For most teams, 89 wins and a playoff berth would amount to a successful season. The 2024 Atlanta Braves, however, are not one of those teams. Coming off a 104-win season in 2023 and with a roster stuffed with stars, the Braves, coming into this past season, looked like MLB's best team on paper (yes, even better than the Shohei Ohtani-fueled Dodgers). However, a long run of injuries and a critical under-performance or two lopped 15 wins off that impressive 2023 tally and put the Braves' playoff hopes in doubt until the final days of the regular season. After narrowly earning a wild-card berth, the Braves were swept in the opening round by the Padres.
The biggest blows were the loss of young ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery after just a pair of starts and then the loss of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn ACL in late May. Those are two of the best performers in all of baseball, and the Braves were left without both of them when the season was just 50 games old. This is relevant to the forthcoming discussion of the Braves' 2024-25 offseason because getting Strider and Acuña back moves the needle like no other plausible move the Braves can make (we'll assume they're not a serious contender for Juan Soto's services). Great as they are, however, that convalescing duo won't fill every Braves need as they look to get back to being among the topmost tier of clubs in 2025. That means it's time to look at the to-do list faced by lead decision-maker Alex Anthopoulos as the current offseason gets serious. Let's do that now.
Key free agents
- SP Max Fried
- SP Charlie Morton
- C Travis d'Arnaud
- RP A.J. Minter
- OF Adam Duvall
- INF Gio Urshela
- RP Luke Jackson
- RP Aaron Bummer
- INF/OF Whit Merrifield
The big story for the Braves is the potential hit taken by the rotation. Yes, Strider returns to join National League Cy Young winner Chris Sale at the front end, but they're facing the potential losses of Fried and Morton. Morton is 41 years of age, but he was a reasonable effective presence for Atlanta last season. As for Fried, the 30-year-old lefty has a stellar career ERA+ of 140 across parts of eight big-league seasons. In other words, he's very much an ace when healthy, and he's fresh off an All-Star season in 2024.
One name not listed above certainly merits mentioning. That's slugging DH Marcell Ozuna. The Braves picked up their $18 million club option on him for 2025, which is a wise decision. Ozuna over the last two seasons has racked up 79 homers with an OPS+ of 148 as the Braves' DH, and his batted-ball metrics suggest more of the same is to come. That kind of production is hard to replace, and the Braves made the obvious correct move in bringing him back.
Biggest needs
Once Strider returns, the Atlanta rotation for 2025, as presently assembled, would go something like this:
- Chris Sale
- Spencer Strider
- Reynaldo López
- Spencer Scwellenbach
- Ian Anderson
That's a highly enviable unit, especially in light of López's breakout last season. However, it's also a unit shot through with injury risk from top to bottom, and that's why the Braves should be looking to fortify – and not just at the back end. Griffin Canning should be around for depth if they tender him, but the Braves really need someone of higher quality in the event that health woes strike at the front end. This is especially the case given that Anthopoulos has said Strider probably won't be ready in time for Opening Day. Re-signing Fried is the most obvious path to that, but the Braves may not be willing to pay market rates for the lefty.
Speaking of "probably not ready for Opening Day," Anthopoulos said the same about Acuña and his surgically repaired knee. You could already make the case that the Braves could use a bit of corner-outfield help even if Acuña were full go right now. That's to say nothing of the possibility that Acuña will be back on the roster and in the lineup before his body is ready to perform at a vintage level. Right now, the Braves' depth chart, or at least most interpretations of it, foresee major roles for Jerred Kelenic and Ramon Laureano. That's not ideal if you're sharing a division with the Phillies and Mets.
Elsewhere, the Braves may be ready for an upgrade at shortstop, and the potential free-agent departures noted above plus the recent knee surgery undergone by Joe Jiménez mean some bullpen help may also be in order.
The surprising decision to pass on Travis d'Arnaud's $8 million club option for 2025 plus the trade of Jorge Soler and his remaining commitment to the Angels suggest some tight payroll margins. Yes, Anthopoulos has suggested payroll will rise, but that's not much of a statement when you don't indicate by how much. As such, it's very much left to question how much the Braves are willing to spend, whether it be on external additions or on retaining their own outgoing free agents.
Possible fits
Given what seems like budget limitations, the Braves aren't going to be able to address all their needs, but given the strength of the rest of the roster – particularly once Strider and Acuña – they can get by with some neglected spots. So consider the following list of players to be of the "pick and choose" variety as opposed to a strict to-do list.
SP Max Fried, free agent: Among pitchers on the market, perhaps only Corbin Burnes is going to sign for a bigger contract this winter. Are the Braves willing to swim in those waters?
SP Roki Sasaki, free agent: Sasaki, this year's marquee talent making the leap from Japan to the U.S. major leagues, is subject to the posting system, which means he's going to sign for a bonus that doesn't come anywhere close to his market value. As such, any team regardless of payroll status is a potential destination. Why not the Braves? They surely won't be the favorites, but Sasaki would be a perfect fit.
SP Jack Flaherty, free agent: Flaherty enjoyed a resurgent season for the Tigers and Dodgers, and he'd be a real needle mover in the middle of the Atlanta rotation.
OF Teoscar Hernández, free agent: He's a reliable power source who inked a one-year free-agent contract last season, which means, at another year older, he might be a bargain once again. Then again, he's coming off one of the best seasons of his career with the Dodgers in 2024. Atlanta could use his thump in the outfield.
OF Anthony Santander, free agent: It's hard to 44 homers in your walk year and get as little attention as Santander seems to be garnering right now. He'd improve an already powerful Atlanta lineup.
SS Willy Adames, free agent: If the Braves decide to devote their resources to an upgrade at short, then Adames should be their top target. He offers rare power from the position, and over the last three seasons he's racked up 87 homers and 93 doubles with capable glove-work and some value on the bases. He's one of the most underrated players in baseball right now.
Closers Ryan Helsley, Cardinals; and Devin Williams, Brewers: We'll lump these two NL Central closers and potential trade targets together. If you want swing and miss in high-leverage spots and someone to provide an alternative to Raisel Iglesias when it comes to save opportunities, then Helsley and Williams are made to order. Such matters are fluid and uncertain, of course, but right now Williams seems like a stronger bet to be moved before the season starts.