As of Thursday night's ritual abuse administered by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets find themselves down 3-1 in the best-of-seven National League Championship Series and thus on the cusp of elimination. This means that, in order to claim the pennant for the first time since 2015, the Mets must beat the Dodgers three straight times. Otherwise, their 2024 season is over.
As you would expect, history stands athwart the Mets' current efforts. According to WhoWins.com, teams down 3-1 in best-of-seven MLB postseason series go on to win those series just 15.1% of the time. Those in the Mets' specific circumstances -- i.e., opening the series on the road -- have had it slightly worse. Just 13.2% of such teams have come back from down 3-1 to win the series in question. That stands to reason, as a team down 3-1 without home-field advantage in the series must win Game 5 at home and then take the final two contests on the road.
Overall, 93 teams have been down 3-1 in MLB playoff series, and just 14 of them achieved a successful comeback. However, we're going to narrow our focus a bit to reflect the Mets' exact current straits. In all, 53 teams have faced the Mets' exact current circumstances, meaning they were down 3-1 without home-field advantage in the series, and just seven have managed to prevail in the series.
Now let's have a quick look at those seven models of the past to whom the 2024 Mets can turn to for inspiration.
2016 World Series: Chicago Cubs over Cleveland Indians
They fell behind Cleveland 3-1 before taking Game 5 at home and then Games 6 and 7 at Progressive Field. The decisive Game 7, of course, stands as one of the greatest and most white-knuckled games ever played.
2004 ALCS: Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees
You know all about this one. The '04 Sox didn't just come back from down 3-1, they became the first and only team to come back from down 3-0 to win a best-of-seven series. Coincidentally, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts played a key role in that miracle of a comeback. He's, of course, hoping not to be on the other side of such miracles this time around.
2003 NLCS: Florida Marlins over Chicago Cubs
Yes, before the Cubs tooketh under such circumstances, they gaveth away. The '03 Marlins barged back from down 3-1 in the NLCS to win the final two games of the series in Wrigley. Game 6 of this series is of course known as the Steve Bartman Alex Gonzalez game.
1985 ALCS: Kansas City Royals over Toronto Blue Jays
KC's pitching turned out to be the story of this comeback. Over the final must-win games of the series, the Royals permitted a total of just five runs. The Royals that year would go on to mound another 3-1 comeback in the World Series against the Cardinals, but KC enjoyed home-field advantage in that series.
1979 World Series: Pittsburgh Pirates over Baltimore Orioles
Before KC pitching came along in the '85 ALCS, the '79 Pirates set the standard. They allowed exactly two runs total to the Orioles over the final three games of the series. Willie Stargell's homer in Game 7 helped him become the first player ever to win NL MVP, NLCS MVP, and World Series MVP honors in the same season.
1968 World Series: Detroit Tigers over St. Louis Cardinals
Mickey Lolich twirled a memorable gem in Game 7 and did so on just two days of rest. An outfield misplay by Curt Flood opened the doors for Detroit to complete the unlikely comeback.
1958 World Series: New York Yankees over Milwaukee Braves
This one was a rematch of the '57 World Series, in which the Braves pulled off the upset. The '58 edition looked like it was bound for a similar outcome. However, the Yankees mounted the comeback, as they managed to solve the Braves' imposing one-two punch of Warren Spahn and Lew Burdette during the back half of the series.
And there you have it. If the Mets are to become miracle team No. 8, then they'll have to do a better job of keeping Dodger runs off the board. Through the first four games of the series, they've given up a whopping 30 runs to L.A. Speaking of which, here's what we wrote about the Mets when assigning one question to all four remaining playoff teams in advance of Friday's action:
The Mets' pitching has been a disaster thus far in the NLCS. Through the first four games of the series, the Mets are lugging around a team ERA of 6.43, and in 35 innings of work they've managed to walk 31 batters (!). That ERA doesn't reflect the five unearned runs allowed by the Mets' pitching and defense. Suffice it to say, it's difficult to win any series when you're hemorrhaging runs to such an extent. It's also been a staff-wide meltdown for the Mets. The Mets' starters in this series have teamed up for an ERA of 6.28 with 12 strikeouts and 16 walks in 14 1/3 innings. The New York bullpen, meantime, has an NLCS ERA of 6.53 with 24 strikeouts and 15 walks in 20 2/3 innings. You're not going to win many series with run prevention like that.
To state the obvious, that trend has to change immediately if the Queenslanders are going to make the World Series. It's worth noting that the Mets this season have faced long odds time and again, and yet here they still are. They were 11 games under .500 as late as June 2. During the regular season, the Mets led the majors in both comeback wins and ninth-inning comebacks. That general trend held late in the season and in the Wild Card Series win over the Brewers. Yes, it's been a season of miracles for the Mets, but they need one more. Actually, check that. They need three more.