In the realm of the technical and literal, where no one ventures by choice, there is no such thing as a hopeless team in February. Today, though, we make no time for the literal. The royal we are here to talk about which teams will enter the 2016 season with no legitimate designs on contention. While it can’t be guaranteed on pain of death that the teams to follow won’t be of consequence this year, it can almost be guaranteed on pain of death that the teams to follow won’t be of consequence this year.
The good news for the baseball generalist is that we’re in an age of tremendous parity, and the fact that one-third of the league makes the postseason means that very few teams can be dismissed before position players even report. So consider the wretched squads to follow to be outliers -- miserable, miserable outliers.
Without further throat-clearing, here are the six (six!) teams that, it says here, won’t contend in 2016 (we'll be getting a big assist from the SportsLine preseason playoff odds) …
Braves
2015 record: 67-95
SportsLine preseason 2016 playoff odds: 0 percent
As is the case with most teams on this Ledger of Misfortune, the Braves are in the midst of a deep rebuild. Our own Mike Axisa says that rebuild is going quite well. Those efforts, however, will not bear fruit in 2016. Gone from last year's 95-loss model are Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller, and Cameron Maybin, among others. It also wouldn't be a surprise to see the Braves flip Ender Inciarte before this year's non-waiver trade deadline. In the near-term, the young pitching will be inconsistent, and the offense will be among baseball's worst. Another 90-loss season is very likely in the offing.
Phillies
2015 record: 63-99
SportsLine preseason 2016 playoff odds: 0.1 percent
For years, the Phillies badly needed to tear it down, and that's finally happened. J.P. Crawford should arrive for good at some point in 2016, and that will provide a glimpse of the brighter future to come. In the here and now, though, the Phillies are threats to lose 100 games for the first time since 1961. To sum it up, this is a team that will trot out Jeremy Hellickson as its No. 2 starter. A team that trots out Jeremy Hellickson as its No. 2 starter does not contend, ipso facto.
Brewers
2015 record: 68-94
SportsLine preseason 2016 playoff odds: 0.2 percent
The Brewers' ongoing rebuild is progressing nicely, but 2016 could be a "bottoming out" year. Since just prior to the 2015 non-waiver deadline, the Brewers have dealt away variously productive veterans like Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Gerardo Parra, Jonathan Broxton, Neal Cotts, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jean Segura, and Khris Davis. Jonathan Lucroy may be the next to go. Those deals have helped restock the Brewers' base of young talent, and the future is a promising one in Milwaukee. In 2016, though, we may be talking about the worst team in baseball. Jimmy Nelson, Opening Day starter? That's a thing that could happen. Given that the Brewers play an unbalanced schedule in the tough NL Central, I'll take the over on 94 losses in 2016.
Reds
2015 record: 64-98
SportsLine preseason 2016 playoff odds: 0 percent
Unlike the prior teams fated to non-contention, the Reds' teardown, in my opinion, isn't going very well. They will, however, have 2016 lousiness in common with the Braves, Phillies, and Brewers. It was, as you can see, a 98-loss team a season ago, and now they're without the productive likes of Todd Frazier, Mike Leake, and Aroldis Chapman. The Reds also, of course, parted with Johnny Cueto leading up to last year's deadline. In a division that also houses the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates, 0 percent playoff odds sounds about right.
Padres
2015 record: 74-88
SportsLine preseason 2016 playoff odds: 0 percent
Last year, new GM A.J. Preller punted defense in favor of right-handed power, and the experiment yielded a three-game decline relative to 2014. Over the winter, the Padres lost Justin Upton, their best position player, to free agency, and the bullpen has suffered the losses of Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit, and Shawn Kelley. To put a finer point on it, Melvin Upton Jr. figures to be this club's primary center fielder, and Yangervis Solarte may be batting third for them. In the same division, the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks, are vastly better poised for contention in 2016.
Rockies
2015 record: 68-94
SportsLine preseason 2016 playoff odds: 1.3 percent
In 2016, those 94-loss Rockies will be without Troy Tulowitzki for a full season, and Jose Reyes' status remains in doubt because of possible discipline stemming from an alleged incident of domestic violence last October. Corey Dickerson is in Tampa after a somewhat puzzling trade, and Carlos Gonzalez is now on the wrong side of 30. The rotation profiles as a bit of a disaster, thanks only in part to the tendencies of baseball played at a mile above sea level. As noted with regard to the Padres above, the NL West is too tough at the top to allow a team as flawed as this one to contend.
And there you have it: six teams sans hope in 2016. The discerning discerner will note that all of the above are NL teams. And what of the AL? There’s no team I’m comfortable excluding in February. No, I certainly don’t think that the Athletics will contend, but one can squint and see there's a reasonably balanced (if roundly unspectacular) lineup paired with a Cy Young contender in Sonny Gray. I think the A's will be a bad team in 2016, but I'm not willing to dismiss them entirely. Also, the SportsLine projections don't think much of the Tigers' hopes this season, as they're given just a 0.9 percent chance of being a part of the postseason fray. The Tigers aren't my pick in the AL Central, but I think they'll be a part of the sprawling field of AL wild card contenders. As such, I think that figure drastically undersells their chances.
So the AL, as expected, profiles as a wonderful mess. The NL, tidily enough, will have two non-entities per division. (Almost) Guaranteed!
