An old rule of thumb in baseball states that every team is going to win 60 games and lose games, and that seasons are determined by what happens in the other 42 contests. That's not always true, but it's a useful enough framework for analyzing most teams -- in part because it reminds you that seasons contain good and bad stretches, and that it's not always worth getting too high or low during those moments before water stills.
For an example, consider these Philadelphia Phillies. As brilliantly as the Phillies started the season (they entered July on a 106-win pace), they've recently encountered some turbulence. The Phillies are 10-15 in their 25 contests since with a minus-27 run differential; they've lost five in a row entering Saturday; and their lead in the National League East, 9 1/2 games as recently as July 27, is down to five games over the Atlanta Braves with seven more head-to-head matchups looming over the coming weeks.
Just what's going on with the Phillies as of late? Let's break down a few reasons for their recent woes.
1. Pitching staff has collapsed
Through the first three months, the Phillies had the best pitching staff in baseball. Their 3.09 ERA ranked No. 1 by a fair margin (the second-place Los Angeles Dodgers checked in at 3.37). Their rotation had notched 49 quality starts, the most in the National League, over the course of 84 tries (58%). Their bullpen had recorded twice as many "shutdowns" (80) as "meltdowns" (40). And so on and so forth.
Since the start of July, the Phillies have seen their pitching staff crater. They rank 27th in the majors in both ERA and a FIP (a statistic that considers only strikeouts, walks, and home runs). They've notched nine quality starts in their last 25 attempts (36%). Their relievers have more "meltdowns" than "shutdowns." Every statistic and area that the Phillies dominated in the early going has since turned into a weakness.
It's not just that the Phillies have suffered some injuries to their staff, though they did lose both Spencer Turnbull and Taijuan Walker to the IL in June's final days. Ranger Suárez has since joined them on the shelf, but not before posting a 6.61 ERA in three starts since July 1. Cristopher Sánchez has fared about as poorly in his last five starts, putting up a 6.59 ERA. Even Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have seen their ERA rise.
Those woes extend to the bullpen. Matt Strahm has blown three saves over his last 10 appearances. José Alvarado has surrendered 17 baserunners (and nine runs) in his most recent 9 2/3 innings. José Ruiz and Orion Kerkering have combined for six meltdowns and two shutdowns.
You get the point: the Phillies' pitching struggles aren't because of one or two players stringing together a few poor efforts; it's been close to a staff-wide epidemic.
2. Cold stretches from Harper, other key hitters
Comparatively, the Phillies offense hasn't been as bad as their pitching staff. They've still scuffled, tying for 19th in the majors in wRC+ since July 1 -- for reference, the Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates are the teams they're deadlocked with. There've been bright spots in the Phillies lineup: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Bohm in particular, with Nick Castellanos and Weston Wilson providing some thump.
Alas, some of the Phillies' biggest stars have had trouble breaking out of slumps.
To wit, Bryce Harper has been Philadelphia's least productive regular over the last month-plus. How cold has Harper been? Let's put it this way: his 54 wRC+ has him sandwiched between Garrett Stubbs and Cristian Pache. No disrespect to Stubbs or Pache, but we think all parties would agree that's not the kind of company you want Harper to keep statistically. Without getting too far into the weeds, Harper's biggest issue appears to be his batted-ball spray; he's been hitting the ball hard, but not within the trajectory band where he does his most significant damage. Take a look:
| Split | Exit velocity | 95 mph+% | Launch angle | LA 10-30 degrees% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Before July 1 | 91.3 mph | 48.1% | 13.4 degrees | 34.1% |
Since July 1 | 90.5 mph | 50.9% | 16 degrees | 17% |
Harper isn't the only key Phillies player having a bad time at the plate as of late. J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Marsh, Edmundo Sosa, and Bryson Stott all have wRC+ between 70 and 80 over that same period of time. That leaves the Phillies starting four players on a daily basis, including the third-slot hitter, who have been at least 20% worse than the league-average hitter for a month now. It's tough to stack runs when that's the case.
3. Stiff competition
We mentioned that the Phillies have lost five in a row coming into play on Saturday. The teams they've faced during that stretch are all likely to make the playoffs: the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, and Seattle Mariners. The immediate road isn't going to get much easier, either, with an upcoming series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks taking the Phillies through next weekend.
There's a possibility things get a little worse before they get better for the Phillies.
Let's be clear: we're not worried about the Phillies' ability to beat good teams. Even now, with their recent struggles, they have the fifth best winning percentage against teams with records at or above .500. We introduce this factor only because it makes a certain kind of sense that the Phillies would find themselves struggling to win games when they're playing their worst ball of the year and they're facing good teams. It would be overly simplistic to write that good teams are good teams because they take advantage of mistakes or opportunities that bad team's don't -- but there's truth to it.
It's a long season. These kinds of slumps happen, even to good teams. If you're a Phillies fan, all you can do is hope that better days are coming soon -- and that these recent struggles are completely out of their system by the time October arrives.
