as Pacheco; early projections have Steele as a high-end flex.
